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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000896 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: IS THE TIDE SHIFTING AGAINST STATE LABOR 
GOVERNMENTS? 
 
REF: CANBERRA 864 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Recent swings against the Australian Labor 
Party (ALP) in the Western Australian (WA) and Northern 
Territory (NT) state elections may indicate that voters are 
tiring of long-serving Labor governments around Australia. 
On August 9, in NT, there was a nine percent swing against 
the ALP, shocking many observers who had expected the Labor 
government to lose only a few seats.  While Labor was able to 
remain in power in NT, it suffered a seven percent swing 
against it in the September 6 WA state elections.  Although 
there are six seats still undecided, Labor lost its majority 
in parliament and may now face a Liberal-National Party 
coalition government (see Perth septel).  Despite the fact 
that the Rudd Government remains very popular in national 
opinion polls, these results, particularly in WA, have given 
the federal Liberal-National Party Coalition a big 
psychological boost.  In two federal parliamentary 
by-elections on September 6, as expected, the Liberal Party 
held Alexander Downer's seat of Mayo in South Australia and 
an independent won a New South Wales seat formerly held by 
the National Party (reftel). 
 
¶2. (SBU) If the Liberal and National parties form a 
government in WA (the two parties are in coalition federally 
but not necessarily in all states), it will end the dominance 
of the Labor Party in state and federal government.  Some 
observers maintain that these state election results are a 
warning to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd that voters will punish 
governments that do not deliver, and who call early elections 
(as WA Labor Premier Alan Carpenter and NT Chief Minister 
Paul Henderson both did).  Others have suggested the votes 
reflect uneasiness about wall-to-wall ALP governments. 
Whatever the meaning of these results, it is clear Labor 
premiers will now be focusing on their political survival, 
which will affect how they view Kevin Rudd's attempts at 
"cooperative federalism" with the states. END SUMMARY 
 
NORTHERN TERRITORY AND WESTERN AUSTRALIAN SHOCKS FOR ALP 
 
¶3. (U) In the August 9 NT state elections, the nine percent 
swing against the ALP cost it six seats, leaving it with a 
one-seat majority in the 25-seat parliament.  Most political 
observers had expected the ALP to lose 3-5 seats.  Instead, 
the ALP received only 43 percent of the primary vote while 
the Country Liberal Party won 45.6 percent. 
 
¶4. (U) In WA, ALP Premier Alan Carpenter called an early 
election after the opposition Liberal Party changed leaders. 
The move backfired as the voters blamed Carpenter for having 
to vote early, and the new Liberal leader was much more 
credible than his predecessor.  The swing against the ALP was 
seven percent, much greater than expected, and the ALP may 
not be able to form a government once the counting is 
finished (septel).  At this point, the conservative National 
Party holds the balance of power in the new parliament and 
the betting is that it is more likely to form a coalition 
with its traditional conservative ally the Liberal Party. 
 
FEDERAL BY-ELECTIONS RESULTS AS PREDICTED 
 
¶5. (U) In the federal by-elections in the seats of Mayo in 
South Australia and Lyne in NSW there were no surprises. 
Liberal Party candidate and former Howard staffer Jamie 
Briggs beat Green Party and Family First candidates to win 
the seat, although the Green candidate ran a strong second 
with over 46 percent of the final vote.  Extremely popular 
Qwith over 46 percent of the final vote.  Extremely popular 
former state politician Rob Oakeshott, running as an 
independent, won the seat of Lyne in coastal NSW.  While a 
demographic shift meant that Lyne was no longer a safe seat 
for the National Party, Oakeshott won going away (see 
reftel). 
 
PSYCHOLOGICAL BOOST FOR COALITION 
 
¶6. (SBU) Last week, high-profile Liberal MP Tony Abbott told 
us a Liberal victory in the Western Australian election would 
be a "big psychological boost" for the Federal Coalition.  He 
also said that conventional wisdom was that most governments 
get two terms, but that winning a third is a big challenge. 
As was the case federally in 2007, voters in the Northern 
Territory and Western Australia turned on long-serving 
governments.  Following the Western Australian election, some 
Coalition MPs portrayed the result as a backlash against 
Rudd. Editor-at-Large of "The Australian" newspaper Paul 
Kelly contended that the "vote in Western Australia 
highlights not just state ALP failure but a visceral national 
 
CANBERRA 00000896  002 OF 002 
 
 
dislike of the coast-to-coast dominance of the Labor Party." 
 
LONG-SERVING GOVERNMENTS 
 
¶7. (SBU) The ALP has been in power in WA and NT since 2001, 
in NSW since 1995, and in Tasmania since 1998.  The 
Queensland ALP has run the state since 1998, and Labor has 
ruled Victoria since 1999, the ACT since 2001 and South 
Australia since 2002.  Popular premiers Steve Bracks in 
Victoria and Peter Beattie in Queensland both resigned last 
year, replaced by competent administrators who are not as 
popular with the voters. 
 
WARNINGS FOR RUDD 
 
¶8. (SBU) Melbourne's tabloid the Herald Sun claimed the 
Western Australian election reflected on the Rudd government: 
"It is clear that the Rudd Government's honeymoon with voters 
is over ... As Labor battles a hostile Senate, an emerging 
criticism of Mr Rudd is that he is more of a talker than a 
doer."  The Sydney Morning Herald's political editor, Peter 
Hartcher, wrote: "for the Rudd government, which holds power 
with a margin of two per cent, the implication is clear. The 
state Labor model of the status-quo plus spin - is a bankrupt 
one.  Solve problems, or we'll be cranky."  It is likely 
there will be five more long-serving ALP state and territory 
governments facing the voters before the next federal poll. 
There will almost certainly be swings against the ALP in each 
one. 
 
COMMENT: NO NEED FOR RUDD TO PANIC 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Australian's Paul Kelly likely exaggerates the 
impact of "wall-to-wall" ALP governments on voting intention. 
 The Western Australian ALP government has long been plagued 
with incompetence and scandal.  The result would have been 
similar even if the Coalition were still in power in 
Canberra.  In state elections, state issues dominate.  A big 
factor in WA seems to have been the installation of a 
credible alternative premier in the Liberal Party's Colin 
Barnett.  The incompetent, long-serving ALP government in NSW 
only survived the 2007 election because of Workchoices, and 
the fact that Opposition Leader Peter Debnam was not seen as 
a credible alternative by the voters.  Rudd continues to 
dominate the opinion polls and enjoys strong support for the 
big item of his first term - an emissions trading scheme. 
The WA result is a reminder to Rudd that voters severely 
punish poor performance and scandal, and a reminder to the 
Liberal Party that voters are more likely to make a change if 
they feel the opposition has a credible leader. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Ironically, it might even be in Rudd's interest to 
play hardball with unpopular state governments, which he is 
doing on schools standards and hospitals, for example.  While 
the state ALP governments may believe they need to 
demonstrate their independence from Rudd, they may also feel 
they need some of his popularity in order to survive another 
election.  For the Liberal Party, out of office everywhere in 
Australia, a return to government in Western Australia would 
be a huge boost, particularly for the Party's ability to 
fundraise. 
 
MCCALLUM