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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAHA 000043 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  6/3/2033 
TAGS: MARR MOPS PGOV PINS JA
SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVES MAY LOSE MAJORITY IN OKINAWA PREFECTURAL 
ASSEMBLY, BUT NO DIRECT IMPACT ON BASE REALIGNMENT PLAN EXPECTED 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Kevin K. Maher, Consul General, U.S. Consulate 
General, Naha, Japan, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (a), (b), (d) 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Our local political contacts echo private media 
views that the balance of power in the Okinawa Prefectural 
Assembly (OPA) may shift from the conservatives to the 
opposition reformists in the upcoming June 8 election.  Although 
most of the five parties who comprise the reformist grouping, as 
well as the local press, traditionally have a clear bias against 
the presence of US military bases on the island, in fact the US 
military presence has not been a major topic in this election. 
We expect that even if control of the OPA shifts to the 
reformists, this will have no direct impact on implementation of 
the agreed base realignment plans for Okinawa.  Decisions on 
issuing the permits required for the Environmental Impact 
Assessment and the landfill construction for the Futenma 
Replacement Facility (FRF) will remain in the hands of the 
conservative Governor, with the Prefectural Assembly having no 
role to play in this process.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Our contacts at the local Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 
Okinawa headquarters have confirmed what our media contacts tell 
us, that the upcoming June 8 election is likely to result in a 
loss of conservative LDP/Komeito control of the Okinawa 
Prefectural Assembly, with majority control shifting to a 
coalition of the five "reformist" parties.  At present, the 
conservatives hold 27 of 48 seats, the reformists 20, with one 
seat vacant.  The LDP Okinawa headquarters told us June 2 its 
latest survey shows only 18 seats as safe for the conservatives, 
with 22 safe for the reformists.  The LDP does not believe the 
conservatives can pick up seven of the remaining eight seats, 
which would be required to maintain majority control. 
 
¶3.  (C) The primary reason for the opposition's strength is a 
recent change to Japan's medical system for the elderly, which 
now requires those seventy-five years and older to pay for their 
own national health insurance rather than piggyback upon the 
health coverage of their adult children.  As in the rest of 
Japan, this has created an uproar in Okinawa and resentment 
against the LDP administration in Tokyo.  Polls taken last week 
show this to be the primary issue of concern in this election 
for both voters and candidates.  Those polls also show that the 
economy, the social welfare system, education, and jobs creation 
far outweigh base issues in the minds of the voters and 
candidates.  In fact, some of the reformist parties did not even 
include the base presence in their list of issues on which they 
are campaigning.  Redistricting also has hurt the LDP and 
Komeito in some of the urban areas.  To a certain extent the 
election is being played up as a referendum on the Governor's 
popularity a year and a half into his term.  This is not helping 
the conservatives, since the Governor has lost support even 
among conservatives for his inability to carry out campaign 
promises on such things as increasing tourism, creating more 
jobs and improving the welfare system.  He has lost support of 
the critical construction industry because of his inability to 
implement his promise to postpone heavy fines on the industry 
imposed for previous bid rigging on Okinawa Prefectural 
Government funded construction projects. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) It also is important to note that despite the best 
efforts of the two local newspapers to make it so, this 
Prefectural Assembly election is not a referendum on the base 
realignment plan generally or on FRF specifically.  The two 
papers ran editorials arguing that the election should be about 
FRF (note that the papers both argue Futenma should be moved 
outside of Okinawa, or simply closed, rather than relocated 
within the Prefecture).  But given that surveys showed most of 
the electorate and the candidates themselves are not including 
 
NAHA 00000043  002 OF 002 
 
 
base issues high on their lists of priorities, the papers were 
forced to admit that bread and butter issues are driving this 
election.  We do expect, however, that if the reformists do gain 
a majority in the Assembly, then the newspapers will do their 
best to make it appear that base issues were the root cause of 
any reformist victory in order to justify their continued 
anti-base editorial bias. 
 
¶5.  (C) Even if the reformists do gain control of the OPA in the 
June 8 election, our assessment is that this will not have a 
major impact on implementation of the DPRI base realignment 
plans agreed for Okinawa.  The OPA really has no role to play in 
implementation of those plans.  The reformists may criticize the 
Governor for cooperating with the central government on 
implementation, but the OPA has no mechanism to control or 
influence the Governor's decisions on whether or not to issue 
the permits required for certain stages of the on-going 
Environmental Impact Assessment procedures, or his decision on 
whether to issue the required permit to begin land-fill 
construction.  In short, the OPA has no role in the permitting 
process.  That authority will continue to lie with the Governor. 
MAHER