VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHRL #1051/01 2132036
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 312036Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1821
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUCNNSG/NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP
RUEHSW/AMEMBASSY BERN 0798
RUEHDL/AMEMBASSY DUBLIN 0206
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0538
RUEHVI/AMEMBASSY VIENNA 0937
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0245
RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 0349

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001051 
 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR ISN RICHARD STRATFORD 
STATE FOR ISN/RA TADD KOCA 
STATE FOR SCA/RA JASON MCCLESSAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2033 
TAGS: PARM PREL IAEA KNNP ENRG ETTD IN GM
SUBJECT: NSG CHAIRMAN EMPHASIZES NEED FOR CONSENSUS ON 
INDIA-US CIVIL NUCLEAR DEAL 
 
REF: BERLIN 942 
 
Classified By: Economic Minister-Counselor Robert Pollard 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  In separate meetings, Nuclear Suppliers 
Group (NSG) Chairman Viktor Elbling and his primary 
working-level technical advisor, Joerg Polster, shared their 
views on moving forward on the NSG India Specific Exception 
Agreement (ISEA).  On July 31, Elbling expressed to EMIN 
Germany's support for the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation 
Initiative (CNCI) and emphasized Germany's goal to remain 
"flexible" in facilitating the passage of ISEA by early 
September.  He added that, although Germany is "quite 
optimistic" that the August 1 IAEA BOG will achieve consensus 
regarding the ISEA, the NSG ISEA faces a real challenge in 
achieving the required 45 member consensus before September 
¶26.  Polster said he believes that the ISEA keys to success 
are using the first NSG meeting to address primary ISEA 
issues and reserving the second for consensus-building among 
participants armed with full negotiating authority.  He sees 
the need for close engagement with skeptical members in the 
lead-up to the second meeting.  End Summary. 
 
 
Board of Governors' Meeting: Quite Optimistic 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Asked about the prospects of the imminent IAEA vote, 
Elbling and Polster expressed their  optimism about reaching 
consensus at the August 1 Board of Governors (BOG) meeting. 
Elbling said that he had not heard voices expressing 
opposition to this vote. 
 
"But the NSG is different" 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) On the NSG ISEA, Elbling several times repeated the 
need for consensus in the vote by the 45 member group.  He 
cautioned that it would be difficult to force any states 
"dragging their feet."  Noting their interest in being 
supportive of US goals, Elbling said that Germany is planning 
at least 
two NSG meetings in an attempt to reach consensus by early 
September.  He indicated that Germany sent a letter a week 
ago to all NSG members inviting them to the plenary meeting 
that would occur on August 21 - 22 and related that the 
second meeting date would remain to be determined, but aiming 
for the first week of September. (Note:  Elbling said that he 
had advises the US not to fix the date of the second meeting 
yet, adding that "people wouldn't want to feel pressed too 
much."  End Note.) 
 
Germany pushing for a "clean" NSG ISEA proposal 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶4.  (C) Elbling made it clear that Germany is pushing for a 
"clean" NSG ISEA proposal but cautioned that other NSG 
members may insist on attaching further non-proliferation 
conditions to the ISEA.  Elbling said that thus far no NSG 
country had come forward with conditions.  Yet he cautioned 
that it "does not mean that something is not brewing", 
adding, "I would not bet on it staying that way". He noted 
that with the need for consensus in the 45-member group, he 
fully expects some kind of NSG member criticism over the 
ISEA, and that would of course impair a favorable decision. 
 
 
You May Hear Some Noises Intended for the Home Front 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Following his comments on the timing of the two 
meetings, Elbling confided, "You may hear some noises 
intended for the home front...to make it easier."  While he 
did not offer details, Elbling suggested that the German 
government may raise some challenges intended for domestic 
consumption. 
 
Planning mechanics: Views from the working level 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶6.  (C) During a private meeting with Econoff on July 29, 
Polster said that the period before the August 21st NSG 
meeting is the time for managing expectations and laying the 
groundwork for a second meeting.  He views the first meeting 
as an opportunity to discuss the primary ISEA issues and 
emphasized the second meeting should be aimed at producing 
consensus.  He envisions the US playing a 
critical role engaging skeptical NSG members, specifically 
mentioning Austria, Ireland, New Zealand and Switzerland.  He 
said the US should encourage them to be flexible with respect 
to the agreement's content and to plan on attending a second 
meeting soon after the first.  (Note: Polster is the MFA Desk 
Officer for Export Controls.  A nuclear physicist, Polster is 
deeply engaged in the substance of NSG planning and routinely 
accompanies Elbling in NSG meetings with members.  End Note.) 
 
 
¶7. (C) Polster cautioned against expecting a second meeting 
mere days after the first, emphasizing the need for 
participants to return home to consult their various 
ministries.  He does think it would be realistic to expect 
members to return within approximately 2-3 weeks to finalize 
an agreement.  Polster stressed the importance of having 
participants in the second meeting arrive with full 
negotiating authority from their governments with an aim to 
achieve 
consensus. 
KOENIG