VZCZCXRO8849
PP RUEHPT
DE RUEHBY #0956 2660650
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 220650Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA ZDK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0218
INFO RUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 5586
RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 3859
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 3789
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS CANBERRA 000956 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: TURNBULL GIVES LIBERALS A BOOST IN THE POLLS 
 
REF: CANBERRA 915 
 
 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Two opinion polls released September 22 
suggest the Liberal Party made the right decision installing 
Malcolm Turnbull as leader.  Although the Australian Labor 
Party (ALP) remains well in front, one poll has the ALP's 
support at its lowest since November 2006, and the other has 
Turnbull leading Rudd on the issue of the economic 
management.  The polls have provided a morale boost to the 
Liberals, who have begun attacking Rudd over the economy and 
his numerous overseas trips.  With Rudd leaving September 22 
on a three-day trip to UNGA, he is vulnerable to criticism 
that he should not be leaving Australia in the middle of a 
global financial crisis.  END SUMMARY 
 
THE POLLS 
 
¶2. (U) A Newspoll conducted 19-21 September (after Turnbull 
became Opposition Leader on September 16, see reftel) has the 
ALP's lead dropping from 56-44 to 55-45 on the two-party 
preferred vote.  Rudd still holds a big lead as preferred 
prime minister, 54-24, but this new result is eight points 
better for the Liberals than it had been under its former 
leader Brendan Nelson.  On the issue of the economy, Turnbull 
leads Rudd 43-41 (the first time Rudd has trailed on this 
issue since becoming Prime Minister).  An AC Nielsen Poll 
conducted September 18-20 showed the ALP's margin falling 
from 55-45 to 52-48 and Rudd's lead as preferred Prime 
Minister dropping to 56-33 from 65-19.  The Coalition even 
leads on a head-to-head basis against the ALP, 42 to 41 
percent.  This is the ALP's worst AC Nielsen poll result 
under Rudd, and the worst since November 2006 when, under Kim 
Beazley, it also led 52-48. 
 
RUDD UNDER FIRE 
 
¶3. (U) Rudd is under fire from the Opposition and some in the 
media for deciding to attend this week's meeting of the 
General Assembly - his 16th overseas trip since becoming 
Prime Minister only 10 months ago.  Turnbull has accused Rudd 
of "mistaking motion for action" and behaving like a "prime 
tourist" rather than a Prime Minister.  Since he became 
leader, Turnbull has primarily attacked Rudd on the economy, 
alleging a lack of "economic leadership."  He is now arguing 
that with the international economic situation so precarious, 
the Prime Minister should be in Australia, not heading to New 
York.  Turnbull is also continuing Nelson's attacks on Rudd 
over his refusal to immediately raise the payments for single 
old-age pensioners. 
 
LIBERALS LOOKING MORE COMPETITIVE 
 
¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: There is nothing unexpected about these 
poll results; most new leaders give their parties a bounce. 
Turnbull assumes the leadership at a fortunate time. 
Economic management - traditionally the Coalition's strong 
suit - is moving to center stage in the political debate. 
Frustration is also growing in the media at the Prime 
Minister's cautious, bland, and bureaucratic approach.  The 
ascension of Turnbull, a strong media performer, may force 
the Prime Minister to reassess his style.  Turnbull has made 
the Coalition competitive, but history is against his beating 
Rudd.  No first-term government has lost reelection since 
¶1931. 
 
MCCALLUM