VZCZCXRO5628
PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHLB #1371/01 2620906
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 180906Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3087
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2938
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3152
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001371 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA 
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK 
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY 
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER 
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR EINV ZP LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MINISTER LAHOUD: WINNING ELECTIONS IS 
NECESSARY TO PRESERVE STATUS QUO 
 
REF: A. BEIRUT 1358 
     ¶B. BEIRUT 1360 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
¶1. (C) March 14 Minister of State Nassib Lahoud assured the 
Ambassador in a September 17 meeting that the March 14 
alliance is aware that it must win the spring 2009 
parliamentary elections "to preserve status quo," noting that 
a loss would worsen the situation in Lebanon.  He spoke of 
potential economic development projects that March 14 could 
initiate prior to the elections, fostered by Gulf 
investments.  Lahoud applauded President Michel Sleiman's 
focus on the national defense strategy in his opening remarks 
at the September 16 launch of the National Dialogue, yet 
expressed concern that expanding the agenda would draw focus 
away from Hizballah's weapons.  Withholding comment on Druze 
leader Walid Jumblatt's reconciliation efforts with 
Hizballah, Lahoud noted that reconciliation in and of itself 
was not harmful.  End summary. 
 
MARCH 14 NEEDS TO 
WIN THE ELECTIONS 
----------------- 
 
¶2. (C) March 14 Minister of State Nassib Lahoud assured the 
Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, in a September 17 meeting 
that the March 14 alliance does not face "major differences" 
among its members, but rather is united by the common 
challenge of winning the spring 2009 parliamentary elections. 
 He said gravely, "If we (March 14) win the elections, then 
we will preserve status quo.  If we lose, the situation will 
worsen." 
 
¶3. (C) He explained that the alliance was planning to launch 
its 2009 election campaign formally in November, and in the 
meantime was working to identify candidates.  He continued, 
"People here need to see unified lists with intelligent 
candidates."  He relayed that March 14 may turn to 
independent candidates in areas where it will face strong 
competition.  It remained unclear which direction independent 
MP Michel Murr and his deputies will go, he said, predicting 
that Murr will wait to decide on which list he will run. 
 
CONTEMPLATING 
DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS 
-------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Lahoud suggested that March 14 do what it can to 
implement some large-scale development projects in advance of 
the elections, suggesting forming a public television 
network, developing coastal areas, establishing an economic 
free-zone in Tripoli, and starting technology cities 
throughout the country. 
 
¶5. (C) Instead of soliciting Gulf countries for financial 
assistance, he reasoned, Lebanon should offer investment 
opportunities that will entice their involvement.  He 
suggested Lebanon target Qatar, in particular, noting that 
Qatari interest will generate other Gulf interest in Lebanon. 
 He added that Qatar, coupled with the UAE (which he 
complained was not doing enough for Lebanon), would be good 
candidates for providing defense assistance to Lebanon. 
 
NATIONAL DIALOGUE: A  FOR SLEIMAN; 
OPPOSITION TRYING TO AVOID ARMS DISCUSSION 
------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Applauding President Michel Sleiman's opening remarks 
at the previous day's launch of the National Dialogue (Ref 
A), Lahoud said he appreciated Sleiman's prioritization of 
the national defense strategy.  He said that Sleiman has a 
handful of intellectuals focused on the National Dialogue 
process, headed by Nazem Khoury.  According to Lahoud, these 
advisors include Ghaleb Mahmasani, Walid Moubarak, Adnan 
Sayyed Hussein, and Ambassador Naji Abi Assi, who Lahoud 
remarked was "very good, thorough." 
 
BEIRUT 00001371  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7. (C) Reporting that Agriculture Minister Elie Skaff had 
tried to add discussion on the Council for Development and 
Reconstruction (CDR) to the agenda, Lahoud concluded that the 
opposition is attempting to draw focus away from the defense 
strategy and Hizballah's weapons by flooding the agenda with 
irrelevant items.  Acknowledging that the National Dialogue 
concept is open-ended and could continue indefinitely, Lahoud 
stressed that the topic of Hizballah's weapons is intended 
for the National Dialogue.  There are other institutions such 
as the cabinet and parliament to handle other issues, he 
reasoned, and tackling Hizballah's weapons would only disable 
these other institutions. 
 
MOSTLY SILENT ON JUMBLATT'S 
RECONCILIATION WITH HIZBALLAH 
----------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Commenting on the September 15 reconciliation meeting 
between representatives from Druze leader Walid Jumblatt's 
bloc and Hizballah (Ref B), Lahoud asked rhetorically why was 
it acceptable for reconciliation between Sunnis and Hizballah 
in Tripoli, but not between the Druze and Hizballah?  Saying 
little else, Lahoud noted that the comments Jumblatt made to 
al-Akhbar about accommodating Hizballah did not differ much 
from what he heard Jumblatt was saying privately. 
SISON