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INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
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RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 0683

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DURBAN 000038 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S RUSH MARBURG 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  7/17/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SF
SUBJECT: KWAZULU-NATAL PROVINCIAL POLITICAL CONFERENCES:  ANC `UNDER 
SIEGE' AND IFP SEES AN OPENING 
 
REF: REFS:  (A) 07 DURBAN 26, (B) PRETORIA 1548, (C) PRETORIA 1459, (D) PRETORIA 1422, (E) DURBAN 30, (F) DURBAN 36 
 
DURBAN 00000038  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: CASEY SCHMIDT, POL/ECONOFF, POL, STATE. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
Summary 
 
 
 
¶1.  (C) Over the last month, both the African National Congress 
(ANC) and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) held provincial 
conferences in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) which kicked off preparations 
for the 2009 general election.  For the ANC, the June 20-22 
conference was about consolidating party President Jacob Zuma's 
victory at the December 2007 national conference.  For the IFP, 
the June 28-30 conference was a chance to energize the party to 
take advantage of ANC mistakes/infighting and regain lost ground 
in the province.  In Zuma's home province, the ANC swept into 
its provincial executive committee a line up that is almost 
exclusively made up of pro-Zuma supporters.  ANC Secretary 
General Gwede Mantashe said that the ANC was 'under siege' and 
focused on the difficulties that some ANC members were creating 
for the party by not getting on board with the new leadership. 
The IFP talks a good game but no longer has the wherewithal to 
make inroads nationally or even take back KZN.  End summary. 
 
 
 
ANC 'Under Siege' 
 
 
 
¶2.  (C) On June 20, the African National Congress (ANC) kicked 
off its provincial conference in Pietermaritzburg, KwaZulu-Natal 
(KZN).  Consulate staff attended the opening of the event.  With 
several provincial conferences, regional meetings, and the 
recent ANC Youth League conference descending into chaos and 
even some violence, the emphasis was on unity and a calm, 
orderly conference to set an example for those still to come. 
The conference did proceed smoothly but it was unlikely to go 
any other way.  Provincial Chairperson for the last 10 years, 
KZN Premier Sibusiso Ndebele, announced in January that he would 
not run for Chairperson again, leaving Dr. Zweli Mkhize (former 
Deputy Chairperson and Provincial Minister for Finance and 
Economic Development; bio in ref a) to run and win unopposed. 
Those ANC members in KZN who supported South African President 
Thabo Mbeki have known for two-three years that their run was 
likely to come to an end so no fighting was expected by either 
side at the conference.  Including Mkhize (one of Zuma's closest 
confidantes), the remainder of the 25 member ANC provincial 
executive is dominated by pro-Zuma supporters.  Only two of the 
25 are considered to be supporters of South African President 
Thabo Mbeki, with many senior pro-Mbeki leaders removed from the 
ANC's top body in the province. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (C) The ANC was determined that the conference be one that 
it could point to as a model for other provincial conferences to 
follow and one that would demonstrate to the broader South 
African public that the party was unified.  To ensure nothing 
would go wrong, there was an unusually large number of senior 
ANC members from outside KZN present including Mantashe, ANC 
President Jacob Zuma, as well as ANC National Executive 
Committee (NEC) members Jeff Radebe (also Minister of 
Transport), Blade Nzimande (South African Communist Party 
Secretary General), Tokyo Sexwale, and Manto Tshabalala-Msimang 
(also Minister of Health). 
 
 
 
¶4.  (C) ANC Secretary General Mantashe's remarks were the 
centerpiece of the opening session of the conference, the only 
session open to conference observers.  A relaxed and interesting 
speaker, Mantashe held the attention of the packed hall of ANC 
delegates by focusing on unity and attacks on the ANC from 
inside and outside the organization.  Mantashe began by urging 
delegates to demonstrate how a model elective conference should 
take place.  He then turned inwards, arguing that some ANC 
members were asserting that the party's 'decay and decline' 
began in Polokwane at the December 2007 ANC national conference. 
 Mantashe said this was aimed at 'discrediting' Zuma's 
leadership and implied that any leadership problems in the ANC 
began before the new team took over the party.  He accused some 
ANC members of attacking others in the party and acting as if 
they are 'better' than other members.  Mantashe was disturbed 
that these members of the ANC were predicting that the ANC would 
not get a majority or would get less of a majority in the 2009 
elections.  Looking ahead and presaging recent developments (ref 
b), Mantashe said the ANC should not focus on removing ANC 
members from office but should work on forging an effective 
 
DURBAN 00000038  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
transition from the Mbeki to the Zuma administrations in 
national government.  The ANC needed to put together a team to 
make that transition happen.  That was why the party had pushed 
for ANC Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe to be in the national 
parliament and ultimately in government. 
 
