VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTV #1657/01 2140950
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 010950Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7787
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAHQA/HQ USAF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEADWD/DA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/CNO WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI PRIORITY 4216
RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS PRIORITY 0823
RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN PRIORITY 4534
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 4994
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT PRIORITY 4208
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 2534
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 4966
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1822
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0034
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT PRIORITY 8819
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 6299
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH PRIORITY 1216
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY 5321
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 7279
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM PRIORITY 0195
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/COMSIXTHFLT  PRIORITY

UNCLAS TEL AVIV 001657 
 
STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD 
 
WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM 
NSC FOR NEA STAFF 
 
SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA 
HQ USAF FOR XOXX 
DA WASHDC FOR SASA 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR PA 
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL FOR POLAD/USIA ADVISOR 
COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE FOR PAO/POLAD 
COMSIXTHFLT FOR 019 
 
JERUSALEM ALSO ICD 
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL 
PARIS ALSO FOR POL 
ROME FOR MFO 
 
SIPDIS 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS
 
SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION 
 
-------------------------------- 
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT: 
-------------------------------- 
 
Mideast 
 
------------------------- 
Key stories in the media: 
------------------------- 
 
Ha'aretz's poll found that Kadima, led by Tzipi Livni, would beat 
Likud.  A Maariv survey indicates that Kadima voters are "fleeing" 
to Likud.  A Yediot poll shows Livni well ahead of Shaul Mofaz in 
the Kadima primaries.  (Main poll findings: See below.)  The 
Jerusalem Post reported that it now seems unlikely that whoever wins 
the Kadima race will be able to form a new coalition.  Makor 
Rishon-Hatzofe believes that the Knesset will dissolve itself after 
the Kadima primaries. 
 
Ha'aretz and Yediot reported that after his speech on Wednesday, PM 
Ehud Olmert is actually convinced that public approval for him to 
move forward on the peace process has increased.  Maariv reported 
that Olmert's emissaries to the talks with Syria have reached the 
conclusion that a "historic" agreement between Jerusalem and 
Damascus is at hand.  According to Maariv, an outline exists and the 
sides are prepared to pay the price of an accord: Syria reportedly 
agrees to disconnect from Iran. 
 
Maariv and Israel Radio reported that Minister Shaul Mofaz told Vice 
President Dick Cheney in Washington that Iran is getting 
increasingly closer to acquiring a nuclear weapon.  Maariv reported 
that the U.S. is expected to publish in a few months a new National 
Intelligence Estimate on Iran following data supplied by Israel. 
The Jerusalem Post reported that Olmert's resignation overshadows 
the U.S.-Israel strategic dialogue, which is led by Mofaz on the 
Israeli side.  Maariv quoted senior intelligence sources as saying 
that Britain, France, and Germany share Israel's assessment, while 
the U.S. position remains the same.  Maariv quoted Defense Minister 
Ehud Barak as saying that Israel has no window of opportunity to 
attack Iran. 
 
All media reported that Olmert's Chief of Staff, Yoram Turbowicz, 
has announced his resignation. 
 
Major media reported that yesterday the Foreign Ministry expressed 
its disappointment at reports that on Wednesday Germany's Export 
 
Control Office approved the signing of a 100-million Euro deal 
between a German firm and Iran's national oil company -- including 
the construction in Iran of three plants to liquefy natural gas. 
The media reported that Jerusalem would demand clarifications from 
Berlin. 
 
The Jerusalem Post quoted PA officials as saying yesterday that 
Olmert's decision to step down after the Kadima primaries in 
September means that the chances of reaching an agreement between 
Israel and the Palestinians before the end of the year are 
non-existent.  The newspaper also quoted PA officials in Ramallah as 
saying on Wednesday that Palestinian PM Salam Fayyad has asked the 
World Bank for emergency funding so that he can pay salaries to PA 
employees. 
 
Maariv and The Jerusalem Post reported that the ultra-Orthodox 
candidate for JerusalemQs upcoming mayoral race may be Rabbi Meir 
Porush instead of current mayor Uri Lupoliansky. 
 
