VZCZCXRO8601
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHBK #1671/01 1540942
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 020942Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3230
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001671 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR PHU 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: PM MAKES EMPTY THREAT TO DISPERSE DEMONSTRATORS 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C)  SUMMARY: The government stood down from threats to 
disperse the week-long protest by the People's Alliance for 
Democracy (PAD) after a day-long, tense confrontation on May 
¶31.  Prime Minister Samak claims he was misunderstood, and 
never really meant to force a confrontation with the 
protesters by having police break up the demonstration.  In 
fact, it appears that he could not get his government or the 
security forces to back his plan.  The PAD did not acquit 
itself well, however, when some of its leaders threatened to 
use violence to resist arrest.  The PM, on balance, is 
probably the biggest loser, for making empty threats and for 
escalating tensions that were beginning to subside a little. 
This has led to further rumors that some coalition partners 
may be looking for his replacement, perhaps considering 
Thaksin's brother-in-law, current Education Minister Somchai 
Wongsawat.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Bangkok avoided a confrontation on May 31 after the 
government stepped back from threats to close down the 
week-long anti-government demonstration blocking a major 
thoroughfare.  PM Samak ratcheted up pressure on the 
demonstrators in a Saturday morning TV broadcast, in which he 
said that demonstrators would have to move from the site, or 
the security forces would move them.  The PM's comments, made 
at some length, appeared to be a response to the call by the 
leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) 
demonstration for Samak to resign.  The PM's sabre-rattling 
provoked a predictable reaction from the PAD.  Although some 
PAD leaders apparently supported a more temperate response, 
the overwrought statements by media firebrand Sonthi 
Limthongkul and former Bangkok governor Chamlong Srimeuang 
drowned out more sensible voices.  Sonthi and Chamlong 
reportedly urged the crowd to be ready to "defend 
themselves," vowed to face death if necessary, and generally 
tried to spin their supporters up and raise the tension 
levels.  News media featured pictures of the PAD guards (of 
which there are perhaps 100), armed (rather pathetically) 
with sticks and the occasional baseball bat, wearing 
motorcycle helmets and carrying homemade wooden shields. 
Reports indicated that over 10,000 demonstrators were at the 
site by evening, up from the few hundred that participated in 
the rally during the day. 
 
DEADLINES PASS AS GOVERNMENT RECONSIDERS 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Over the course of the afternoon, a succession of 
"deadlines" came and went.  Police officials confirmed 
publicly that they would break up the demonstration if the 
protesters did not move on their own.  Police told us that 
they were standing by for clear instructions from the PM. 
Military contacts told us that the military was put on alert. 
 Senior military officials told the press that they did not 
believe that there was any role for the military in ending 
the protests, but they would comply with the government's 
orders.  Military officials also told us that they understood 
the PM was considering declaring a state of emergency, and 
that the military opposed such a move, but would obey the 
government.  (Comment: the report on a possible emergency 
declaration seemed to circulate fairly widely, but we have 
only second-hand reports. End Comment.)  Foreign minister 
Noppadon told the press in the afternoon that the government 
would not use force and would obey the law in dealing with 
the demonstrators. 
 
¶4. (C) The Ambassador called MFA Permsec Virasakdi early in 
the afternoon of May 31.  He advised that the use of force by 
the government would lead to violence, and Thailand's 
political and economic image would suffer.  He welcomed the 
FM's more moderate statements and hoped that the FM's message 
would be heard in Cabinet discussions of the issue. The 
Permsec later advised the Ambassador that he had conveyed the 
message to the FM, an assistant to the PM, and to Army 
Commander Anupong.  Embassy also passed a message to PAD 
contacts that PAD's reputation would be permanently tarnished 
if it resorted to violence in response to police actions. 
 
NEVER MIND 
---------- 
 
¶5. (C) Around 7:30 pm on May 31, Interior Minister Chalerm 
told the press, essentially, that it was all a big 
misunderstanding.  He claimed that the government had 
received information that "ill-intentioned people" had 
gathered in a law office in a Bangkok neighborhood --  a 
 
BANGKOK 00001671  002 OF 002 
 
 
veiled reference to some known PAD financiers -- with plans 
to provoke a violent incident at the rally.  The government 
had subsequently managed to thwart these attempts, so there 
was no need to break up the demonstration.  Police stood 
down; demonstrators at the rally gave them flowers.  The PAD 
leaders said they would continue demonstrating, and called on 
the other parties in the governing coalition to withdraw 
their support from the PM.  Rallies appear set to continue in 
that location for some while yet.  Last week, we observed the 
demonstrators very well entrenched, with tents, a soup 
kitchen and loads of supplies.  A few hundred people occupy 
the site by day, with some thousands coming every night to 
hear speeches and music, broadcast throughout the area by 
sound equipment and projected on large screens. 
 
THE DAY AFTER THE NIGHT BEFORE 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) On the margins of events with visiting SecDef Gates on 
June 1, Samak said that he had been "misunderstood."  Looking 
somewhat sheepish, he told the Ambassador that he had only 
meant to say that protesters needed to move to another 
location and stop blocking traffic.  Despite the apparent 
"near miss" on Saturday, Samak appeared fairly relaxed during 
Sunday's meeting and dinner with the SecDef, treating diners 
to a few songs and reporting he had personally checked out 
the food preparations and the band.  During Samak's weekly 
TV/Radio broadcast that morning, he also denied he had issued 
an ultimatum to the protesters. 
 
¶7. (C) Ambassador spoke on Sunday to former PM Thaksin, then 
in China; various reports have credited Thaksin with 
intervening with current officials to ensure there was no 
crack-down on peaceful demonstrators.  Thaksin assured 
Ambassador there would be no violence,and encouraged the USG 
to continue to articulate its strong support for 
democratically elected government. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8. (C) No one really came out well from this latest round of 
guerrilla theater.  The PAD appears to have overplayed its 
hand with its threats to overturn the government.  They can 
steadily turn out crowds somewhere in the range of 5,000 to 
20,000, but recent developments, like the resignation of 
controversial minister Jakrapob, tended to diminish their 
momentum.  They can hold their intersection, but cannot take 
Government House with numbers like that.  Like in 2006, they 
need their adversaries to do something outrageous and 
provocative to tempt demo-weary Bangkok into the streets. 
Samak, for his part, is probably the biggest loser.  Either 
his Saturday TV appearance was complete unplanned bluster run 
amok, or he really intended to crack heads, but couldn't get 
his government, the police or the military to support him. 
The weekend's events have fed rumors that the coalition may 
be looking for a way to ease Samak out, with speculation that 
Thaksin's brother-in-law, Minister of Education Somchai 
Wongsawat, is next in line for the dubious honor of being 
Thaksin's proxy PM. 
JOHN