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RUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 5573
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000915 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: MALCOLM TURNBULL NEW OPPOSITION LEADER 
 
REF: CANBERRA 901 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In a leadership vote by the Liberal Party 
federal caucus on September 16, Shadow Treasurer Malcolm 
Turnbull beat incumbent Liberal Party Leader Brendan Nelson 
45-41.  He is now the head of the Liberal Party and 
Opposition Leader in the Parliament.  After former Treasurer 
Peter Costello stated on September 11 that he had no interest 
in the Liberal leadership (reftel), it was generally assumed 
that the ambitious Turnbull would challenge Nelson before the 
end of the year.  Nelson, sick of leadership speculation and 
hoping to catch Turnbull offguard, called for a vote on his 
leadership.  The result is a defeat for the Right Wing of the 
Liberal Party, as well as for Costello, who campaigned for 
Nelson. Turnbull must now attempt to unite a divided party 
and choose a shadow ministry.  END SUMMARY 
 
NELSON SHOCKS COLLEAGUES 
 
¶2. (SBU) At 5:00pm on September 15, Nelson shocked colleagues 
by calling a Liberal Party caucus meeting for 6:30pm that 
day.  At that meeting, Nelson gave an emotional speech in 
which he lashed out at the "undermining" of his leadership 
and called for a tougher stance opposing the Government's 
plans on emissions trading.  He announced that he would be 
declaring the leadership vacant at the following morning's 
regularly-scheduled caucus meeting.  Later that evening, 
Turnbull confirmed he would be standing.  The hastily-called 
ballot was evidently a tactic to catch Turnbull off-guard and 
limit his ability to accumulate support.  Turnbull had just 
returned on Sunday, September 14, from a family holiday in 
Europe and he reportedly had no intention of launching a 
leadership challenge for at least two weeks.  He had judged 
that it would be in his interest to be a team player during 
the media fallout from this week's launch of the Costello's 
memoirs. 
 
GAME ON 
 
¶3. (SBU) With less than a day until the ballot, Turnbull and 
his supporters refrained from addressing the media, instead 
assiduously working the phones to gather numbers.  Nelson 
made few calls to supporters, relying primarily on his caucus 
speech, which both camps agree was one of his best.  Several 
MPs publicly declared their support for Nelson, including 
Costello supporter (and former Costello adviser) Senator 
Mitch Fifield.  Nelson's supporters argued that with Costello 
no longer looming in the background, Nelson deserved time to 
prove himself in "clean air."  Costello himself, who has made 
no secret of his dislike for Turnbull, voted for Nelson, 
although he did not publicly reveal this. 
 
TURNBULL TAKES OVER, NELSON GOES TO THE BACKBENCH 
 
¶4. (SBU) Following a short meeting of Liberal MPs and 
Senators at 9:00am on September 16, it was announced that 
Turnbull had defeated Nelson 45-41.  At his press conference, 
Turnbull said he believed in the Liberal values of 
opportunity, freedom and fairness.  He declared the role of 
government is to help people achieve their best, as opposed 
to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd who "believes government knows 
best."  Turnbull also attacked the Rudd government's lack of 
"strong leadership" on the economy.  He said he had asked 
Nelson to accept a position in the new shadow cabinet but the 
former Opposition Leader had declined the offer. 
 
GOOD NEWS FOR THE LIBERAL PARTY 
 
¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: This change will help the Liberal Party. 
Nelson showed no likelihood of improving in the polls, and a 
victory by him would not have ended leadership speculation. 
Qvictory by him would not have ended leadership speculation. 
Importantly, the media appear to regard Turnbull, unlike 
Nelson, as a serious contender.  Turnbull was authoritative, 
forceful and persuasive at his press conference following the 
vote and he appears to many observers to have the intangible 
qualities of leadership that Nelson lacked.  On the other 
hand, the impatient, abrasive Turnbull could learn from 
Nelson's consultative approach with his colleagues. 
Turnbull, having won by such a slim margin, will have to try 
to unite the Liberals, something Nelson (who defeated 
Turnbull by a similar margin last year) was unable to do. 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: Turnbull is very popular with the 
business community and his election as leader (along with the 
ascension of the Liberals in Western Australia) should 
dramatically improve Liberal Party fundraising.  Turnbull is 
a strong supporter of Australia becoming a republic, and in 
the 1990s famously led the republic fight, ultimately losing 
 
CANBERRA 00000915  002 OF 002 
 
 
to then Prime Minister John Howard.  As Costello noted today 
at an event promoting his memoirs, a majority of Liberal 
Party members are monarchists and Turnbull will have to 
reconcile his beliefs with theirs, if he decides to pursue 
the issue.   Turnbull, a social and economic liberal, will 
most likely stick closer to the government than Nelson did on 
climate change and social issues, but he will look for ways 
to differentiate the Opposition's position on emissions 
trading.  His main weapon against the Rudd government will be 
economic management. 
 
 
MCCALLUM