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P 051246Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000733 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR FOR MATT BRYZA, EUR/CARC 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL ENRG AZ
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES PRE-ELECTION AZERBAIJAN WITH 
EU SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE 
 
REF: BAKU 687 
 
Classified By: Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, Reasons 1.4 (b, 
d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  EU Special Representative for the South 
Caucasus Peter Semneby won President Aliyev's commitment to 
launch an EU democracy dialogue with Azerbaijan, but met some 
resistance from the Foreign Minister, who suggested expanding 
the theme of the discussions.  Azerbaijan's leaders have 
mixed objectives for the October 15 presidential elections, 
hoping to mollify the West's demands for free and fair 
elections while pressing for a strong show of support for 
President Aliyev.  Jailed journalists, according to Aliyev, 
could be released after the election, but not likely ahead of 
it.  Azerbaijan's leadership remains upset because of the 
U.S. Congress's focus on convicted former minister Farhad 
Aliyev in the recent Helsinki Commission hearings. 
Turkey-Armenia talks, which may have implications for 
Nagorno-Karabakh, may be a source of apprehension for 
Azerbaijan's leaders, even though they are not expressing 
concern publicly.  President Aliyev seeks high-level visitors 
to Baku and regular meetings with European leaders to hasten 
the development of the Nabucco pipeline, which would further 
solidify Azerbaijan's reorientation toward the Euro-Atlantic 
community.  End Summary 
 
¶2. (SBU) Ambassador met with EU Special Representative for 
the South Caucasus Peter Semneby August 1 to discuss his 
ongoing visit to Baku.  Semneby had met with President 
Aliyev, Foreign Minister Mammadyarov and other Azerbaijani 
officials.  French Ambassador Gabriel Keller,EU Commission 
representative and POLEC Counselor joined the conversation. 
 
Democracy Dialogue 
-------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Semneby said that his mission to Baku was to "take the 
pulse" of Azerbaijan ahead of the October 15 presidential 
elections.  In high level meetings, he promoted the EU,s 
proposed democracy dialogue with Azerbaijan.  President 
Aliyev, he reported, again endorsed the initiative.  Foreign 
Minister Mammadyarov, however, was less enthusiastic. 
Mammadyarov suggested combining the democracy dialogue with a 
discussion on joint security efforts, which currently takes 
place in another framework.  Mammadyarov also noted that the 
human rights discussion with the EU should be broadened to 
include the human rights of Azerbaijan's internally displaced 
persons, resulting from the conflict with Armenia over 
Nagorno-Karabakh, and asked for the EU to harmonize its 
European Neighborhood Policy vis-a-vis other countries in the 
neighborhood.  Semneby said that the EU would now send a 
request to the GOAJ, noting President Aliyev,s commitment to 
the process, to determine the dialogue,s future structure 
and agenda and to set dates for meetings.  Semneby expects 
the Presidential Apparat, Ministry of Justice, Ministry of 
Internal Affairs, Ministry of National Security and MFA to 
participate in future meetings, and expects to meet with 
President Aliyev himself annually in the context of the 
dialogue.  The French Ambassador, representing the EU 
Presidency, has asked the Embassy for a briefing on the U.S. 
Democracy Dialogue. 
 
Elections - Mixed Objectives 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Semneby said that, in his view, Azerbaijan,s 
leadership worries that October elections will not result in 
"a good demonstration of a pluralistic political environment" 
in the country, and therefore will not convey a sense of 
legitimacy among international observers.  Semneby described 
a struggle among authorities who simultaneously wish to show 
a "pluralistic atmosphere" for the sake of Western observers, 
but feel the need for a "demonstration of power and unity" at 
home.  Throughout the ranks of government - in Baku and in 
the regions - there is the sentiment that there must be "a 
strong show of support for President Aliyev."  Ambassador 
raised Azerbaijan's new law on freedom of  assembly in the 
context of recent Musavat Party rallies, noting that these 
demonstrations, for which the authorities had denied 
permission in accordance with the new law, did not give a 
clear view on implementation of the law.  Ambassador also 
highlighted a press release from that morning that stated 
that OSCE Ambassador Jose Luis Herrero would lead a 
pre-election dialogue between the governing party and members 
of the opposition. 
 
Journalists to Remain Jailed Throughout Election Season 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Following a brief discussion of the Agil Khalil case 
(reftel), Semneby relayed "a somewhat positive message" on 
the media environment.  At the Presidential Apparat, he had 
found that there might be an effort under preparation to 
release the remaining incarcerated journalists after the 
October elections.  Ambassador asked about the possibility of 
an earlier release, ahead of the vote.  Semneby said that, in 
his view, the current political environment in the country 
would not allow for it.  Semneby added that, during his 
meetings with the President and others, he had not 
specifically asked for the release of the journalists or 
discussed specific cases. 
 
