O 241502Z JUN 08
FM AMCONSUL LAHORE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3715
INFO AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD IMMEDIATE 
AMCONSUL KARACHI IMMEDIATE 
AMCONSUL PESHAWAR IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 
AMEMBASSY KABUL 
CIA WASHDC
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
HQ USCENTCOM  MACDILL AFB FL
AMCONSUL LAHORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAHORE 000221 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  6/24/2018 
TAGS: PGOV KJUS PK
SUBJECT: NAWAZ INELIGIBLE TO CONTEST ELECTIONS 
 
Derived from: DSCG 05-1, D 
 
¶1. (C)  Summary:  In a surprise verdict, the Lahore High Court 
ruled on June 23 that Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N) 
leader and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was ineligible to 
contest the June 26 National Assembly by-elections.  In the same 
ruling, his brother Punjab Chief Minister and PML-N President 
Shahbaz Sharif was allowed to retain his provincial seat while 
deliberations on his eligibility continued within an election 
tribunal.  The PML-N has strongly condemned the verdict, 
claiming that the court was pressured by both President 
Musharraf and Pakistan Peoples Party Co-Chairman Zardari to 
invalidate Nawaz's candidacy.  In a late night session on June 
23, PML-N leaders decided not/not to appeal the High Court's 
ruling to the Federal Supreme Court, as doing so could be 
interpreted as recognition of the judiciary installed by 
President Musharraf on November 3, 2007.  Instead, the party 
intends to engage in street protests throughout the Punjab 
scheduled to begin on the evening of June 24.  Given the party's 
and Nawaz Sharif's increasing popularity within the Punjab, such 
protests could be sizeable in key urban areas.  PML-N leaders 
told post that the protest strategy would be designed to 
pressure its coalition partner the PPP to use its influence with 
the sitting Chief Justice of Pakistan to encourage a suo moto 
judgement overturning the Lahore High Court's verdict.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) On June 23, a reconstituted bench of the Lahore High 
Court issued a verdict declaring PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif 
ineligible to contest a National Assembly seat in the June 26 
by-elections.  The court verdict concluded that Nawaz was 
ineligible due to a 2000 conviction on terrorism charges, 
stemming from his attempts to prevent the landing of then-Chief 
of Army Staff Musharraf's commercial flight to Pakistan during 
the 1999 overthrow of his government.  The court found that 
Nawaz's claim that the convictions had been pardoned by 
then-President Rafique Tarar at the time of Nawaz's departure 
for exile in Saudi Arabia lacked an evidentiary basis.  The 
refusal of Nawaz to present evidence at the Lahore High Court, 
part of his refusal to recognize the judiciary installed by 
President Musharraf on November 3, 2007, appeared to play a 
significant role in the bench's verdict.  The court found that 
briefs arguing in favor of Nawaz's position filed by attornies 
acting as "friends of the court" lacked sufficient evidence to 
invalidate Nawaz's criminal conviction. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The same Lahore High Court bench refused to take 
similar action to invalidate PML-N President Shahbaz Sharif's 
uncontested elections to two provincial assembly seats earlier 
in June, which cleared the way for him to assume the office of 
the Punjab Chief Minister.  The court determined that the 
challenge to Shahbaz's eligibility, stemming from his 
participation in the storming of the Supreme Court in 1999, 
required further evidentiary review by an Election Tribunal to 
determine whether he had in fact insulted the nation's judiciary 
-- a disqualifaction for elected office under the Pakistani 
Constitution.  Like his brother, Shahbaz had refused to present 
evidence at the Lahore High Court, but the bench found that in 
his case, there was no clearly disqualifying act presented by 
the petitioners.  The court's verdict specifically permitted 
Shahbaz to continue as Chief Minister while the Election 
Tribunal proceedings -- which can often take years to complete 
-- go forward. 
 
