VZCZCXYZ0011
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLO #1568/01 1571428
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 051428Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8852
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 0627

C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 001568 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2018 
TAGS: PREL ECON KDEM SMIG ZU SF UK
SUBJECT: UK AND SOUTH AFRICA: JULY UK-RSA FORUM OPPORTUNITY 
TO "MEND FENCES" 
 
REF: LONDON 1426 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Richard Mills, reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
¶1. (C/NF) Summary.  South Africa (RSA) will host Foreign 
Secretary David Miliband and a high-level HMG delegation in 
Pretoria for the 8th bi-annual UK-RSA Bilateral Forum July 7 
- 8.  FCO officials describe the UK's relations with 
President Mbeki as "the worst the UK has had in recent 
history" -- a fact that perplexes Ministers -- and say the 
bilateral forum is designed to "mend fences."  FCO officials 
report that Ministers across HMG "fret" about the UK's 
relationship with RSA, need continual reminding of how the 
UK's apartheid policy affected many in the current RSA 
political elite, and need their expectations of what can be 
accomplished with RSA carefully managed.  The Forum agenda 
has not been set yet.  Ministers wanted a more "free-flowing, 
ideas-based, Labour-style discussion," but the South Africans 
wanted a detailed, written agenda.  The UK hopes to frame the 
discussion around the FCO's new strategic priorities 
(reftel), including conflict prevention, counter-terrorism 
and counter-proliferation, climate change, and migration. 
Zimbabwe, with the second round of elections scheduled days 
before the forum, is also likely to feature prominently in 
discussions and remains the "thorn in the UK-RSA bilateral 
relationship."  Potential new visa requirements for South 
Africans to visit the UK may also make discussions 
uncomfortable.  There is currently a lot of bad blood between 
the UK and President Mbeki, and the bilateral forum is 
unlikely to improve that relationship.  End summary. 
 
The "Odd Relationship" 
---------------------- 
¶2. (C/NF) In separate meetings on May 23 and June 4, the Head 
of the Foreign Office's Africa Department - South, Janet 
Douglas, and Southern Africa Section Team Leader, John Smith, 
described the UK's "odd relationship" with South Africa (RSA) 
and Ministers' desire to improve relations.  Douglas said the 
UK's relationship with President Mbeki is "the worst the UK 
has had in recent history, which Ministers fret about."  FCO 
Minister for Africa Lord Malloch-Brown, in particular, has 
been frustrated with how unproductive RSA has been in the UN, 
especially given the fact that Prime Minister Brown attended 
the UNSC debate on Africa in April.  Douglas said that FCO 
officials have to "constantly manage Ministers' expectations 
about what can and will be done" with RSA and how the UK's 
"unhelpful policies during apartheid directly affected many 
who are in power now."  Smith said RSA's problems with the UK 
stem from the fact UK foreign policy is still seen by many 
South Africans to "smack of colonialism." 
 
An Opportunity to Mend Fences 
----------------------------- 
¶3. (C/NF) Douglas said the UK-RSA Bilateral Forum July 7 - 8 
in Pretoria will be "an opportunity to mend fences and move 
beyond the bilateral relationship to strategic priorities." 
Foreign Secretary David Miliband will lead the UK delegation 
and will be accompanied by Secretary of State of Environment, 
Food and Rural Affairs Hilary Benn; Home Office Minister of 
State for Security and Counter-Terrorism Tony McNulty; 
Minister of State for Public Health Dawn Primarolo; and Joint 
FCO - Department for Business, Enterprise, and Regulatory 
Reform Minister of State Lord Digby Jones. 
 
Working Through the Agenda: 
Zim Elections Could Make It Uncomfortable 
----------------------------------------- 
¶4. (C/NF) Smith said Ministers had hoped to have "a 
free-flowing, ideas-based, Labour-style discussion" to build 
relationships with RSA political elites, but RSA has insisted 
on a detailed, written agenda, which has not yet been 
determined.  Smith thought there would be a "tour d'horizon" 
of foreign policy issues, including Zimbabwe, Sudan, Somalia, 
the Middle East Peace Process, Iraq, and international 
institution reform.  With Zimbabwe's second round of 
elections set for June 27, just days before the Forum 
convenes, Smith thought Zimbabwe could produce some 
"uncomfortable discussions depending on the results," with 
the UK likely making strong statements about violence, 
intimidation, and manipulation and RSA likely defending the 
contest as free and fair.  Smith said Zimbabwe was the "thorn 
in the UK-RSA bilateral relationship." 
 
The Rest of the Agenda: 
Migration and the UK's Visa Requirements 
---------------------------------------- 
¶5. (C/NF) In addition to discussing conflict prevention and 
peacekeeping, counter-terrorism and counter-proliferation, 
and climate change, the UK plans to discuss migration. 
According to Smith, HMG is in the middle of a world-wide 
 
review of its visa requirements for all non-OECD countries, 
and initial results from the second phase of the project 
indicate that RSA citizens "may be at risk" of needing visas. 
 Smith said Ministers want to discuss this with RSA before 
any final decisions are made in order to mitigate the 
inevitable fallout of any new visa requirements.  Smith said 
a decision will be made in "about six months" and it will be 
"a difficult call either way." 
 
International Institution Reform and a RSA UNSC Seat 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
¶6. (C/NF) Smith said the South Africans were "excited and 
nervous" after Foreign Secretary Miliband made comments in 
September 2007 about RSA having a "clear claim" to a seat on 
the UN Security Council, a comment Miliband later backtracked 
on.  Smith said that since Miliband's public comments "there 
has officially been no clear UK position on which African 
member state should be on the UNSC;" however, the internal UK 
preference is RSA, as HMG thinks RSA has the capacity to 
perform the function and will be "less difficult with its 
Africa-ness affirmed" by being the African permanent UNSC 
member. Smith also intimated that RSA officials quietly 
appreciated the UK's vote of confidence, but said clear UK 
support for RSA would make rallying African support for RSA's 
candidacy more difficult. 
 
On Brown and Zuma 
----------------- 
¶7. (C/NF) Smith said Prime Minister Brown and ANC President 
Jacob Zuma had an "uncharacteristically long, two-hour 
meeting" in April when Zuma visited the UK.  While Brown and 
Zuma had met under the auspices of being the leaders of 
sister political parties, Smith was confident that the 
meeting had irritated President Mbeki, who "has never gotten 
on well with Brown."  Smith said Brown and Zuma had had a 
very good meeting and had even struck up a personal rapport. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶8. (C/NF) At present, there is a lot of bad blood between the 
UK and President Mbeki, and the bilateral relationship will 
likely not improve until there is a change in RSA leadership 
and some movement on Zimbabwe, i.e. President Mugabe leaves 
office or RSA denounces the second round of elections.  The 
UK-RSA Bilateral Forum, a long standing commitment, appears 
to be a UK attempt to invest in a better future bilateral 
relationship with South Africa, but is unlikely to improve 
current relations.  End comment. 
 
Visit London's Classified Website: 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Unit ed_Kingdom 
LeBaron