VZCZCXRO6886
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0066/01 1511049
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301049Z MAY 08
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0223
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0118
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHCAA/GEOLOGICAL SURVEY DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHINGTON DC
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0209
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0228
RUEHC/USAID WASHDC
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0116

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000066 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS AND EB/ESC/IEC 
DEPT FOR DS/IP/EAP 
DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/PI-42 
COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EINV EPET ELAB ENRG PGOV ASEC ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE:  TWO YEARS OF MUD, GEYSERS AND 
PROMISES 
 
REF: SURABAYA 52 (and previous) 
 
SURABAYA 00000066  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
This message is sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Since mud and noxious fumes began surging 
from the ground on May 29, 2006, there has been little progress 
in recovery and rebuilding.  Threatening major highway and rail 
links, the mudflow has had a major economic and social impact, 
but the political consequences remain unclear.  Victims continue 
to press for compensation but have to plead their case in an 
opaque process.  As long as the mud remains contained within its 
dikes, there appears little pressure on the leadership to take 
additional action.  End Summary. 
 
Learning to Live with It 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Between 50,000 - 150,000 cubic meters of hot mud, (the 
daily equivalent of 20-60 Olympic-sized swimming pools) surges 
out of the ground at the epicenter in the regency of Sidoarjo, 
just outside Surabaya.  Although the area of the mudflow nearly 
doubled between December 2006 and March 2007, the mudflow has 
remained within a 2.5 square mile containment area built by 
authorities.  Pumps and a series of pipes move the mud-water 
slurry into the nearby Porong River for its journey out to sea. 
The earthen dikes bordering the containment have been repeatedly 
breached and repaired during the November-May rainy season. 
 
¶3. (SBU) In honor of the mudflow's second anniversary, most 
Indonesian newspapers have run full-page retrospectives and 
analyses of the geology and politics of the disaster.  The idea 
that the mud cannot be stopped has sunk in and one local 
politician appears to be trying to put a positive spin on the 
disaster.  The Regent of Sidoarjo suggested creation of a 
"geological preserve" for tourism purposes.  The CEO of the Jawa 
Pos conglomerate suggested, without irony, that local residents 
turn to this rare geological phenomenon as a source of pride and 
tourist income. 
 
A Sinking Horizon -- Subsidence IncQses 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) For residents whose lives have been buried under tons 
of mud and businesses dependent on threatened transportation 
links, the mudflow remains a source of daily concern.  Land 
beneath remaining inhabited villages near the mudflow has 
subsided significantly over the past year.  According to the 
Sidoarjo Mud Management Agency (BPLS), in one location, the 
ground fell 3 meters in one night. Geysers containing water and 
sometimes flammable gases repeatedly appear in nearby 
communities as yet untouched by the mudflow itself.  Experts at 
the site note these are common signs of increased loading on 
underground aquifers in land-bearing hydrocarbon resources.  A 
continued lack of data on the degree of subsidence and where it 
is occurring makes planning infrastructure relocation 
impossible, according to BPLS. 
 
Human and Economic Costs So Far 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Seventeen villages have been inundated and made 
uninhabitable to date.  More than 35,000 people took refuge when 
the disaster first began and roughly 50,000 people have been 
left homeless.  Thirty local factories were inundated creating 
more than 20,000 unemployed locally.  The mudflow has caused 
nearly USD 4 billion in losses according to local economic 
experts.  East Java's lowered productivity as a result of the 
mudflow has helped lop nearly a full percentage point off 
Indonesia's 2007 GDP according to a local economist. 
 
Compensation Dominates Local Conversation 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The central government has earmarked USD 230 million 
for relocating infrastructure, but has yet to secure land for 
it.  The costs of rebuilding victims' homes within a designated 
impact area falls to the company considered responsible for the 
disaster, PT. Lapindo Brantas.  The company is linked to 
Aburizal Bakrie, Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare, the 
richest man in Indonesia and key campaign donor to President 
 
SURABAYA 00000066  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Yudhoyono.  The process for receiving compensation is opaque; 
victims have to prove their own eligibility and are often 
rejected due to a lack of documentation, according to press 
reports.  Only victims from initially impacted villages will see 
compensation in any case, and the list is growing.  Villages 
left out of the scheme have been promised compensation by a 
still undefined central government plan. 
 
What Mudflow? 
------------- 
 
¶7.  By and large, political candidates have not taken up the 
cause of the mudflow victims.  Despite the proximity of the East 
Java Governor's election in late July, only one candidate for 
vice governor has visited the site.  Unique among political 
parties has been the Indonesian Party for Struggle (PDI-P). 
Ridwan Hisyam, PDI-P Vice Governor candidate pledged to fight 
for the rights of victims while visiting the site May 29. 
Periodic large-scale demonstrations in Porong and surrounding 
villages have continually failed to galvanize provincial or 
national leadership to take concrete action.  Absent a seismic 
or social event such as the inundation of the railroad, it is 
unlikely that authorities will be forced to take additional 
steps. 
MCCLELLAND