P 260736Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9762
INFO AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 
NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 000644 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM AS
SUBJECT: FORMER HOWARD MINISTER ON RUDD, POLITICS, AND 
INDIGENOUS AFFAIRS 
 
REF: 07 CANBERRA 956 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Robert D. McCallum for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d 
). 
 
 ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Former Howard Government Indigenous 
Affairs Minister Mal Brough, who has just been elected 
president of the Liberal Party in Queensland, told the 
Ambassador June 25 that complaints of overcentralization in 
the Prime Minister's office reflected the natural tendency of 
fellow Queenslander Kevin Rudd to control the process of 
governing, something he had also done when he ran the 
Queensland state government.  Commenting on the leadership of 
the Liberal Party, he said that it was clear the public had 
made up its mind about Brendan Nelson and his approval rating 
was unlikely to improve.  Malcolm Turnbull cared only about 
Turnbull and his attempts to undermine Nelson's leadership 
had cost him support in the Liberal Party.  Brough noted that 
he was in the middle of negotiations regarding the merger of 
the Liberal and National Parties in Queensland.  He favored 
the merger but it was still unclear if it would take place. 
On indigenous issues, Brough lamented the fact that the 
process he had begun with the intervention a year ago seemed 
to be going backward.  Rudd, he said, was not seriously 
committed to helping the indigenous.  END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (C/NF) Brough met with the Ambassador in Canberra on June 
¶25.  He had been the federal MP for the seat of Longman, in 
the Northern suburbs of Brisbane, from 1996 until last 
November's federal election.  Brough said he knew more than a 
year before the election that he would lose his seat to the 
Australian Labor Party (ALP) candidate but that he and John 
Howard had decided he was the Liberal Party's best chance. 
In 2006, former Prime Minister John Howard appointed him 
Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous 
Affairs.  In June 2007, after receiving a report of rampant 
child abuse on indigenous communities in the Northern 
Territories (called "The Little Children are Sacred" see 
reftel), Brough convinced Howard to order the federal 
government to intervene in the indigenous communities in the 
Northern Territories (NT).  Brough withdrew from politics for 
several months after his election defeat but stayed actively 
involved in indigenous affairs.  In May, he was elected 
President of the Queensland Liberal Party and is currently 
negotiating a merger of the Liberal and National Parties in 
Queensland. 
 
RUDD THE CONTROLLER 
 
¶3. (C/NF) Commenting on fellow Queenslander Kevin Rudd's 
governing style, Brough said that the Prime Minister's office 
will continue to centralize the decision-making process. 
Rudd had been obsessed with controlling the governing process 
in Queensland when he worked for Premier Wayne Goss and he 
was continuing that style in Canberra.  Brough noted that the 
press gallery had already turned against Rudd and the senior 
public service was "livid."  Brough recounted that senior 
public servants he had talked to complained they would get 
requests at 6:30am to deliver a report at 7:30am and then 
never hear another word on the subject.  However, Brough 
agreed that Rudd's popularity with the voting public remains 
high.  Brough predicted that the public will realize what 
Rudd is like in 12-18 months and his popularity would fall. 
The Liberal Party could take advantage of this, Brough 
maintained, if it could straighten out its leadership 
situation. 
 
LIBERAL PARTY LEADERSHIP 
 
¶4. (C/NF) Brough said he thought Liberal Party Leader Brendan 
Q4. (C/NF) Brough said he thought Liberal Party Leader Brendan 
Nelson was a good man but unfortunately, the public had not 
warmed up to him.  Some politicians, like former Australian 
Labor Party (ALP) leaders Kim Beazley and Simon Crean and now 
Nelson, just never resonated with the public and their 
polling numbers reflected that.  Malcolm Turnbull had lost 
support in the Coalition parliamentary caucus, Brough stated. 
 Turnbull was only interested in Turnbull and his constant 
undermining of Nelson had hurt him in the eyes of many of his 
colleagues.  Some in the Liberal caucus supported Turnbull as 
Leader only because they wanted to put him in a position to 
fail, Brough declared.  He thought that Turnbull would become 
Opposition Leader at some point in the future and would land 
some blows on the Government as Leader but he predicts 
Turnbull would ultimately fail.  The public support for 
Costello returning as Leader, Brough noted, was likely a 
reflection of concern about the economy.  He said he had seen 
Costello recently and even though they were good friends, 
Costello refused to reveal his future intentions.  Brough 
opined that he thought Costello's chance and desire to be 
Leader had passed. 
 
