VZCZCXRO6196
PP RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHMZ #0257/01 2071246
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 251246Z JUL 08
FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4440
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000257 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV GM
SUBJECT:  CDU/CSU RIVALRY AND UNITY: MERKEL NEEDS BOTH FOR ELECTORAL 
SUCCESS 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  The July 18-19 CSU party convention demonstrated that recent 
media reports about a deep split between the CDU and CSU have been 
overblown.  In a skillful speech before the CSU party congress, 
Chancellor Merkel brushed aside recent CDU/CSU tensions, praising 
the CSU's achievements as a model for all of Germany, and 
demonstrating that she knows how to win the hearts of the rebellious 
sister party.  In the face of polls that continue to show the CSU 
could potentially lose its forty-six-year-long absolute majority, 
party chairman Erwin Huber and Bavarian Minister President Guenther 
Beckstein have vowed to fight back, and a sense of confidence for a 
successful election result seems to be returning to the party rank 
and file. 
 
¶2.  The CDU/CSU needs a certain amount of disunity to maximize its 
national strength.  Past experience has shown that the CSU is 
strongest when it can play the card of Bavaria's uniqueness.  By 
doing so, some collateral damage to unity with the CDU sister party 
is inevitable.  However, a strong CSU showing in Bavaria's September 
2008 elections is a prerequisite for the CDU/CSU to be successful in 
2009 national elections.  Chancellor Merkel seems to be well aware 
of this fact and is able to play along to strengthen her position on 
the federal level.  End summary. 
 
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Campaign Entering Hot Phase 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3.  The CSU started the hot phase of its campaign in the run-up to 
the September 28 Bavarian state election with a party convention in 
Nuremberg July 18/19.  Party chairman Erwin Huber and Bavarian M-P 
Guenther Beckstein vowed to fight to maintain the CSU's absolute 
majority which they said was a prerequisite for Bavaria's standing 
as one of the world's most prosperous regions.  A change of 
government would lead to a dramatic downturn, they warned.  While 
recent opinion polls indicate that up to six political parties might 
in fact enter Bavarian parliament this fall, the potential newcomers 
-- FDP, Independents and Left Party -- have too little in common 
with the opposition SPD and Greens to make a change of government a 
realistic option.  However, the CSU is deeply concerned about the 
mere possibility of falling short of the 50 percent threshold and 
will fight tooth and nail to defend Bavaria as Europe's singular 
one-party powerhouse. 
 
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Sisterly Love 
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¶4.  Recent reports about a deep split between the CDU and CSU appear 
to be overblown.  The CDU/CSU relationship has never been easy and 
free of tensions, and the CDU needs an independent CSU party that 
can win majorities by identifying closely with the state of Bavaria 
and local interests.  Without a strong CSU result in Bavaria, the 
CDU would not be in a position to win national elections.  It has 
always been the CDU leaders' task to protect the CSU's independence 
and strength without at the same time caving in to CSU demands.  In 
her keynote address at the CSU convention, Chancellor Merkel 
skillfully avoided mentioning the current bone of contention between 
the two parties -- the CSU's request to reinstitute full commuter 
subsidies for taxpayers, which Merkel vehemently rejects.  The 
Chancellor instead dwelled on the many areas of CDU/CSU unity.  At 
the same time, she praised the CSU's achievements, concluding that 
"Bavaria already has reached the top, something the rest of Germany 
is still striving for."  She also paid tribute to the legendary 
Bavarian Franz Josef Strauss whom she praised as a key contributor 
to German unity.  Finally, she made an extra concession to CSU 
chairman Huber, praising his tax reform concept -- "more net incomes 
for everyone" -- as an important initiative that will be fully 
integrated into a joint CDU/CSU concept next year. 
 
¶5.  At the same time, many CSUers have voiced concern about recent 
attacks (mainly by Minister President Beckstein) on Merkel, 
commenting that a strategy that includes attacks on the most popular 
politician in Germany might in fact backfire rather than win 
elections.  The CSU should not forget who the real opponent is: 
Social Democrat (SPD) Chairman Kurt Beck and his party.  In 
particular, Berlin-based CSU politicians such as Federal Ministers 
Michael Glos and Horst Seehofer and CSU Bundestag Caucus chair Peter 
Ramsauer insist that the CSU should not push the controversy too 
far. 
 
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Brotherly Love 
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¶6.  The CSU convention highlighted that Huber and Beckstein will 
either win together or fall together, as it is likely that neither 
 
MUNICH 00000257  002 OF 002 
 
 
will survive an electoral disaster.  Seehofer, who was defeated by 
Huber one year earlier, may see a chance to become CSU party 
chairman after all if the CSU falters this Autumn. 
 
¶7.  Surprisingly, Beckstein gave a strong speech at the convention, 
one that conveyed optimism and rallied the CSU rank-and-file.  He 
reminded the convention that all other political parties in Bavaria 
have just one common denominator -- the fight against the CSU. 
Beckstein is not the charismatic leader that Edmund Stoiber was in 
his prime, but people see him as reliable.  In a July 18 editorial, 
the "Sueddeutsche Zeitung" noted that the CSU might not be facing 
difficulties today had it not obtained a two-thirds majority in the 
2003 election.  This monopoly on power might have alienated the 
party from its voters.  For the upcoming election, fifty percent is 
the goal.  Somewhat less may be enough to retain an absolute 
majority of Landtag deputies, but the psychological consequences 
would be disastrous. 
 
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Comment 
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¶8.  The party convention made clear that the CSU is fighting with 
its back to the wall.  For the first time in decades it is in real 
danger of losing its absolute majority.  Recent CSU politicking has 
also shown that a wounded Bavarian lion may even attack its allies 
in an effort to regain strength -- something which should not come 
as a surprise to the CDU.  Erwin Huber demonstrated political savvy 
with his tax reform concept and his call for the return of commuter 
subsidies at a time of soaring oil prices, thus identifying a 
campaign issue that might work.  Polls have recently started 
predicting better results for the CSU.  This is a minor fiscal 
issue, and the CSU still cannot achieve this without agreement from 
the CDU.  However, tilting against that windmill still motivates the 
party base, adds to their identity, perhaps inspires voters, and 
challenges the Chancellor in a relatively benign way.  Lock-step 
unity with the CDU would detract from CSU "specialness" and weaken 
the party.  The Chancellor understands this and is able to play 
along to strengthen her position on the federal level. 
 
¶9.  This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
¶10.  Previous reporting from Munich is available at 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any. 
 
NELSON