¶4. (SBU) PML-N leaders publicly condemned the Lahore High 
Court's verdict.  They claimed that the speed with which the 
reconstituted bench deliberated on the case (less than 24 hours) 
was evidence that President Musharraf and/or PPP Co-Chairman 
Zardari had influenced the court.  Public statements attempted 
to portray this "injustice" as direct evidence that judicial 
independence could only be ensured by removing all those judges 
who took oath following the November 3, 2007 state of emergency 
and the restoration of the pre-November 3 judiciary.  The "weak" 
reaction of its coalition partner, the PPP, to Nawaz's 
disqualification was condemned and in some circles taken as 
further evidence of Zardari's involvement in the verdict. 
 
¶5. (C) Party sources who attended the late night June 23 
leadership meeting in Raiwind confirmed press reports that Nawaz 
Sharif would not/not appeal the verdict to the federal Supreme 
Court and that Shahbaz would not take part in the proceedings of 
the Election Tribunal.  Despite strong protests from key 
leaders, including Ahsan Iqbal and Ishaq Dar, Nawaz reportedly 
took this firm stance as part of his refusal to compromise on 
any recognition of the legitimacy of judges who took oath 
following the November 3 state of emergency.  Nawaz ostensibly 
determined that his refusal to appeal would further strengthen 
his populist, anti-establishment political credentials, even if 
it denied him a seat in parliament.  Sources reported that the 
same logic was at play in Shahbaz's decision not/not to 
participate in the Election Tribunal.  However, they noted that 
as a practical matter, Election Tribunals rarely heard cases in 
a timely fashion and any decision would likely be years in the 
making.  They speculated that the establishment intended to use 
the threat posed by the Election Tribunal case as a way to 
influence Shahbaz's behavior during his tenure as Chief Minister. 
 
¶6. (C) PML-N sources further reported that the party intends to 
rely on "street power" to protest and hopefully invalidate the 
High Court decision.  The party intended to begin a series of 
protests across the Punjab designed to shut down key 
thoroughfares in urban and rural areas, beginning on the evening 
of June 24.  To date, only small, sporadic, largely non-violent 
protests have occurred in a handful of urban locations.  PML-N 
leaders reportedly believe that such protests may (1) force the 
PPP to issue a strong statement of condemnation against the 
verdict, (2) increase pressure on the PPP to restrore the 
pre-November 3 judiciary through an act of parliament, and (3) 
encourage the PPP to intervene with the current Chief Justice to 
obtain a suo moto invalidation of the Lahore High Court's 
actions.  Note:  Post contacts surmise that the current Supreme 
Court, including Chief Justice Dogar, is feeling under 
increasing pressure to improve its public image in order to 
retain their seats following judicial restoration.  Suo moto 
action that allowed Nawaz Sharif to seek election to parliament 
would undoubtedly serve this goal.  End Note. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment:  The irony is that Nawaz probably is ineligible 
to contest a parliamentary seat under the Pakistani constitution 
due to his criminal conviction.  His exile in Saudi Arabia was a 
result of a commutation of his sentence not a pardon, meaning 
that the Lahore High Court's verdict is probably legally correct 
and it is Nawaz, who is looking for a politicized decision from 
the court.  Such ironies, however, will have little sway in the 
public perception, as Nawaz's politics of defiance on the 
judicial restoration issue continue to play well in the public 
imagination.  His stance is generally viewed as principaled and 
selfless in contrast to PPP leaders who are increasingly being 
portrayed as playing politics as usual.  Nawaz's refusal to seek 
injunctive relief from the current Supreme Court, which could 
well overturn the High Court's verdict, will likely reinforce 
this political image.  Street protests, particularly if active 
PML-N support and financing occur, may well materialize in the 
province.  These are, however, likely to remain orderly.  The 
largest will probably occur in areas of strongest PML-N support, 
particularly the Old City areas of Lahore and Faisalabad.  In 
our view, such protests are unlikely to force the current 
courts' hands on the issue of Nawaz's eligibility, but they will 
increase pressure on the PPP to follow the PML-N's roadmap for 
restoration of the November 3 judiciary, particularly if the 
PML-N continues its vocal criticism of the PPP's lukewarm 
reaction to the verdict.  End Comment. 
 
HUNT