VZCZCXRO7492
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1126/01 2091409
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 271409Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1438
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 IHARTOUM 001126 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PPEL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: GOSS MINISTER FOR PRESIDENTIAD AFFAIRS ON ICC, ELECTIONS, 
ABYEI AND THE LRA 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a July 26 meeting with ConGen Juba, Luka Biong 
Deng, Minister for Presidential Affairs, Said the possible ICC 
indictments against GNU President Bashir present a golden 
opportunity to leverage concessions from him, that elections in 2009 
are the only path to actually holding a peaceful referendum if 2011, 
that there is no movement on the selection of an Administrator and 
Deputy for Abyei, and that the GOSS is preparing for "Plan B" in 
dealing with the LRA. End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Deng opened the meeting by commenting that the possible ICC 
indictments against GNU President Bashir present, in his opinion, a 
golden opportunity to put pressure on the NCP to honor agreements 
concerning the CPA and Darfur.  Bashir, he said, fears these 
indictments and what they mean for his future.  "The United States 
has an opportunity to leverage this with Bashir," Deng said, "and 
you should use it."  On the down side, Deng also said that if the 
ICC judges do hand down arrest warrants, it means Bashir cannot risk 
losing his place as President of Sudan, and will either call off 
elections scheduled for next year, or will find a way to manipulate 
the electoral process to win.  Stepping down from power is simply 
not an option open to him. 
 
¶3. (SBU) On the subject of elections, Deng said that a decision has 
not yet been made by the party as to who will represent the SPLM on 
the presidential ticket, and he refused to speculate on who the 
frontrunners might be.  Pressed on whether it would be Salva Kiir, 
Deng allowed that Kiir would be probable because he was the head of 
the party, and he could not reasonably take a secondary role to 
someone else in the SPLM were he or she elected president.  Reminded 
that he had said that Bashir would never allow himself to lose an 
election, and that running for the presidency of the GNU would 
preclude Kiir running for the presidency of the GOSS, potentially 
leaving him with no elected position, Deng replied that the SPLM had 
no choice but to compete in the election, because holding them was 
the only path to a peaceful referendum on Southern 
self-determination in 2011.  Even if they lost the presidency, if 
the SPLM and its allies could capture a majority in the National 
Assembly, they could at least write the legislation that will govern 
the conduct of the referendum.  The SPLM, in short, has to run 
according to Deng. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Turning to the US presidential elections, Deng said that 
the SPLM would send representatives to both the Republican and 
Democratic conventions.  It is important to the SPLM that both 
American parties know the situation in Southern Sudan so that no 
matter who wins in November, issues of concern to the SPLM will be 
understood and given attention.  Deng said GOSS President Salva Kiir 
might also travel to the US before the end of the year, and if he 
does he hopes to meet again with President Bush.  The SPLM has great 
admiration for the American President, and wants to do something to 
show their appreciation to him before he leaves office.  Deng does 
not yet know what that gesture would be. 
 
¶5. (SBU) On the subject of Abyei, Deng said that no Administrator or 
Deputy has yet been chosen, and he sees little prospect for them 
being named any time soon.  "The problem," he said, "is the issue of 
the Misseryia."  The SPLM will not accept a Misseryia Deputy 
Administrator, and President Bashir is insisting on it.  Deng 
explained that the SPLM is hard over on this issue because it is 
looking ahead to the referendum in 2011.  The SPLM will not open the 
door to Misseryia participation in the governance of Abyei because 
the next step would be for the NCP to insist that the Misseryia have 
a right to vote in the 2011 referendum, which he said is the real 
goal of the NCP.  The Misseryia, Deng said, are not native to Abyei 
and have no right to vote there in determining whether Abyei goes 
North or South in 2011. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Finally, turning to the subject of the Lord's Resistance 
Army (LRA), Deng said that Kiir recently met with President Museveni 
in Uganda and that both leaders are discouraged with the lack of 
progress on the peace agreement.  "The GOSS," said Deng, is prepared 
for Plan B," meaning joint military action against the rebel group. 
Told that the UN and GOSS Vice President Machar are in contact with 
LRA leader Joseph Kony and hope to meet with him as early as next 
week to possibly sign a peace agreement, Deng simply shrugged and 
repeated, "We are ready for Plan B." 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: Deng, a native of Abyei, was surprised when ConGen 
Juba told him that the UN had reported that nearly all SAF had 
reportedly withdrawn from Abyei, and that a turnover of the town to 
the new Joint Integrated Unit (JIU) is planned for this weekend. 
That, and a distinct lack of urgency in pushing to settle the 
Administrator and Deputy Administrator issue, seems to indicate that 
the SPLM has a great deal on its plate right now in dealing with the 
issue of the ICC indictments (where Kiir has the lead in defending 
the regime and finding a roadmap for Darfur) and what they mean for 
 
 
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* Missing Section 002 * 
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