Displeasure at Helsinki Commission Hearings 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Semneby told Ambassador that President Aliyev had 
expressed his displeasure with the United States because of 
the extended conversation at the recent Helsinki Commission 
hearings on the case of jailed former Minister of Economy 
Farhad Aliyev.  The President raised with the EU delegation 
the notion of the United States' "triple standards" on human 
rights and democracy, vis-a-vis 1) Armenia, 2) Georgia and 
Ukraine and 3) the Gulf States/Middle East. 
 
Nagorno-Karabakh: Worries of Turkey-Armenia Talks 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) On Nagorno-Karabakh, Semneby noted that President 
Aliyev does not appear to think that the United States is 
"sincere" in its mediation efforts.  The President, Semneby 
reported, now sees Yerevan as "economically and socially 
weak," i.e., suffering from far greater economic and social 
problems than Azerbaijan.  The French Ambassador weighed in 
to note that Azerbaijani leaders are "much more concerned 
than they admit publicly" about the initiation of talks 
between Turkey and Armenia, and these developments might be a 
source of consternation in terms of the leadership's current 
thinking on NK. 
 
Energy: Movement on Nabucco by Year-End 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Semneby noted that energy issues were intensively 
discussed in his Baku consultations, especially with 
President Aliyev.  He  highlighted several high profile 
events that are planned for the remaining months of this 
year, including a September 9-10 Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan 
joint energy conference in Baku, a proposed Nabucco 
conference in Europe, a November 14 energy summit in Baku 
(following previous presidential meetings in Kyiv, Vilnius 
and Krakow) and possibly a year-end Nabucco Summit in 
Brussels.  Regarding the Nabucco project, Semneby said that 
Aliyev was insisting that "decisions must be taken by the end 
of the year," and that the President wants high-level 
officials in Brussels, European heads of government and 
Turkmenistan President Berdimuhamedov to meet in coming 
months to set the political framework. 
 
¶9. (C) Aliyev's set out his strategy on Nabucco in detail 
according to Semneby, and urged that a Nabucco-plus Summit 
take place before the end of the year in Brussels to issue a 
political statement laying out next steps.  Azerbaijan and 
Turkmenistan should  press forward into European markets; 
Turkmenistan's participation, in that regard, is essential 
for Azerbaijan.  Responding to the Ambassador's inquiry, 
Semneby said that a near-term visit to Baku by EU foreign 
policy chief Javier Solana is possible, but not yet in the 
works.  Ambassador also noted that President Aliyev would 
appreciate a visit from French President Sarkozy, as France 
now has the EU Presidency.  The French Ambassador wondered 
aloud how much progress could be made on Nabucco during 
France's tenure, given Sarkozy's approach to Turkey's EU 
membership ambitions. 
 
Medvedev Visit: Russia Back in the Game 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (C) Semneby asked Ambassador for her take on Russian 
President Dmitriy Medvedev's recent visit to Baku. 
Ambassador said that, in her opinion, the Russians wanted to 
send a strong signal, particularly on energy cooperation, to 
Azerbaijan.  She added that there appeared to be no 
conclusive results from the visit, despite a large Russian 
 
business contingent that accompanied the President.  On NK, 
Russia raised the level at which it expressed support for 
Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, but did not change its 
message.  Semneby agreed that Medvedev wanted to show that 
"Russia is back in the game."  He commented on media 
speculation that Russia might sell out Armenia in favor of a 
natural gas deal with Azerbaijan, noting that, in his 
opinion, Russia would never jeopardize its long term position 
in Armenia to do so.  Semneby also said that the Medvedev 
visit is a sign that Azerbaijan is now thinking in 
"multi-vector" terms, i.e., continuing its orientation toward 
the West, but, because of a lack of European engagement, also 
looking in other directions.  Ambassador noted that this is 
precisely why the Nabucco project is so important.  "It is 
about so much more than gas." 
 
Comment: 
---------- 
¶11. (C) Semneby was impressed by the urgency and detail of 
President Aliyev's discussion of energy security and the need 
for urgent action on Nabucco.  He said he would make Aliyev's 
case for an energy summit in Brussels, but could not predict 
the outcome. Turkmenistan emerged as very much at the core of 
President Aliyev's Southern Corridor energy plans.  The 
President has suggested that Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan 
should work out the technical conditions to link offshore gas 
fields across the Caspian, that Turkey should exercise its 
1998 contract to purchase Turkmenistan's gas via Azerbaijan, 
and that Nabucco and Europeans should seek gas purchasing 
agreements with Turkmenistan.  The EU's intention to engage 
Azerbaijan in a formal discussion of democracy and human 
rights is positive and is an effort we should encourage. 
DERSE