VZCZCXYZ0009
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHVEN #0160/01 1641615
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 121615Z JUN 08
FM USMISSION USOSCE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5787
INFO RUCNCFE/CONVENTIONAL ARMED FORCES IN EUROPE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEASWA/DTRA ALEX WASHINGTON DC//OSAE
RUESDT/DTRA-OSES DARMSTADT GE
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5-DDPMA-IN/CAC/DDPMA-E//
RUEAHQA/HQ USAF WASHINGTON DC//XONP//

UNCLAS USOSCE 000160 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR VCI/CCA, EUR/RPM 
NSC FOR DOWLEY 
JCS FOR J5 NORWOOD, COL SMITH 
OSD FOR ISA (PERENYI) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KCFE OSCE PARM PREL
SUBJECT: CFE/JCG: JUNE 10, 2008 PLENARY AND RELATED MEETINGS 
 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified; please protect accordingly.  Not 
for Internet. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  During the June 10 JCG Plenary under 
Kazakh Chairmanship, Belgium briefly described its 
ratification procedures noting the process would take 6-12 
months.  Then Azerbaijan and Armenia exchanged a series of 
interventions in which Armenia did not answer direct 
questions posed by Azerbaijan regarding lack of transparency 
on units in Nagorno-Karabakh.  Russian Chief Arms Control 
Delegate Ulyanov did not attend for the second week in a row 
as he was reportedly tied up with preparations for the Joint 
FSC-PC meetings regarding Abkhazia.  Germany presented a read 
out of the Pugwash Conference at the June 9 JCG-T and alerted 
Allies that Russia would likely continue to push for JCG 
discussion on substantial combat forces, accession and 
ceilings.  The Treaty Operation and Implementation (TOI) 
small group met on June 12 to agree on a new chair; Russia 
mentioned it may propose suspension of the JCG working 
groups.  End Summary 
 
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JCG PLENARY - AZERBAIJAN ASKS ARMENIA POINTED QUESTIONS 
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¶2.  (SBU)  At the June 10 JCG Plenary chaired by Kazakhstan, 
Belgium (Pauwels) made a brief intervention on its 
ratification procedures noting the normal duration is 
generally one year, but can be accelerated to 6 months for 
matters of political urgency.  Russian Chief Arms Control 
Delegate Ulyanov (as expected) sent CFE expert Vadim 
Solomenko as the Russian representative again since Ulyanov 
was tied up with preparations for the Joint FSC-PC meetings 
on increased tensions between Russia and Georgia over 
Abkhazia.  (Comment. The reason behind Ulyanov's now second 
absence was reported by Italy, and confirmed by Germany, in 
the JCG-T that met the day prior. End comment) 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Azerbaijan (Jafarova) kicked off a round of 
Azerbaijani-Armenia interventions stemming from last week's 
FSC intervention regarding France's inclusion, in its report 
of a VDoc inspection in Armenia, the Armenian charge that 
Azerbaijan,s holdings exceed its CFE equipment ceilings. 
The JCG statement was directed only at Armenia and its 
failure to notify, let alone accept inspections of, over 40 
Armenian units in Nagorno-Karabakh.  Referring to the 
footnote in its annual data, Jafarova noted Azerbaijan,s 
full transparency with regard to 9 units along the line of 
conflict in contrast to Armenia's 'hiding' of over 40 units 
in the occupied territory.  She then pointedly asked Armenia 
to provide any documentation regarding notifications or 
inspections of these units that would substantiate its claim 
that all units have been notified and are open to inspection. 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Rather than address the specific questions, 
Armenia (Hovhannisyan) repeated standard accusations, 
reiterated that Armenia was fulfilling all CFE obligations 
and questioned why Azerbaijan ever signed CFE and adapted CFE 
considering the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh predated the 
CFE Treaty.  The end result was Azerbaijan and Armenia trying 
to top each other as to who was more out of compliance, with 
Azerbaijan asking rhetorically when it had ever given Armenia 
consent to deploy forces in the occupied territories. 
 
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JCG-T Plus 4 - Russia's plans for JCG and latest Flank 
Proposal 
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¶5. (SBU)  At the 14 January JCG-T plus 4, chaired by Turkey 
(Begec), Germany (Richter) presented a read out of the June 
6-8 Pugwash Conference that had just met in Potsdam.  Of 
note, Richter underscored there was a general understanding 
of the serious consequences that would stem from the loss of 
CFE and concern for a potential delay in resolving the 
impasse (alluding to the U.S. administration change) which 
would translate into no substantive progress for at least a 
full year.  Richter noted Russia insists it has shown 
flexibility through a willingness to even discuss the 
Istanbul commitments and accept documentary transfer of 
Gudauta for which Georgia will not give permission.  He 
alerted Allies that Russia would likely put forth concrete 
proposals in the JCG on the "secondary issues that have risen 
to the forefront," namely substantial combat forces, 
accession and ceilings, as Russia opines they are not 
satisfactorily addressed in the NAC statement. 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Regarding the Baluyevskiy flank-proposal, initially 
floated at a NATO-Russia Council CHOD meeting, Richter said 
he provided the Russians with the German unofficial reaction 
that the proposal ran counter to the very purpose of adapted 
CFE in terms of regional and sub-regional limits to prevent 
massing of forces.  Turkey (Begec) noted it remains 
unconvinced that the Russian proposal would provide security 
assurances equal to the current Treaty.  Both the U.S. 
(Neighbour) and Turkey concurred with the criticality of 
predictability and preventing sub-regional concentrations of 
forces.  Neighbour also thanked the Germans for enabling the 
Pugwash conference to happen and emphasized that it was 
purely an academic brainstorming event during which all 
representatives from NATO countries closely adhered to HLTF 
guidance. 
 
¶7. (SBU)  There was minimal preparation required for the June 
10 JCG meeting as no interventions were planned other than 
Belgium's brief statement on ratification procedures.  Italy 
(Negro) reported, and Germany confirmed, that Ulyanov had 
indicated there would be no Russian statement and that he, 
himself, would not even be present as he was preoccupied with 
preparing for the meetings regarding Georgia. 
 
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Small Group Meeting - Another Russian suspension? 
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¶8.  (SBU)  On June 12, the Treaty Operation and 
Implementation (TOI) Group Chairman (Fardellotti, Italy) 
convened the TOI small working group with the intention of 
clearing his nomination for the next TOI Chair (Linteau, 
Canada) before bringing the issue to the full TOI.  Germany, 
Russia and the U.S. voiced support for the nomination. 
Citing a lack of progress in both the JCG and the U.S.-Russia 
Bilateral channel, Russia (Solomenko) stated that it would 
likely soon put forward an official proposal to suspend the 
activity of the JCG Working Groups (TOI and POET).  (Comment: 
 Such a proposal would require - and not likely achieve - 
consensus in the JCG. End comment) 
 
¶9.  (U)  The next JCG Plenary, to be chaired by Kazakhstan, 
will take place on June 17, followed by a TOI meeting, and 
will be preceded by a JCG-T on June 16. 
FINLEY