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RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 001505 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DOE FOR SECRETARY BODMAN 
STATE FOR G, EEB, OES, AND EAP/J 
NSC FOR PAUL BROWN AND JONATHAN SHRIER 
CEQ FOR JAMES CONNAUGHTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2018 
TAGS: ENRG KGHG AADP OVIP JA
SUBJECT: G8 ENERGY MINISTERIAL -- JAPANESE GOALS 
 
REF: A. TOKYO 1496 
     ¶B. TOKYO 1411 
     ¶C. TOKYO 1476 
 
TOKYO 00001505  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.4 (b), (d). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: The agenda for the June 8 Aomori G-8 Energy 
Ministerial includes the world oil and gas markets and the 
energy investment climate.  Much of the press and public 
focus in Japan, however, will be on climate change and the 
steps Japan and other economies will take to reduce 
greenhouse gas emissions.  The various ministries have each 
been responsible for organizing and running the various 
ministerials under Japan's G8 presidency and METI has long 
taken a hard-nosed attitude towards the need to include 
China, India, and other major emerging economies in any 
international framework to cut gashouse gas emissions. 
However, recent high-level meetings suggest the GOJ is 
shifting positions on how to achieve a post-Kyoto framework. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
Japan's Political Backdrop to Aomori 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (C) Since Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry 
is organizing and running the June 7 - 8 G8 Energy 
Ministerial, expectations had been that GOJ positions would 
be largely in line with those of the U.S.  METI has long 
opposed cap and trade.  Officials there have long been 
concerned with energy security and also looked at the 
potential for new Japanese technologies both to reduce energy 
use and to cut greenhouse gas emissions.  With its deep ties 
to Japan's industry, officials have generally argued China 
and the other major emerging economies need to act with 
developed industrialized countries to cut greenhouse gas 
emissions.  Draft statements which the U.S has had input on 
include points on energy security, diversification, 
efficiency and investment is very much in line with U.S. 
interests.  Working level METI officials have assured us 
after the Environment Ministerial that Minister Amari will 
not stray from these points. The U.S. will have a chance to 
review the proposed statements once again in a prepatory 
meeting in Tokyo June 4-5. 
 
¶3.  (C) Nevertheless, the Energy Ministerial comes two weeks 
after the G8 Environment Ministerial in Kobe where Japan's 
Environment Minister issued a Chair's Summary that did not 
take into account the views of all G8 members -- including 
those of the U.S. -- and ran counter to long-standing GOJ 
positions.  Indications suggest a shift may be underway in 
the Fukuda Government's approach to energy and climate change 
matters.  Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura's remarks to the 
Ambassador (ref A, C) and statements from the Cabinet's 
Special Advisor on Climate Change (ref B) show top levels in 
the Fukuda government are considering whether the best 
concessions from emerging economies on the outline of a 
post-Kyoto climate framework, including on greenhouse gas 
emissions cuts, could come in the MEM Leaders' Meeting Fukuda 
will chair on July 9, or out of the G8.  In addition, there 
are signs the GOJ is shifting its thinking on cap-and-trade 
and greenhouse gas limits, making it seem more in line with 
 
TOKYO 00001505  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
that of the EU than with the U.S. or Japan's long-standing 
position on these questions. 
 
¶4.  (C) The background for this shift is Japan's domestic 
political situation.  Fukuda's approval ratings have been low 
for some time and continue to drop.  Climate change, an issue 
the PM has publicly said is a centerpiece for the Summit, is 
an area where the government sees some hope of a publicly 
demonstrable accomplishment.  With rumors of elections or 
cabinet change later in the year, observers suggest the 
Fukuda government seeks to leverage progress on climate to 
boost its political fortunes. 
 
¶5.  (C) In April, METI itself, long a strong opponent of 
cap-and-trade or mandatory greenhouse gas targets, announced 
it was undertaking a study of a possible mandatory domestic 
cap-and-trade system in Japan.  (Unlike MOE, METI has long 
opposed Kyoto-style caps, in line with the views of the 
Japanese industries whose interests METI represents.)  A few 
weeks later, Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura -- in essence, 
Japan's Deputy Prime Minister -- told the press, and Japan's 
chief climate change diplomat confirmed privately, the PM 
will announce a domestic goal for reducing Japanese 
greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, likely 60-80% from 2000 
levels. 
 
