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RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0088/01 2071036
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251036Z JUL 08
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0261
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0247
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0139
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0139
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0266

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000088 
 
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TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI KISL ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA GOVERNOR'S ELECTION: WEAK PARTY LOYALTY LEADS TO 
RUNOFF ELECTION 
 
REF: SURABAYA 51: POLITICS IN EAST JAVA'S LARGEST MUSLIM ORGANIZATION 
 
SURABAYA 00000088  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
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accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Based on quick count results, it appears 
likely East Java governor's election will go to a second round 
after no candidate garnered 30% of the vote in a five ticket 
race.  Soekarwo-Syaifullah Yusuf -- supported by the National 
Mandate Party (PAN), Party Democrat (PD), and the Prosperous 
Justice Party (PKS) -- and Khofifah Indar Parawansa-Mudjiono -- 
supported by the United Development Party (PPP), the Patriot 
Party, and a coalition of smaller parties -- received the most 
first-round votes and will compete head-to-head in the runoff. 
It's unclear when the runoff will take place, as election 
officials admit to logistical difficulties and limitations 
created by the upcoming Ramadan holiday period.  In a race 
dominated by candidate popularity rather than party loyalty, the 
runoff is expected to be very close.  The election results 
offered little comfort to the largest national parties (Golkar, 
PDI-P, and PKB) after all three sets of candidates were 
eliminated.   As voters once again demonstrate their willingness 
to ignore party dictates, national party leaders will need to 
reevaluate their strategies for success in advance of the 2009 
parliamentary and presidential elections. End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The results of the July 23 East Java governor's 
election continue to be analyzed as the final votes are counted. 
 According to quick counts conducted by several polling 
institutions, the team of Soekarwo-Syaifullah Yusuf garnered the 
most votes, with the team of Khofifah Indar Parawansw-Mudjiono 
coming second.  Although one quick count put Soekarwo above the 
necessary 30% threshold to avoid a runoff, all other quick votes 
suggest a runoff will be necessary.  The first round eliminated 
the candidates from Golkar, Megawati's Indonesian Party of 
Struggle (PDI-P) and the Gus Dur faction of the National 
Awakening Party (PKB). The East Java Election Commission plans 
to officially announce the results on August 4. 
 
Personal Popularity Trumps Party Loyalty 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Most observers credit Soekarwo's and Khofifah's strong 
showings on personal popularity rather than party loyalty.  The 
disarray within Gus Dur's PKB and competing centers of power 
within Nadhlatul Ulama (NU) helped fracture this traditionally 
solid block of votes.  Khofifah, head of the women's division of 
NU and a former Minister of Women's Empowerment, reportedly 
garnered almost 33% of PKB voters and drew the majority of 
female votes.  Long-time civil administrator Soekarwo, teamed 
with Gus Dur's estranged nephew Syaifullah Yusuf, who is also 
the head of National NU's youth organization Ansor, garnered 
support from across the political spectrum. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The East Java elections offered little good news for 
the largest national parties Golkar, PDI-P, and PKB.  The Golkar 
team, pairing the East Java party chairman and former Vice 
Governor Soenarjo with former East Java NU Chairman Ali Maschan 
Moesa, finished a disappointing fourth, garnering less than 
20%of the vote.  Reportedly, only 50% of Golkar voters supported 
their candidate.   Soenarjo was an uninspiring candidate who 
generated little enthusiasm with the party or among East Java's 
voters.  Additionally, running mate Ali Maschan's disagreements 
with NU clerics probably limited his ability to draw NU voters 
to Soenarjo's cause.  Gus Dur's hand-picked PKB candidate 
Achmady, the little known regent of Mojokerto, finished dead 
last, with less than 8% of the vote.  Only 16% of PKB voters 
supported the party's candidate; 32% supported Khofifah and 30% 
supported Soekarwo.  PDI-P's candidate Sutjipto fared better, 
with approximately 21% of the total vote and solid party-member 
support, but he did not attract disaffected voters from other 
parties.  PKS, known for the loyalty of its cadres, was not 
unified behind the party's candidate -- only 48% voted for 
Soekarwo; 24% voted for Khofifah.  Once again, however, as a 
party, PKS threw its support behind a winning team. 
 
Prospects for the Runoff 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Prospects for both candidates in a runoff are unclear. 
Soekarwo's team believes they can attract supporters from Golkar 
and PDI-P, whose candidate Sutjipto finished a close third. 
Khofifah supporters believe she will draw support from 
traditional conservative voters in the horseshoe shaped region 
of Tapal Kuda and the island of Madura, although both Khofifah 
and Soekarwo did well in these areas during the first round. 
 
SURABAYA 00000088  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Voter turnout in the first round was lower than expected -- 61%. 
 In Surabaya, turnout was even lower -- 50%.  Voter apathy may 
increase further.  Election officials suggest that a runoff 
could not be organized in less than three months; they 
anticipate holding the election in late October, after the 
fasting month of Ramadan.  Complicating matters further, the 
election commission's term expires at the end of September. 
MCCLELLAND