VZCZCXRO0923
RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHWD #0266/01 2411641
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 281641Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0044
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICA DEV COM COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WINDHOEK 000266 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S AND INR 
STATE PASS TO USAID 
 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL: 08/28/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR WA
SUBJECT:  AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH OPPOSITION POLITICIAN 
 
Classified By:  Ambassador Mathieu, for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
Summary 
----------- 
 
¶1.  (C)  Ambassador Mathieu and Poloff met on August 27 with Congress 
of Democrats (COD) Member of Parliament Nora Schimming-Chase. 
Schimming-Chase predicted that the current leadership impasse between 
factions of the COD would be resolved by November and the party would 
be united going into the 2009 elections.  Schimming-Chase did not 
assess that the contest would be free and fair and stated that 
opposition parties needed to coordinate their 2009 election 
strategies to break SWAPO's absolute majority in Parliament. 
Schimming-Chase, who also serves as the vice-chairperson of the 
Southern African Development Community-Parliamentary Forum (SADC-PF), 
noted that the organization will find it difficult to monitor 
upcoming elections in Angola, Namibia, Swaziland and Zambia, as USAID 
has frozen aid to the organization.   The Member of Parliament noted 
that tensions within SWAPO were evident, as party members accused one 
another of having close ties to the opposition Rally for Democracy 
and Progress (RDP).   Schimming-Chase expressed concern over recent 
rhetoric and actions from some SWAPO politicians, and the negative 
impact on the political environment.   End Summary 
 
¶2.  (U) Ambassador Mathieu and Poloff met on August 27 with prominent 
independence activist and Member of Parliament from the opposition 
Congress of Democrats (COD) Nora Schimming-Chase.  Schimming-Chase 
leads one of two factions vying for control of the COD following a 
contested party congress in March 2007; the other faction is headed 
by Parliamentarian Ben Ulenga. 
 
Impasse Resolved by November? 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Schimming-Chase predicted that the current impasse between 
factions of the COD would be resolved through a party congress by 
November and that the party would be united going into the 2009 
elections.   She noted that the leadership struggle between the two 
factions had resulted in the party losing standing and respect in 
Parliament, although she noted that support for the party on the 
ground remained strong.  She acknowledged, though, that the continued 
infighting has the party's supporters anxious, especially with an 
election slated for next year.  The parliamentarian attributed much 
of the party's support to the multi-ethnic character of the 
organization, asserting that the COD was the only party in Namibia 
not organized along ethnic lines.  She declared that, in spite of the 
recent tensions within the party, observers recognize the COD's 
positive contributions to parliamentary debates. 
 
Voter Irregularities Likely in 2009 
----------------------------------------- 
¶4.  (C)  Schimming-Chase was skeptical that the 2009 elections would 
be free and fair.  She noted that voting irregularities had occurred 
in 2004, but pointed out that the COD could not afford to continue 
fighting the contested results in court.  The government, she said, 
does not comply with SADC and African Union (AU) election standards 
it has endorsed, as cast ballots in Namibia are not counted the same 
day and results are not announced as they are received. 
 
¶5.  (C) Declaring that opposition parties would benefit from 
coordinating their 2009 election strategies to break SWAPO's absolute 
majority in Parliament, Schimming-Chase reported that the RDP had 
approached the COD to discuss election-related cooperation.  The 
parliamentarian thought opposition parties could collaborate 
particularly in pressing for greater transparency in the electoral 
process and in ensuring an opposition election monitor presence at 
every polling place in the country.   Schimming-Chase encouraged the 
U.S. to help train opposition election monitors, citing the positive 
role played by well-trained election observers during Zimbabwe's most 
recent election. 
 
Africa Loses an Election Monitor 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Schimming-Chase, who serves also as the vice-chairperson of 
SADC-PF, told us the organization will likely not monitor Namibia's 
election, as USAID has frozen the organization's funding.  She stated 
that SADC-PF members were working to resolve the issues that had 
resulted in the freezing of the funds, and she anticipated that 
senior SADC-PF officials may call an emergency meeting of the 
executive to discuss the matter.  The funding freeze has derailed the 
organization's plans to monitor upcoming elections in Angola, 
Swaziland, and Zambia, she said. 
 
 
 
Tensions within SWAPO Evident 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
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¶7.  (C) The Member of Parliament noted that tensions within SWAPO 
were evident, as party members accuse one another of being RPD 
sympathizers.  She thought the RDP posed a serious challenge to 
SWAPO's electoral dominance in the voter-rich north of the country. 
She stated that the tensions within the ruling party were most 
apparent on the floor of Parliament. 
 
¶8.  (C) Echoing the views of many of her peers, Schimming-Chase 
expressed concern over SWAPO's recent undemocratic rhetoric and 
actions.  She expressed her view that troubling statements from some 
senior SWAPO politicians were part of a broader strategy by the 
ruling party to intimidate and harass opposition party members and 
supporters, as party and government leaders did not chastise those 
responsible. 
 
Comment 
----------- 
 
¶9.  (U) Shimming-Chase, a veteran of Namibia's independence movement, 
clearly believed that Namibia is at a critical political crossroads, 
where the country could either continue to strengthen its democratic 
institutions, or, alternatively, begin to move down a path toward 
autocracy.    Although unhappy with what she saw as a worsening 
political environment, she was hopeful that opposition parties, with 
the help of church groups that earlier played a significant and 
positive role in Namibia's independence struggle, could help ensure 
that the country moves down the former path rather than the latter. 
 
MATHIEU