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C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000379 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  6/30/2018 
TAGS: PTER MOPS PGOV PINR PK
SUBJECT: FATA: OFFICIALS CONTEMPLATE EXPANDING KHYBER OPERATION 
 
REF: PESHAWAR 376 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne M. Tracy, Principal Officer, Peshawar, DOS. 
 
REASON: 1.4 (a), (b), (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Frontier Corps operations in the Federally Administered 
Tribal Areas' (FATA) Khyber agency continued over the weekend, 
primarily destroying compounds and infrastructure associated 
with Laskhar-i Islam warlord Mangal Bagh.  One suspected Bagh 
supporter has been killed, and there are no reports of soldier 
casualties.  Mangal Bagh is reportedly in the nearby Tirah 
Valley.  The Frontier Corps is contemplating extending 
operations into the Tirah Valley as well as conducting a "sweep" 
operation on the Peshawar-Torkham road.  There are concerns that 
expanding the scope of the current Bara-based operation may lead 
to retaliatory attacks by militant and criminal groups. 
Violence is re-emerging in Swat.  Baitullah Mehsud announced on 
June 28 that peace talks had been "suspended." 
 
¶2. (C) Peshawar remains calm.  We assess a conventional frontal 
assault on Peshawar by militants and/or criminals to be highly 
unlikely.  Their tactics are more insidious, employing 
threatening night letters, bombing CD shops, and other means of 
creating an atmosphere of fear.  Mangal Bagh and other criminal 
groups had grown bolder in recent months, particularly when the 
government failed to muster a strong response in the spring to 
the violence emanating from Bara.  Militant connections of Bagh 
may have also been encouraged to step up intimidation around 
Peshawar in the face of the government's weak response.  The 
greater security danger now is fallout from this operation is an 
increase in targeted violence, directed at Pakistani government 
institutions.  We are maintaining a robust security posture and 
proceeding prudently in our movements around the city.  Post is 
continuing to monitoring the situation.  End Summary. 
 
Khyber Operations Miss Mangal Bagh 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) FATA Secretary for Law and Order Ghulam Qadir told post 
on June 30 that there has only been one militant casualty in the 
Khyber operation because Mangal Bagh and most of his "first and 
second tier" supporters were engaged in clashes in Khyber's 
Tirah Valley with a rival organization, Ansar-ul Islam. 
According to Qadir, Bagh's men who were left in Bara were 
instructed by the warlord "not to resist" the Frontier Corps 
operations.  (Note: Clashes broke out between Bagh's 
Lashkar-i-Islam (LI) organization and Ansar-ul Islam on June 21 
in the Tirah Valley after LI militants attacked an Ansar-ul 
Islam stronghold.  Approximately 40 people have reportedly been 
killed in the skirmishes.  NWFP Governor Ghani earlier told post 
that he was "instigating" conflict between rival groups in 
Khyber agency.  End note.) 
 
¶4. (C) Qadir confirmed that Frontier Corps forces had demolished 
Mangal Bagh's "headquarters," a ten-room complex with an 
adjacent prison and downplayed that capturing Mangal Bagh was 
the primary objective.  Destroying the buildings would limit 
Lashkar-i-Islam's capacity to "regroup" and retaliate against 
Peshawar.  (Note:  Post has heard no reports of anyone taken 
into custody from Bagh's group.  End Note.)  Qadir stated that a 
curfew had been placed only on Bara's main bazaar because it 
housed several ammunition shops.  Security forces captured a 
small radio station used by Mangal Bagh to communicate with 
locals captured.  Frontier Corps forces also apprehended four 
kidnappers who were taken into custody with pre-printed ransom 
notes. 
 
¶5. (C) Contacts at 11 Corps informed post's Liaison Officer on 
June 30 that operations in Khyber "are going very well."  The 
11th Corps officer said that operations were "half-way done" and 
expected them to continue for approximately two more days.  He 
said that the security situation in Peshawar has not noticeably 
changed and appraised that things were calm. 
 
Expanded Operations Considered 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) While Mangal Bagh's criminal organization is Frontier 
Corps' primary target, Qadir was doubtful whether the FC would 
pursue Bagh into Tirah Valley.  Qadir said that retaliatory 
attacks by Bagh or militants in Peshawar or elsewhere in the 
Northwest Frontier Province would be proportional to the extent 
that military operations were expanded outside of the Bara area. 
 He implied that at least a tacit understanding had been reached 
with Lashkar-i-Islam by noting that Mangal Bagh had agreed not 
to resist the operation in Bara. 
 
¶7. (C) According to Qadir, the Frontier Corps will likely 
conduct an operation to "sweep and clear" the main highway that 
runs from Peshawar to the Pakistan/Afghanistan border at 
Torkham.  He attributed this action to a series of recent 
attacks on and threats to transportation companies carrying 
supplies to coalition forces in Afghanistan.  Finally, Qadir 
said that an operation against Ansar-ul Islam was also being 
contemplated and said that doing so would be a sign that the 
Frontier Corps intended to "really clean up" Khyber agency. 
 
Drug Lord Targeted 
------------------ 
 
¶8. (C) Qadir stated that a June 30 explosion in the Bar 
Qambarkhel area, located two kilometers south of Bara, was not a 
missile strike as it is being portrayed in the press but was an 
"internal detonation."  The explosion, which killed at least 
five people, was likely targeted at local drug lord Munsif Khan 
who had been the target of at least one prior assassination 
attempt.  According to Qadir, Munsif Khan has loose connections 
to Baitullah Mehsud and other anti-coalition forces in Pakistan. 
 
Militants "Suspend" Peace Talks 
------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Following the commencement of military operations in 
Khyber, Baitullah Mehsud announced on June 28 that 
"Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan is suspending peace talks with the 
government.  This will apply not just to South Waziristan, but 
all areas, including Swat."  While Mehsud did not threaten to 
resume violence against GOP targets, he said that "if the 
operations continue, people will see Sindh and Punjab turned 
into a furnace."  Mehsud's top commanders in Bajaur, Mohmand, 
Darra Adamkhel and Swat endorsed his comments on June 29 and 
warned that Tehrik-i-Taliban would announce an action plan in a 
few days if operations were not called off. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Violence has reemerged both in Swat and Frontier 
Region Tank's Jandola area.  On June 29, six people, including 
two security personnel, were killed and several others were 
injured in Swat's Matta area when militants attacked a security 
patrol with a remote controlled bomb.  Militants have burned 
down approximately 11 girls' schools and a ski resort, and 
attacked security checkpoints at least three times since June 
¶21.  Militants loyal to Baitullah Mehsud attacked the city of 
Jandola on June 23 and later executed approximately 23 kidnapped 
tribal elders who belonged to a "peace committee" before 
security forces entered to reestablish order in the city. 
(Note:  The executed elders belonged to the small Bhittani tribe 
which has historically been associated with the government to 
help protect its interests against the larger Mehsud and Wazir 
tribes.  End Note.) 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. (C) Peshawar remains calm with reports of heavy contingents 
of paramilitary forces deployed on the outskirts of Peshawar's 
Hayatabad suburb and surrounding areas.  While businesses and 
government offices are open and functioning normally, local 
residents are bracing for some measure of retaliatory action by 
militants. 
 
TRACY