What Japan Wants from Aomori 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Japan is now trying to come across as ambitious as 
possible on climate change and be seen as a leader on the 
issue.  For some time now, Japan has been frustrated over 
getting little credit for action, particularly in comparison 
to the EU, even though Japan has one of the world's most 
energy-efficient economies.  Since the Kyoto Protocol 
measures emissions reductions against 1990 -- right after 
Japan's economy soured and investment into energy efficiency 
R&D dried up -- Japan now has Kyoto targets it cannot meet. 
Japan is supposed to cut emissions to 6% below 1990 levels by 
2012; they are now 8% above 1990 levels.  Even though METI 
has not supported the Kyoto Protocol the way others in the 
government have, there could again be sudden pressure in 
Aomori for a more ambitious output than the U.S. can accept 
-- as we saw in the Enviornment Ministerial. 
 
¶7.  (C) Japan's strategy to date has been to make proposals 
to draw "all major emitting countries" -- i.e., to include 
the U.S. and emerging economies such as China and India -- 
into a future framework, to address one of Kyoto's 
shortcomings.  Until now we have seen this as compatible with 
our goals in the MEM: to involve all the most important 
countries in discussions on the outline of a post-Kyoto 
climate treaty, so that we can engage emerging economies on 
the commitments they have been loath to discuss in UNFCCC 
meetings. 
 
¶8.  (C) Yet the Environment Ministerial in Kobe went beyond 
this, alienating the U.S with a proposal for a dialogue that 
would undermine the MEM.  Even though the Foreign Ministry 
has assured us repeatedly that as organizer for the Lake Toya 
G-8 Summit, it understands the parameters of the G8 process 
 
TOKYO 00001505  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
and the idea ministers should not be seen issuing 
instructions to or circumscribing the abilities of leaders to 
make decisions, MOE was certainly not so circumspect in Kobe. 
 
 
Ministerial Arrangements 
------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (C) METI Minister Akira Amari will chair each session of 
the Ministerial.  Secretary Bodman last met Amari on the 
margins of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on 
January 24, 2008.  In addition to the G8 Ministers, 
representatives from China, India, and Korea will participate 
in the outreach sessions.  Except for the IEA, the meeting is 
closed to other international organizations or NGO 
stakeholders. 
 
¶10.  (C) METI has coordinated with key officials at DOE, 
State, and the White House on what Japan wants to see on 
climate in the negotiated Joint Statement.  Officials at METI 
say Japan and the U.S. are on the same page on key points and 
that there will be no last-minute surprises on any of these 
issues in Aomori -- in contrast to the Enviornment Minister's 
actions at the G8 Ministerial in Kobe.  Although METI 
supports Japan's "Cool Earth 50" proposal to halve global 
emissions by 2050, it does not want to promote a long-term 
goal, or other specifics of a post-Kyoto climate change 
agreement, in Aomori.  Rather, METI officials want to focus 
discussion on how energy policy can contribute to solving the 
climate problem more generally.  METI identifies energy 
efficiency, the role of nuclear power, clean technology 
development, and the development of innovative technology 
roadmaps as the key climate topics it wants to cover, and 
officials reiterate their sense that Japan and the U.S. have 
common interests in all of them.  METI is not looking to 
discuss targets for any of these areas, nor is it looking to 
discuss new funding instruments or amounts of funding for 
climate change activities "at this moment," a METI official 
told emboffs May 30. 
 
¶11.  (C) METI officials say they are also particularly keen 
to mention the sectoral approach and a new innovative 
technology partnership in the Ministerial statement.  Japan 
discussed the sectoral approach with Chinese President Hu 
Jintao during his May visit to Japan and a METI energy white 
paper released last week promoted it again.  Japan included 
the sectoral approach in the Enviornment Minister's 
Chairman's Text as well as in other recent documents, 
including those in connection with the May 28 - 30 Tokyo 
International Conference on African Development.  METI 
officials report that in Amari's meeting with Secretary 
Bodman, the Minister will note eagerness to reach agreement 
with DOE on a joint statement to promote nuclear power, 
carbon capture and storage technology, zero-emission 
coal-burning power plants and energy from methane hydrates. 
Japan also will look to address high oil prices by calling 
for transparency and stability in global energy markets, an 
improved investment climate and better cooperation with the 
IEA in emergency preparedness. 
SCHIEFFER