 
 
¶5.  (C) Looking outside the organization, Mantashe said that the 
party was misunderstood about its position on disbanding the 
Scorpions.  The issue was simply about creating a larger pool of 
investigators to fight crime.  It wasn't about the Scorpions 
acting against ANC leaders.  That said, added Mantashe, if Zuma 
is charged 3 times over 8 years then they (the ANC) have an 
issue.  If white counter-revolutionaries get off easy on various 
charges, then the ANC has an issue.  Mantashe summed up saying 
that the ANC had an 'issue with the unfair administration of 
justice.'  The ANC Secretary General also talked about the 
Constitutional Court (ref c) and its accusations against Cape 
Town Judge President Hlophe, arguing strongly that the 
accusations had nothing to do with Hlophe and had everything to 
do with Zuma.  He predicted that the 'Constitutional Court is 
preparing for a verdict by preparing a crisis . . .'  While it 
was cryptically stated, the implication was that the 
Constitutional Court would rule against Zuma at some point, 
probably in relation to whether or not his corruption case 
should go to trial.  Finally, Mantashe commented on the ANC 
Youth League President Julius Malema's comments (ref d) about 
dying for Zuma, saying that the ANC is told that it 'is not 
enough' to declare that the statements were 'reckless.'  The ANC 
is told it should condemn the Youth League President which is, 
according to Mantashe, a call to 'destroy' Malema before he has 
had a chance to develop.  Mantashe made it clear the ANC was not 
prepared to do that. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (C) Overall, the ANC was 'under siege' and had to own up to 
its problems and come up with solutions.  The coming elections 
would be 'hectic' and 'difficult' and the party must be unified. 
 In a clear reference to ongoing fights within the organization, 
Mantashe said ANC members were in the 'trenches' before 
Polokwane.  After Polokwane, some were still in the trenches and 
'we need to pull them out.'  Mantashe cited and condemned four 
different incidents of ANC-on-ANC violence in recent months as 
examples of what could not continue to happen.  Concluding, 
Mantashe reminded his audience of what the Polokwane conference 
was all about - 'a revolt against the movement being controlled 
by business and political elites.' 
 
 
 
IFP Sees an Opportunity 
 
 
 
¶7. (C)  On 28 June, President of Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) 
Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi delivered a speech to several 
hundred supporters during the IFP's provincial conference in 
KwaZulu-Natal (attended by Consulate staff), highlighting the 
party's mission and challenges leading up to next year's 
elections. Buthelezi stated that preparations for elections 
during the next eight months will be critical in preventing 
South Africa from slipping into a de facto 'elective 
dictatorship' led by the ANC. According to Buthelezi, the ANC 
has become increasingly 'arrogant' and 'reckless' because of its 
hold over national and provincial government, leading to policy 
decisions without regard for the views expressed by the 
opposition. As one example, Buthelezi claimed that 
KwaZulu-Natal's street naming policy has proceeded without 
consideration for the will of the people or the IFP (ref e and 
f). 
 
 
 
¶8. (C) Buthelezi also stated that corruption, fraud, 
maladministration, and deep party divisions within the ANC are 
hampering solutions to the key problems faced by the people of 
South Africa, such as worsening rural poverty, food insecurity, 
HIV/AIDS, and xenophobia, despite billions of dollars at the 
party's disposal. Moreover, Buthelezi attacked the ANC on its 
role in the Zimbabwe crisis, claiming Mugabe has cheated his way 
to victory because of the precedent set by the ANC during 
Zimbabwe's 2003 election. At that time, Buthelezi alleged the 
ANC sent a team of monitors to Zimbabwe and concluded the 
election was free and fair despite contradictory evidence. 
Buthelezi claimed that IFP has always called for tough action 
 
DURBAN 00000038  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
against Zimbabwe and it is now much too late for the ANC 'shout 
foul.' 
 
 
 
¶9. (C)  According to Buthelezi, a broken national and provincial 
government and a divided ANC has provided the IFP with a 
historic opportunity to regain the ground lost during the 2004 
election and bring multi-party democracy back to South Africa. 
He admitted that the IFP has its fair share of problems and 
urged party leaders to quickly sort out its internal quarrels 
and sharpen policies to offer voters more concrete solutions 
than the ANC's empty promises. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
 
 
¶10.  (C) If the ANC is 'under siege,' it is primarily under 
siege from within.  When Mantashe attacks the Constitutional 
Court, or makes references to unfair charges against Zuma, or 
decries violence within the ANC, he is talking about issues that 
are almost entirely generated by the current split within his 
own organization and/or by individuals that are ANC 
members/sympathizers.  At the same time, the ANC is still 
attempting to deal with the fallout of the wholesale turnover of 
the party's national leadership in Polokwane which are driving 
similar changes at the provincial and regional levels.  This is 
a process that will take a considerable amount of time, only 
potentially resolving itself after the general elections when 
the party and government leadership are again the same 
individuals.  The KZN conference went smoothly because those in 
the organization who have been Mbeki supporters/appointees long 
ago saw the hand writing on the wall in this province. 
 
 
 
¶11.  (C) While the IFP is still a factor in KZN and the ANC has 
left it with plenty of openings in the coming election campaign, 
Buthelezi's party does not have the leadership capacity or the 
funding to take advantage of those opportunities.  Having had 
the same President for 33 years, the entire lifespan of the 
party, those who were charismatic and/or capable long ago 
departed the IFP, leaving it with no one who attracts any 
attention outside of the nearly 80 year old Buthelezi.  At the 
same time, its reputation after 10 years heading provincial 
government and dozens of KZN municipalities is not good, leaving 
the electorate little reason to believe that they should trust 
the IFP more than the ANC.  As an African-dominated party with a 
significant base in a large province, the IFP is a party that 
should be able to challenge the ANC here and across the country. 
 For all the reasons above, it won't. 
YOUNG