VZCZCXRO5676
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0065/01 1500906
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 290906Z MAY 08
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0221
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0116
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0207
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0226
RUEHC/USAID WASHDC
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0114

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000065 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, DRL, INR/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KISL KIRF PTER PINS ASEC ID
SUBJECT: MALUKU: ETHNICITY, RELIGION MIGHT TRIGGER POST-ELECTION 
UNREST 
 
REF: SURABAYA 60 
 
SURABAYA 00000065  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
This message is sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  While Maluku remains calm, recent fighting 
between a handful of villages has underscored the role of 
ethnicity in all aspects of life in Maluku, ConGen Surabaya 
Pol-Econ Officer and Pol-Econ Assistant found during meetings 
with NGOs, media and political parties in Ambon, Maluku on May 
19 and 20.  Observers told us that the July 9 race for governor 
will be close and candidates will be increasingly tempted to 
push sectarian and ethnic buttons in an effort to win.  Flawed 
voter rolls and irregularities could be initial triggers to 
post-election instability.  End Summary 
 
Not Only Religious Ties that Bind 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Native place ethnicity in the Maluku context matters 
as much as religious faith according to many we spoke with 
during a May 19-20 visit to the provincial capital Ambon. 
Villages remain bound by ties of "bela gandung" implying 
familial and linguistic bonds.  During the period of armed 
conflict between Christian and Muslim communities, combatants 
often spared the lives of people of the same ethnic group but 
different religion.  These bonds remain strong despite efforts 
of Muslim hardliners from Java.  Hardliners reportedly insist 
that allegiance to non-Muslim fellow villagers in accordance 
with tradition is un-Islamic and forbidden.  These "bela 
gandung" ties helped check violence, and yet conflict based on 
the same set of ties does occur (reftel).  Whether these 
historic ties will continue to moderate potential Christian and 
Muslim polarization in the coming decades is an open question. 
Representatives from the Islamic Crescent Star Party (PBB) told 
us that Maluku voters voted their ethnicity and downplayed the 
role of religion.  The Islamic Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) 
was also circumspect about ethnicity and religion during our 
discussion.  They stressed the ecumenical nature of their 
strategy in Maluku and elsewhere. 
 
Governor's Race: Christian v. Muslim 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU) While ethnicity and religion don't always coincide in 
Maluku, political races here are still oriented along religious 
lines.  The Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDI-P) and 
PKS are considered Christian and Muslim parties, respectively. 
Red, the color of PDI-P, was also the color of the Christian 
militia during the conflict; likewise white was the color of 
Islamic fighters and the color of PKS.  To journalist Ms. 
Febrianti Imelda Kaihatu of the Ambon-based daily, Suara Maluku, 
the Christian Muslim match-up looks a little too much like a 
replay of Maluku's conflict years.  Members of Maluku PDI-P are 
overwhelmingly Christian (most are in Ambon), while PKS finds 
its base in the Muslim community, nearly 60% of Maluku's 
population.  Recent broadcast text messages to cell phone 
subscribers in Maluku encouraged Muslim solidarity with the PKS 
candidate, Abdullah Tuasikal.  Both front-runners have 
religiously "balanced" tickets common in parts of Indonesia with 
significant Christian populations.  The Vice Governor candidate, 
Said Assagaf is Muslim and his PKS- supported challenger, 
Septinus Hematang is Christian.  However, it is the winning 
governor's religion and the core identity of his party support 
that really matters, according to our sources. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Several sources told us that the incumbent Christian, 
Karel Albert Ralahalu, is the frontrunner in the upcoming 
governor's election.  Ralahalu is supported by Indonesian 
Democratic Party for Struggle (PDI-P) and known as a leader 
close to the people, often traveling to remote West Maluku 
Tenggara to see what is on residents' minds.  Ralahalu's 
government has doled out food assistance and shelter to victims 
in the recent violent clash between Saleman (Muslim) and Horale 
(Christian) villages (reftel).  The speed and largesse of the 
assistance is due to the upcoming election, according to 
Febrianti and other sources in Maluku. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Strongest among the Muslim candidates is the PKS 
candidate, Abdullah Tuasikal, according to Febrianti and 
Christian and Muslim members of Maluku Interfaith Institution 
(LAIM).  Known as a tough campaigner, Tuasikal is currently in 
his second term as Bupati of Central Maluku.  Alleged 
 
SURABAYA 00000065  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
involvement by the incumbent in corruption could help PKS. 
Given the current trend towards a religiously polarized race, a 
close victory could spark calls for a recount and even a new 
election.  LAIM members speculated that a victory by PKS will 
encourage Muslim voters to accept a greater role for Islam in 
politics. 
 
Voter Rolls -- Another Flash Point 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Voter roll irregularities could also be a flashpoint 
for conflict.  The number of registered voters in the Central 
Maluku Regency for the upcoming governor's election is 
significantly smaller than the number registered for Central 
Maluku's Regency election in 2007.  Voter rolls should be nearly 
identical in both contests.  Central Maluku only just completed 
its election and the results have been verified by the election 
commission.  Febrianti was incredulous about why there has been 
no uproar or even mention of this among local politicians.  She 
speculated that the issue might be kept in reserve in the event 
dirt is needed to tarnish PKS's Tuasikal. 
MCCLELLAND