VZCZCXRO1825
OO RUEHCI
DE RUEHKA #0656/01 1700129
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 180129Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY DHAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6939
INFO RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO PRIORITY 8502
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 2231
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU PRIORITY 9738
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0706
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA PRIORITY 1349

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000656 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PINS KDE KCOR BG
SUBJECT: IMPRISONED FORMER PM KHALEDA ZIA REMAINS DEFIANT 
 
REF: A. DHAKA 0608 
     ¶B. DHAKA 0633 
     ¶C. DHAKA 0632 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
------ 
SUMMARY 
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¶1. (C) Nearly a week after Awami League President Sheikh 
Hasina was paroled from prison to seek medical attention 
abroad, a deal to free imprisoned Bangladesh Nationalist 
Party (BNP) Chairperson Khaleda Zia appears elusive. 
Complicating matters are Khaleda Zia's insistence that her 
two jailed sons be sent abroad unconditionally for medical 
treatment and that she remain in Bangladesh. Despite broad 
speculation a deal between the Caretaker Government and 
Khaleda Zia will be cut soon, there is little talk of 
compromise from her and her supporters, not only on her fate 
but on BNP participation in Parliamentary elections scheduled 
for December. Still, Khaleda Zia's concern for her sons' 
health and the Caretaker Government's desire to have the BNP 
participate in elections suggest an accomodation may be 
reached. 
 
------------------------------- 
A THREESOME COMPLICATES MATTERS 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Former Prime Ministers Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia 
both were jailed by the Caretaker Government last year on 
graft charges. Negotiating the terms of Sheikh Hasina's 
release from jail was relatively simple, primarily because 
she was eager to go abroad to visit her son, daughter, 
grandchild and sister. The main stumbling block appeared to 
be getting all components of the regime, especially the 
Directorate General of Forces Intelligence, to agree to terms 
of her release. Khaleda Zia, on the other hand, is insisting 
her two ailing sons be released from prison immediately to go 
abroad for medical treatment. The Caretaker Government 
appears particularly nervous about what to do with her eldest 
son, Tarique Rahman: his reputation for gross corruption and 
brutality has created worries he could greatly damage 
Bangladesh's frail democracy should he return to politics 
(see Reftel A). Resolution of his fate may hinge in part on 
whether his mother is willing to accompany him abroad; 
Tarique's sister-in-law earlier told the Embassy that Khaleda 
Zia was under pressure from the Government to leave the 
country with him. That would provide political symmetry with 
the compromise over Sheikh Hasina, but Khaleda Zia defiantly 
declared in a June 16 court appearance she would not go 
abroad. 
 
¶3. (C) BNP Joint Secretary General Nazrul Islam Khan told 
PolOff recently that he believed the government would reach 
an accomodation with Khaleda Zia and her sons because she 
remains popular within the military. Nazrul, who is a party 
moderate, said his "hunch" was that upon being released she 
would spend a week or more working to reunify and reorganize 
the party before going abroad to be with her sons, Tarique 
and Arafat Rahman Koko. Upon her release, Nazrul continued, 
she would support BNP dialogue with the Caretaker Government 
on the country's democratic future, just as Sheikh Hasina had 
supported Awami League participation. Still, he acknowledged 
that Khaleda Zia was keeping close counsel and handling her 
negotiations with the Government on her own, making it 
difficult to gain insight into her current thinking. 
 
-------------------------------- 
BNP: AMBIVALENCE TOWARD ELECTIONS 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) While the fate of Khaleda Zia remains uncertain, 
efforts to reunify a breakway reformist faction with her 
loyalists appear on hold. Muhammad Nawshad Zamir, one of her 
lawyers, and BNP Office Secretary Mohammad Ruhul Kabir Rizvi 
told PolOff there could be no reconciliation until Maj. 
(retired) Hafiz Uddin Ahmed, named acting BNP Secretary 
General at a gathering of reformists in October, denounced 
that meeting as "inappropriate." The loyalists indicated they 
were not interested in taking the lead in uniting the party's 
two factions, which presumably would be a prerequisite to a 
strong BNP election campaign. (Comment: Rizvi in particular 
might be taking a hard line on reunification because his 
position within the party could suffer should senior 
reformists return to the fold. End Comment) 
 
 
DHAKA 00000656  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶5. (C) Nawshad also said that, in a courtroom conversation 
with Khaleda Zia earlier this month, she had expressed 
distrust of Chief of Army Staff Gen. Moeen Uddin Ahmed. 
(Note: Moeen, a key supporter of the Caretaker Government, is 
perceived by many BNP leaders to be biased toward the Awami 
League. End note.) Nawshad said Moeen's resignation could be 
a BNP precondition for participating in the elections. 
Nawshad and Rizvi also raised as a possible precondition the 
resignation of the three-member Election Commission, which 
lost credibility in the eyes of BNP loyalists after it 
invited the reformists to talks on electoral reforms. Khaleda 
Zia herself, however, has not commented specifically on 
whether she would make such demands upon her release from 
jail or on how she would approach the issue of reunification. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
IT'S NOT ALL ROSES FOR THE AWAMI LEAGUE 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) While the BNP remains in visible disarray, the 
appearance of Awami League unity under Sheikh Hasina is 
somewhat misleading. The day Sheikh Hasina left Dhaka for the 
United States, Awami League Presidium Member Amir Hossain Amu 
told PolOff he would conduct a "whispering campaign" among 
local party activists against her continued leadership. He 
said he could not work with her over the long-term and 
confirmed he barely spoke with her in the hours between her 
release from jail and departure abroad. Amu had privately 
urged the regime not to release Sheikh Hasina to go abroad; 
he acknowledged that his political hopes now depended on her 
being convicted on at least one of the several graft charges 
against her. (Note: Sheikh Hasina's graft trials can continue 
in her absence. End note.) 
 
------------------------------- 
COMMENT: WHO WILL BLINK FIRST? 
------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Although Khaleda Zia and the Caretaker Government 
appear locked in a battle of wills, an eventual compromise 
makes sense for both sides. Recent court appearances by her 
two sons underscored the fragile state of their health. The 
authorities no doubt hope that concerns about their health 
will spur Khaleda Zia to reach an accomodation to get them 
medical care abroad. Meanwhile, the regime realizes BNP 
participation in political dialogue and in December elections 
is unlikely without her release. The main sticking points 
appear to be Tarique Rahman's political future and whether 
Khaleda Zia will stay in Bangladesh or accompany her sons 
abroad upon release from jail. Should she go, Nazrul is among 
those who feel the prospects for a more stable political 
environment in the run-up to December elections would 
brighten. So too might prospects of loosening the two ladies' 
decades-old iron grip on Bangladeshi politics. 
 
 
Moriarty