LIBERAL-NATIONAL MERGER HANGS IN THE BALANCE 
 
¶5. (C/NF) Brough told the Ambassador the merger between the 
Liberal and National parties in Queensland was not yet 
settled.  National Party Leader Lawrence Springborg and some 
of the state party officials, he said, did not understand 
what they needed to do and they regarded Brough as a 
potential rival.  For example, one merger proposal called for 
all current National and Liberal Party incumbents to keep 
their seats for one term.  A new right-of-center, merged 
party could only succeed if it presented itself as something 
new, Brough explained.  What kind of message did this 
incumbency policy send about renewal?  Brough noted that the 
negotiations through this weekend would be decisive.  Ballots 
on the merger were due from Liberal Party members by Monday 
and he would be announcing the result on Tuesday. 
 
THE NATIONAL PARTY IS FINISHED 
 
¶6. (C/NF) A merger in Queensland was essential, Brough 
declared, because the National Party could not win any seats 
in Southeast Queensland.  The people from Sydney and 
Melbourne who had moved to Queensland recognized only the 
Liberal Party and the ALP as political brands.  The National 
Party meant nothing to them, he said.  If you looked at the 
National's federal MPs, they were mostly over 60.  Once they 
left, the Liberal Party or the ALP would win their seats.  In 
the near future, Brough predicted, the Nationals would have 
less than five seats in Parliament, and no longer be a 
recognized party.  Brough said a federal merger would also 
make sense but the best chance for success was this year 
(presumably because of the likely Queensland merger and the 
policy review currently being conducted by both Coalition 
parties). 
 
INDIGENOUS INTERVENTION 
 
¶7. (C/NF) Brough lamented what he said was the flagging 
federal government commitment to the NT intervention.  Rudd 
and Indigenous Affairs Minister Jenny Macklin did not know 
what to do, he maintained.  Rudd had issued the apology to 
the indigenous in Australia, but he had yet to visit an 
aboriginal community (NOTE: Rudd has visited a community in 
New South Wales but none in the Northern Territories). 
Children were healthier and going to school, Brough noted, 
but the concept of school was still alien to many in the 
communities.   Meanwhile, the Government of South Australia 
had received a report on child sexual abuse as damning as the 
"Little Children are Sacred" report and neither it nor the 
federal government had responded (NOTE: the April 2008 report 
by former state Supreme Court judge Ted Mullighan).  Brough 
said he was working with members of the indigenous community 
in South Australia to get them to identify for the police the 
pedophiles and sexual predators. 
 
¶8. (C/NF) COMMENT: Brough is a staunch member of the Liberal 
Party so he is unlikely to make flattering comments about 
Rudd and the ALP.  On the other hand, Brough, like Rudd, is 
from Queensland so he may know the Prime Minister better than 
most other commentators.  His comments on the Liberal Party 
track what we have heard from other sources.  Rudd and 
Macklin have in fact adopted much of the Howard Government's 
intervention in the NT, although their approach appears to be 
more cautious and consultative.   Brough is extremely popular 
in Queensland, and, if he eventually returns to federal 
politics, it will be good news for a Liberal Party that will 
Qpolitics, it will be good news for a Liberal Party that will 
need to win some of the Queensland seats that local boys Rudd 
and Treasurer Wayne Swan helped the ALP win in 2007. 
 
MCCALLLUM