VZCZCXRO9611
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #0549/01 1411530
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 201530Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5827
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 3737
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 0462
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP 0073

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 000549 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EEB/TPP/ABT/ATP (JANET SPECK) 
ROME FOR USFAO 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR ECON EAID ZA
SUBJECT:  ZAMBIA:  CROP FORECASTS FOR 2007/2008 SHOW SUFFICIENT 
SUPPLY 
 
REF:  LUSAKA 479 
 
LUSAKA 00000549  001.4 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (U) Summary.  The Ministry of Agriculture has released its crop 
forecasts for the 2007/2008 agricultural season, as well as Zambia's 
food balance for the marketing season covering the period from May 
1, 2008 to April 30, 2009.  The figures show that on a national 
level estimated production, combined with existing food reserves, 
will be adequate to meet or even exceed Zambian demand.  On a local 
level, however, the GRZ predicts food insecurity in communities that 
experienced adverse weather conditions, such as flooding, and as the 
result of poor internal transport and distribution.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Not a Bumper Harvest, But Adequate 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) According to the Ministry of Agriculture's recently released 
crop forecast, Zambia's agricultural output for the 2007/2008 
harvest will meet national demand.  When Zambia's major staple food 
crops (maize, rice, wheat, sorghum, millet, potatoes, and cassava) 
are measured in maize equivalent, using kilocalories, the combined 
figure shows a modest staple food surplus of 564,547 metric tons. 
GRZ production estimates are listed below.  Commodity demand figures 
include amounts to be purchased by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA). 
Commodity supplies consist of production estimates combined with 
existing FRA stock. 
 
                         GRZ Estimates 
                  (in thousands of metric tons) 
 
Staple Crops        2007/2008   2006/2007 
------------        ---------   --------- 
Maize Production      1,212        1,366 
Maize Supply          1,602        1,799 
Maize Requirements    1,459        1,549 
Maize Surplus           143          250 
 
Cassava Production    1,161        1,186 
Cassava Supply        1,163 
Cassava Requirements    735 
Cassava Surplus         428          463 
 
Rice Production          24           18 
Rice Supply              27 
Rice Demand              37 
Rice Deficit             10 
 
Wheat Production        180          185 
Wheat Supply            206 
Wheat Demand            195 
Wheat Surplus            11 
 
 
Cash Crops          2007/2008   2006/2007 
------------        ---------   --------- 
Sorghum                  10           13 
Soy Beans                57           55 
Sunflower                13            9 
Groundnuts               71           55 
Sweet Potatoes          107           76 
Irish Potatoes           10           23 
Cotton                  100           87 
Burley Tobacco            8            5 
Virginia Tobacco         13           21 
 
¶3. (U) The GRZ announced that Zambia will record a cassava surplus 
for the tenth year in a row.  Cassava output has generally not been 
affected by stressful years when other staple foods are in deficit. 
The figures reflect production declines in most staple products, 
including maize, cassava, wheat, and sorghum.  Anticipated increased 
output in groundnuts, sweet potatoes, and sunflower reflects some 
crop diversification. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Poor Productivity/Weather Hinder Growth 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Regionally, Luapula, Eastern, Northern, and Copperbelt 
provinces increased their maize production levels by an estimated 
24, 19, 24, and 15 percent respectively.  The remaining five 
provinces, Southern, Lusaka, Central, Northwestern, and Western, 
experienced sharp declines (by 52, 51, 19, 14, and 13 percent 
respectively).  The GRZ attributes lower maize productivity to water 
logging and flooding, inadequate access to agricultural inputs and 
 
LUSAKA 00000549  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
extension services, and below normal rainfall in some parts of the 
country.  Increased planting helped offset lower yields: 
 
                     Maize Productivity 
              (in metric tons/hectare, mt/ha) 
 
                   2007/2008     2006/2007 
                   ---------     --------- 
  Area Planted     928,224 ha    872,812 ha 
  Area Harvested   551,359 ha    586,503 ha 
  Yield Rate       1.31 mt/ha    1.57 mt/ha 
 
¶5. (U) Yield rates of small and medium size farms (1.13 mt/ha) lag 
far behind those of large scale farms (4.51 mt/ha), which have 
access to irrigation and consequently are less affected by inclement 
weather conditions.  Large scale farmers, utilizing higher 
quantities of fertilizer per hectare and more efficient crop 
management, managed to harvest 93 percent of their planted areas, 
compared to 58 percent for small and medium scale farmers. 
Consequently, large scale farmers who accounted for 18 percent of 
annual maize production in the 2007/2008 harvest, are expected to 
contribute to 33 percent of total maize sales during the 2008/2009 
marketing season. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Post considers the GRZ production forecasts to be fairly 
reliable.  Its supply estimates, however, may be overly optimistic. 
According to one assessment, approximately a third of FRA stock has 
spoiled, due to poor storage conditions and technology.  If so, 
total supply may fall below levels of national demand, and Zambia 
may have to import the deficit or may seek increased humanitarian 
assistance, especially in the current climate. 
 
¶7. (U) Although the national figures suggest overall food 
self-sufficiency, Zambia's incapacity to distribute aid to regions 
of the country affected by poor weather conditions means that some 
rural communities will once more face serious food shortages. 
Subsistence farmers--even in provinces that recorded increased 
production--continue to suffer from poverty and hunger.  These 
farmers generally do not have access to fertilizer, high-yield 
seeds, irrigation equipment, and agricultural services and lack 
storage technology, efficient farming techniques, and market 
access. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The GRZ's existing agricultural budget consists primarily 
of providing (usually late) limited quantities of subsidized 
fertilizer and purchasing large stocks of maize for the FRA at 
non-market prices.  Its export controls distort market prices and 
discourage agricultural investment.  Until the GRZ develops and 
implements an agricultural policy that goes beyond guaranteed 
prices, trade barriers, and fertilizer support, which generally is 
diverted to commercial farmers who need government help least, 
Zambia will be unlikely to feed its people.  Moreover, as long as 
export controls exist, commercial farmers will be unable to reap the 
benefits of higher global food prices. 
 
MARTINEZ