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PP RUEHPT
DE RUEHBY #0864 2470832
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 030832Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0044
INFO RUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 5516
RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 3789
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 3717
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS CANBERRA 000864 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: MIXED RESULTS FOR OPPOSITION IN WEEKEND 
BY-ELECTIONS 
 
REF: CANBERRA 653 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: By-elections in two federal parliamentary 
seats, caused by the resignation of former foreign minister 
Alexander Downer and former leader of the National Party Mark 
Vaile, will be held on Saturday September 6.  The Liberal 
Party is expected to comfortably retain Downer's seat of 
Mayo, in Adelaide, while The Nationals are expected to lose 
the seat of Lyne, in northern New South Wales, to an 
independent.  The Australian Labor Party (ALP) is not 
contesting either seat, since its chances of victory in these 
conservative electorates are very low. END SUMMARY. 
 
NEW BLOOD FOR LIBERALS 
 
¶2. (SBU) The by-election for the seat of Mayo, in the 
Adelaide Hills, was caused by the resignation of former 
Foreign Minister Alexander Downer.  It will almost certainly 
be retained by the Liberal Party.  In the 2007 election, 
Downer won with 51 percent of first preferences (after 
distribution of preferences 57/43 against the ALP).  Knowing 
the seat is virtually unwinnable, the ALP decided not contest 
the election because, as one South Australian ALP contact 
said, it would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to run a 
credible campaign.  The Liberals' candidate is Jamie Briggs, 
31, a former workplace relations adviser to ex-Prime Minister 
John Howard.  In spite of controversy over his role in 
WorkChoices, Briggs should comfortably win the seat. 
 
COALITION LIKELY TO LOSE SEAT 
 
¶3. (SBU) The by-election for the seat of Lyne, in northern 
New South Wales, was caused by the resignation of former 
Howard Government Deputy Prime Minister and leader of The 
Nationals, Mark Vaile.  In the 2007 election, Vaile won the 
seat with 52 percent of first preferences (after distribution 
of preferences 63/37 against the ALP).  Like Mayo, the ALP is 
not wasting its time on a futile cause.  At face value, The 
Nationals should hold this seat.  However, most observers are 
predicting independent candidate Rob Oakeshott will win 
comfortably. 
 
¶4. In the 2007 New South Wales state election, Oakeshott won 
a huge 67 percent of first preferences, while the Nationals 
won only 19 percent and the ALP 9 percent.  Oakeshott's 
former state seat of Port Macquarie takes in a around half 
the voters of Lyne.  The Liberals seriously considered 
running in Lyne but decided not to after Oakeshott announced 
his candidacy.  Oakeshott entered the NSW parliament in 1996 
as a National and is a former adviser to Vaile. The 
Nationals' candidate is Rob Drew, who was sacked in February 
as Mayor of Port Macquarie by the NSW government as a result 
of alleged financial mismanagement. 
 
NO MORALE BOOST FOR COALITION 
 
¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: If results are as expected, there will be 
significant discussion over the future of The Nationals, and 
the desirability of a federal merger with the Liberals.  Lyne 
is a perfect example of why the National Party is declining. 
A coastal NSW seat that was once a National Party stronghold, 
Lyne has experienced an influx of retirees and younger voters 
and a decline in the agricultural sector.  Mark Vaile, as a 
long-serving member, was able to hold the seat for the 
Nationals but now that he has gone, the party has no 
advantage.  The loss of Lyne will reduce the Coalition's 
numbers in the House of Representatives to 64 seats and leave 
The Nationals' with only nine members.  It will bring the 
number of independents to three, all former Nationals. 
Unlike the Gippsland by-election two months ago (reftel), 
neither of these by-elections will provide a morale boost for 
Qneither of these by-elections will provide a morale boost for 
the Coalition.  With the ALP not contesting, the Western 
Australian state election, held on the same day (septel), 
will have greater implications for the Rudd government. 
 
MCCALLUM