VZCZCXRO8246
OO RUEHCI
DE RUEHKA #0588/01 1531143
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 011143Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY DHAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6834
INFO RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 8472
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 2201
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 9706
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0673
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 1320
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000588 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/PB 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PHUM KDEM BG
SUBJECT: POLITICAL DIALOGUE SPUTTERS AS HARDLINERS STRIKE 
BACK 
 
REF: DHAKA 578 (EXDIS) 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty.  Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
Summary 
======= 
 
¶1. (C) The decision by Bangladesh's major political parties 
to abstain from the formal dialogue as long as their leaders 
remain in prison has increased doubts about the likelihood of 
elections by the end of 2008.  The subsequent decision by the 
security forces to arrest senior politicians and scores of 
grassroots party leaders may reduce the likelihood of 
protests in the short run but risks a further hardening of 
positions over time.  In this environment, there has been 
increased talk of a possible "National Government" taking 
over from the current Caretaker Government and an indefinite 
postponement of elections.  We continue to emphasize the need 
for compromise and a process that sets the conditions for 
free, fair, and credible elections by the end of the year. 
With only seven months remaining in the Caretaker 
Government's mandate, Bangladesh appears to be entering a 
critical phase in its political transition. 
 
Major Parties Boycott Polls 
=========================== 
 
¶2.  (C) Following two days of deliberation including the 
party's first expanded meeting with local leaders in seven 
years, Awami League acting President Zillur Rahman announced 
May 27 that his party would not participate in the proposed 
political dialogue without imprisoned leader Sheikh Hasina. 
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party was quick to follow suit, 
demanding former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia be released 
as a precondition for the party's participation in the 
dialogue.  Reacting to the May 18 arrest of Ameer Motiur 
Rahman Nizami, the Jamaat-e-Islami has also called upon the 
government to release the three detained leaders to make the 
dialogue meaningful.  Almost unnoticed, other smaller parties 
continue to meet with the Caretaker Advisers.  For their 
part, the Advisers have pledged to try to convince the major 
parties to change their minds.  A few mid-level AL and BNP 
leaders hold out some hope this could happen. 
 
¶3.  (C)  While the parties have publicly presented a unified 
position regarding participation in the dialogue, their 
internal divisions, largely related to the issue of the 
future role of their detained leaders, are becoming 
increasingly apparent.  Within the Awami League, an 
anti-Hasina group led by Amir Hossain Amu, Abdur Razzak, and 
Suranjit Sen Gupta is attempting to gain control of the 
party.  Meanwhile, the efforts to reunify the BNP under 
acting Secretary General Khondker Delwar Hossain have 
stalled, with members of the "eformist" faction now 
reportedly being targeted for retribution by loyalists at the 
local level.  Of all the parties, the Jamaat-e-Islami appears 
to be the most disciplined and best able to weather the loss 
of its senior leader.  It remains weakened, however, by the 
continuing controversy over the party's pro-Pakistan stance 
during the 1971 War of Liberation. 
 
Crackdown on Parties Reportedly Underway 
======================================== 
 
¶4.  (C) The June 1 morning newspapers in Dhaka led with 
reports of the previous day's mass arrests of local level 
party officials throughout Bangladesh.  While the Inspector 
General of Police claimed that this operation by the Joint 
Forces (police, military, and Rapid Action Battalion) had 
arrested individuals wanted for a range of crimes, press 
reports indicated that many detained held influential 
positions in local party structures.  Most of those detained 
under the Emergency Power Rules were members of the AL and 
BNP: there are estimates that over 500 individuals have been 
arrested through June 1. The press has speculated that this 
campaign will continue, and many party workers have gone into 
hiding.  Some see the arrests as a move to preempt possible 
demonstrations.  They may also be an attempt to tilt the 
internal balance of power within the parties away from the 
imprisoned leaders. 
 
¶5. (C) Following the arrests of Jamaat Ameer Nizami, and 
former BNP Ministers M.K. Anwar, Shamsul Islam, and Abdul 
Mannan Bhuiyan in a corruption case involving former Prime 
 
DHAKA 00000588  002 OF 002 
 
 
Minister Zia, leaders of the political parties fear that they 
may be targeted as part of the anti-corruption drive.  Awami 
League Presidium Member Tofail Ahmed, along with his wife and 
daughter, have been charged with submitting a false wealth 
report.  Ahmed, who in the days after January 11, 2007 had 
been identified with the AL's reformist group, has protested 
his innocence and claimed that he is the target of political 
persecution.  On May 31, Ahmed claimed that over 1,000 party 
supporters had visited his home to express support. 
Meanwhile, Jamaat Secretary General Ali Ahsan Mohammad 
Mojahid failed in his attempt to obtain bail in the 
Barapukuria corruption case in which he has been implicated. 
 On May 31, Jatiya Party Secretary General Ruhul Amin 
Howlader told us that the Anti Corruption Commission had 
opened an investigation into his finances.  Taken together, 
some politicians and others believe that this is part of a 
campaign to remove the leadership of the parties, 
particularly those who remain loyal to their detained 
leaders.  In the local shorthand, "Minus Two" has been 
replaced by "Minus 200," i.e. the decimation of the senior 
levels of the parties.  That said, almost all of these 
individuals have been under investigation on credible 
corruption charges for months. 
 
Rumors of National Government Proliferate 
========================================= 
 
¶6.  (C) The prospect of a failed dialogue, and the arrests of 
those loyal to the detained former Prime Ministers, have 
fueled rumors that some may be preparing to impose a 
"National Government" and postpone elections.  A handful of 
politicians tell us that they have openly advocated this 
option, and even a few respected members of civil society 
appear willing to sacrifice elections for the promise of 
stability.  The vernacular press is full of rumors that such 
a "national government" could be formed in the coming months, 
under the leadership of a neutral respected figure, e.g. a 
former Chief Justice.  Such a government might decide to seek 
a mandate through a referendum to continue reforms and 
postpone the return to parliamentary democracy.  There is no 
indication that the population at large would support such a 
move, however. 
 
Embassy Stresses Need for Compromise Leading to Elections 
============================================= ============ 
 
¶7.  (C) In this politically charged environment, we have used 
our public and private comments to emphasize the importance 
of adhering to the CTG's electoral roadmap and holding 
elections by the end of 2008.  In his speech to the 
Bangladesh Political Scientists Association on May 31, the 
Ambassador stressed the importance of strengthening 
institutions and holding elections.  The Ambassador also 
urged both the Government and the parties to negotiate in 
good faith and be willing to compromise to reach a mutually 
agreeable solution.  We are coordinating with like-minded 
diplomats and will continue to press these points with the 
government.  We are also seeking an explanation from the CTG 
for the recent wave of arrests and plan to caution the 
government against actions that would poison the atmosphere 
for elections. 
 
Comment 
======= 
 
¶8.  (C) One Bangladeshi political observer commented that his 
countrymen like to build up idols, only to tear them down. 
He used this analogy to explain the CTG's current 
predicament.  The government entered with a strong mandate in 
January 2007 and enjoyed the support of both the domestic and 
international community.  Few doubt the sincerity of the CTG 
in wanting to hand over power to an elected government by the 
end of the year.  Given Bangladesh's lack of a culture of 
political compromise, however, the CTG faces a challenge in 
creating an environment conducive to elections by the end of 
the year.  As time passes, the hardliners on both sides may 
choose to dig in and try to have their way through force 
rather than through negotiations.  It will be critical for 
the USG and others in the international community to remain 
engaged.  We are not in the endgame yet, but the options 
available are beginning to diminish. 
Moriarty