Ha'aretz quoted the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, which is considered 
sympathetic to the Shi'ite group, as saying yesterday that Hizbullah 
is planning to take "practical measures" to counter IAF overflights 
of Lebanon.  Al-Akhbar quoted a source who said that Hizbullah is 
"close to adopting practical measures that will force Israel to 
cease the overflights."  Ha'aretz says that the report is in line 
with Israeli intelligence assessments that predicted that following 
the completion of the Israel-Hizbullah prisoner swap, Hizbullah 
would seek excuses to resume its struggle against Israel in order to 
justify its refusal to disarm.  Hizbullah has cultivated an image as 
Lebanon's "protector" against what it describes as Israeli 
aggression. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that the High Court of Justice is due to 
hear a petition filed recently by Palestinian residents of the 
village of Bil'in charging that the government and the army are in 
contempt of court for failing to reroute the barrier separating the 
village from Modi'in Illit in keeping with a High Court ruling from 
September 2007. 
 
Maariv reported that the Israel Navy is expected to announce within 
a month which company will secure a bid for its most expensive 
defense project over the past decade.  Lockheed Martin, Northrop 
Grumman, and an Italian shipyard are mentioned as possible suppliers 
for the $400 million contract to build the two largest missile boats 
in the Israeli navy. 
Ha'aretz reported that following domestic and international 
protests, the Planning and Construction Committee of the Interior 
Ministry's Jerusalem District has limited the building plan at the 
Old City's Mugrabi Gate. 
 
All media reported that yesterday the State Prosecutor's Office 
informed billionaire politician Arkady Gaidamak that it intended to 
indict him for aggravated fraud and money laundering.  Gaidamak was 
quoted as saying in an interview with Kull Al Arab that he supports 
the idea of negotiations with Hamas, Hizbullah, and Iran, and does 
not consider that Mahmoud Abbas represents all the Palestinians.  He 
was quoted as saying that he is against the division of Jerusalem 
and that he wants it to be an open developed city and a symbol for 
coexistence and peace. 
 
Ha'aretz ran a feature about Masab Yousef, son of a West Bank Hamas 
leader, who has forsaken his father's ideology, converted to 
Christianity, and is now seeking political asylum in the U.S. 
 
Ha'aretz (English Ed.) quoted Attorney Michele Coven, an expert in 
American immigration and naturalization law, as saying that in 
recent years it has become increasingly complicated to attain U.S. 
citizenship for children and grandchildren born abroad. 
 
Ha'aretz presented the results of a Dialogue poll: 
 
After the Kadima primaries, would you want a new government formed 
or general elections? 
Elections: 61%; new government: 24%; 14% were undecided. 
If Livni heads Kadima, who would you vote for? 
Kadima: 26%; Likud: 25%; Labor: 14%. 
 
Maariv presented the results of a TNS/Teleseker poll: 
If Knesset elections were to be held today and Livni to head Kadima 
with the following parties running, for which party would you vote? 
Results in Knesset seats.  (In brackets: Maariv's May 30 poll): 
Likud: 33 (30); Kadima: 30 (25);  Labor Party: 17 (18): Yisrael 
Beiteinu: 12 (10); Shas:9 ( 9); Arab parties: 10 (9); National Union 
Party and National-Religious Party:6 ( 7); Meretz:4  (4); United 
Torah Judaism: 4 (4); Social Justice -- new party headed by Arkady 
Gaidamak: 5 (4); Pensioners Party: 0; Yisrael Hazaka (A  Strong 
Israel) -- a new party founded by former Labor politician Ephraim 
Sneh: 0. 
 
Yediot presented the results of a Mina Zemach (Dahaf Institute) 
poll: 
(Among registered Kadima voters) If only Mofaz and Livni compete 
(for Kadima chairmanship), for whom will you vote? (In brackets: 
previous survey). 
Tzipi Livni: 51%; (47%) Shaul Mofaz: 43% (45%). 
 
-------- 
Mideast: 
-------- 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized: "There 
are two things Israel cannot afford.  The first is a lengthy vacuum 
in the conduct of our security, political, and diplomatic affairs. 
The second is a bad diplomatic deal that could be seen as binding on 
Olmert's successor." 
 
Senior columnist and longtime dove Yoel Marcus wrote in the 
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz: "It does not matter who the 
winner is -- Mofaz or Livni.  What matters is moving forward in the 
spirit of Sharon's vision, to the government of continuity and 
change that the country so desperately needs." 
 
The nationalist, Orthodox Makor Rishon-Hatzofe editorialized: " 
someone who plans to quit within one-and-a-half months does not 
conduct an intensive diplomatic campaign to reach an agreement with 
Abu Mazen." 
 
