O P 281100Z AUG 08
FM AMCONSUL LAHORE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3769
INFO AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 
AMEMBASSY KABUL 
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
CIA WASHDC
AMCONSUL LAHORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAHORE 000260 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  8/26/2018 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN PEOPLES PARTY WORKING TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE 
PUNJAB 
 
Derived from: DSCG 05-1, B,D 
 
¶1. (C) Principal Officer met August 26 with PPP Central 
Executive Member and Member of the Punjab Provincial Assembly 
Qasim Zia to review Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) efforts to 
wrest control of the Punjab provincial government from its 
former coalition partner, the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz 
(PML-N).  Zia claimed that following the PML-N's resignation 
from the federal government on August 25, he and Punjab Governor 
Salman Taseer had been instructed to begin active preparations 
for a realignment of the Punjab government.  Zia shared that the 
PPP had decided that the current provincial governing coalition 
of PML-N and PPP was no longer workable in light of the PML-N 
defection at the federal level.  Neither party currently 
commands an indepedent majority in the provincial assembly (186 
seats), although the PML-N (the current lead in the provincial 
coalition) has the largest number of seats with 171. 
 
¶2. (C) Qasim Zia stated that with the inevitable split in the 
current provincial coalition, the key to power in the Punjab lay 
with the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) -- the official opposition 
-- and the PML Forward Block, an unofficial group of disgruntled 
PML MPAs who have been actively negotiating to join the 
governing coalition.  Both groups have opened independent 
negotiations with the PML-N and the PPP over which party they 
would support should the provincial coalition split.  The 
respective size of the two groups is uncertain, as no formal 
membership list for the Forward Block exists.  The PML had 83 
members prior to the creation of the Forward Block, estimates on 
the size of which range from 10 to 35 members.  Post believes 
around 15 PML members are genuinely loyal to the Forward Block 
leaders. 
 
¶3. (C) According to Zia, the PPP, which currently has 107 seats, 
believes that it can count on the support of Independents (4), 
Pakistan Muslim League - Functional (3), and Muttahida 
Majlis-e-Amal (2) members of the assembly.  This means that the 
party likely requires the support of both the PML and the PML 
Forward Block in order to oust the PML-N from control of the 
provincial government.  Zia claimed that he had personally been 
charged with negotiating with the PML Forward Block leaders and 
that to date they were largely receptive.  They were prepared to 
join the PPP in forming the government after the presidential 
election and to vote for Zardari in the presidential election 
provided that the PPP accepted them into the new coalition first 
and separately from the mainstream PML.  Zia claimed that 
negotiations between Governor Salman Taseer and the Chaudhries 
had similarly led the PPP to believe that the PML would support 
them in taking over the provincial government.  Zia admitted, 
however, that both groups were being courted equally assiduously 
by the PML-N following their departure from the federal 
government and that the final outcome could not be assured. 
 
¶4. (C) Zia noted, however, that the PPP had two additional 
tricks that could tilt the balance of power in the province in 
its favor.  The first would be to have Chief Justice Hameed 
Dogar invalidate Shahbaz Sharif's oath as a Member of the 
Assembly.  Shahbaz, who ran in by-elections from two 
constituencies, failed to withdraw his candidacy for the second 
after being declared victorious and taking his oath of office as 
a member from the first.  The PPP, using somewhat convoluted 
legal logic, claims that this is unconstitutional and that, in 
fact, Shahbaz ceased being a member from his first constituency 
when he was elected a member from his second -- even though he 
resigned his second seat.  If upheld by a court, this logic 
would invalidate his election as Chief Minister, an election 
which occurred when he was a member only from his first seat. 
Given the two-term limit on Chief Ministers, if Shahbaz is 
required to take his second seat, he could not be reelected as 
Chief Minister, placing the PML-N in a very difficult position, 
which the PPP hopes would ensure its Chief Ministerial 
candidate's support.  Zia claimed that Chief Justice Dogar is 
prepared to issue the necessary legal ruling if requested to do 
so by Zardari. 
 
¶5. (C) Failing all else, Zia claimed that the PPP was prepared 
to change both the Chief Secretary and the Inspector General of 
Police, thereby denying Shahbaz the necessary bureaucratic 
support to govern the province effectively.  While both 
positions are nominally appointed by the Prime Minister, 
tradition but not law allows the Chief Minister of a province a 
say in who is appointed.  The PPP is prepared to violate 
tradition, remove Shahbaz's handpicked officeholders, and 
replace them with PPP loyalists who would take direction from 
Zardari and Governor Taseer rather than Shahbaz.  This, Zia 
claimed, was essential to avoid a repeat of 1988 when the PML-N 
controlled the Punjab provincial government and used it as a 
platform to destabilize the federal government of then-Prime 
Minister Benazir Bhutto. 
 
¶6. (C) Comment:  The PPP strategy to obtain PML and PML Forward 
Block support appears relatively advanced.  The PML-N is no 
doubt making a similar simultaneous push and the outcome cannot 
easily be predicted at this juncture.  It appears certain, 
however, that the current provincial coalition government, like 
its counterpart at the center appears doomed to failure.  End 
Comment 
 
 
HUNT