Military correspondent Alex Fishman wrote in the mass-circulation, 
pluralist Yediot Aharonot: "Someone must explain to the Syrians the 
meaning of cooperation with Hizbullah.... This can't wait for the 
next government." 
 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
¶I.  "A Long Good-Bye" 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized (8/1): " 
There are two things Israel cannot afford.  The first is a lengthy 
vacuum in the conduct of our security, political, and diplomatic 
affairs.  The second is a bad diplomatic deal that could be seen as 
binding on Olmert's successor..... Were [Mahmoud] Abbas cast more in 
the mold of an Anwar Sadat or a King Hussein, a breakthrough would 
 
be more likely.  And seven years of Hamas bombardment of Israeli 
territory from Gaza hasn't helped matters.... Across the Atlantic, 
George Bush's term as president expires in six months.  Time flies, 
and we are mindful that there may be opportunities Israel can best 
take while this unusually empathetic president remains in power. 
Whether it is talks with Abbas, managing the security situation 
along our northern border and with Gaza or pursuing efforts to free 
Gilad Shalit, the country's foreign and security predicament cannot 
be put on hold.... Olmert must, as he has promised, coordinate with 
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, as 
well as with Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz in his capacity as 
minister in charge of strategic dialogue with the U.S. on Iran.  He 
should also solicit input from opposition leader Benjamin 
Netanyahu." 
 
II.  "Housecleaning First" 
 
Senior columnist and longtime dove Yoel Marcus wrote in the 
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz (8/1): "Assuming that Livni and 
Mofaz are the front-runners, and knowing that they do not exactly 
see eye to eye on how to solve the problems of war and peace in this 
region, it is important for them to agree ahead of time on certain 
basic principles if they want Kadima to go on being a major centrist 
party and the one that leads the state.... If I were Mofaz, I would 
not write Livni off so quickly.  She has served in the Knesset for 
10 years, headed seven government ministries, sat in the defense 
cabinet, and been a party to a series of important decisions.  Livni 
has plans to move forward with peace accords, while Mofaz, an old 
warhorse, may lead the country into a major offensive in Gaza of the 
sort we know how to start but not to end.... Livni and Mofaz have 
inherited the 'Sharon legacy' from the founders of Kadima.  This is 
a legacy we remember fondly for the Sharonic principle that the time 
has come to wake up from the dream of a Greater Israel and gradually 
work out permanent borders, in collaboration with President George 
Bush, based on the concept of two states for two peoples.  In 
practice, however, Sharon erred twice: (a) in carrying out the 
disengagement from Gaza unilaterally, without an agreement, thereby 
leaving southern Israel at the mercy of Hamas, an ally of Hizbullah 
and Iran, and b) in making Olmert his deputy, to compensate him for 
being passed over as finance minister.  Tough guys like Sharon never 
dream of themselves slipping into a coma one day.... It does not 
matter who the winner is -- Mofaz or Livni.  What matters is moving 
forward in the spirit of Sharon's vision, to the government of 
continuity and change that the country so desperately needs." 
 
III.  "Olmert Doesn't Really Want to Quit" 
 
The nationalist, Orthodox Makor Rishon-Hatzofe editorialized (8/1): 
"Olmert's speech [on Wednesday] was well though of and didn't 
deviate from the way he usually behaves.... Olmert doesn't abandon 
his habits.  His announcement was devoid of meaning.  It was 
political" it was intended for the legal establishment, but not to 
Kadima's inner organization.... Olmert himself knows why he 
continues to move on a track of fateful diplomatic projects. 
Because someone who plans to quit within one-and-a-half months does 
not conduct an intensive diplomatic campaign to reach an agreement 
with Abu Mazen.... The only thing he should deal with is current 
governmental maintenance until he is replaced." 
 
IV.  "Hizbullah Is Taking Hold of the Skies" 
 
Military correspondent Alex Fishman wrote in the mass-circulation, 
pluralist Yediot Aharonot (8/1): "We are talking about a real 
ticking bomb -- a decision that cannot wait for a new leader or 
another government.  There is no vacuum in security matters.  The 
crash of the Olmert government, the waiting for the primaries, for a 
national unity government, or new elections are a failsafe recipe 
for putting off decisions that mean -- without exaggerating -- a 
peace-or-war, life-or-death issue for long months.... This matter is 
most urgent.... According to foreign media reports, this is a threat 
to Israel's air safety over Lebanon.... In 1970, Israel decided to 
ignore the movement of Egyptian anti-aircraft batteries and paid 
heavily for this in the Yom Kippur War.... Someone must explain to 
the Syrians the meaning of cooperation with Hizbullah.  Iran has 
nothing to lose.  Syria actually does.  The government must at once 
take care of this.  This can't wait for the next government." 
 
MORENO