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C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000322 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2018 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MARR PINS HN
SUBJECT: (C) FORMER MINISTER OF SECURITY OSCAR ALVAREZ TO 
BE PEPE LOBO'S VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Charles A. Ford, Reasons 1.4 (b & d) 
 
¶1. (C) On April 7 the Ambassador met with Oscar Alvarez, the 
enormously popular former Minister of Security under 
President Ricardo Maduro.  Alvarez told the Ambassador that 
Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo had asked him to be his running mate, 
and he had accepted, effectively stopping rumors that former 
Central Bank President Maria Elena Mondragon would round out 
Lobo's ticket.  Alvarez said Lobo would be creating three 
"hubs" of issues if elected -- Security, Economic and Social 
-- and that the Vice President would be in charge of 
security.  Alvarez predicted President of Congress Roberto 
Micheletti would easily win the Liberal Party primary, and 
warned that President Manuel Zelaya may try to create a 
crisis within the National Register of Persons (RNP) a few 
months before the general elections in order to extend his 
mandate past 2009.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (C) on April 7, Ambassador met with former Minister of 
Security Oscar Alvarez, to discuss the general political 
atmosphere.  Alvarez still remains enormously popular, and 
could play a key role in the upcoming presidential elections. 
 Alvarez told us that Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo had asked him to 
be his vice presidential running mate, which he accepted.  He 
is currently serving as vice-consul at the Honduran consulate 
in Houston, where he re-located following the National Party 
defeat in the 2005 elections, but stated he will be returning 
to Honduras in July to concentrate on the campaign.  Based on 
the decisive actions he took against criminals as Minister, 
Alvarez still fears for his family's safety and said he will 
leave his wife and youngest child in the United States so 
that his son can finish high school. 
 
Lobo's Vision 
-------------- 
¶3. (C) Alvarez said that the Maduro administration had done 
such a good job on curbing crime that when Lobo began his 
campaign in 2004, security was no longer the "hot" issue of 
the day.  Unfortunately, Lobo did not realize this in time 
and spent too much time and energy on security issues during 
the campaign.  Following four years of a Zelaya 
administration, however, security has once again risen to be 
one of the citizenry's biggest concerns, so Alvarez told us 
that if elected, Lobo would ceate a type of "Department of 
Homeland Security"under the Vice President that would 
include the Mnistries of Security, Defense, Governance and 
Jutice, and the Public Ministry.  Alvarez said Lobo ould 
also task key trusted advisors to take on te cross-cutting 
issues of economics and social isues, basically creating 
three "hubs" the governmnt would address.  Alvarez said Lobo 
was worriedthe USG would view his attention to social issues 
as cause for concern, but the Ambassador reassure him that 
the USG would view attention to povert alleviation and 
investing in people positively a long as the government 
stayed within the generaly accepted rules of democratic 
behavior and didnot take any rash measures such as violating 
private property rights or sound macroeconomics principles. 
 
Observations on the Liberal Party and Zelaya 
---------------------------------------- 
¶4. (C) Alvarez said that President of Congress Roberto 
Micheletti will win the Liberal Party primary because he 
controls the party apparatus, which controls the individual 
voting tables around the country.  He said that current vice 
president Elvin Santos was tricked into declaring his 
candidacy by President Manual Zelaya, and will be sacrificed 
by Zelaya in order to get Micheletti to give him key 
positions on the next Supreme Court and the next Congress. 
Alvarez was pleased, however, that Santos has thrown his hat 
in the ring for president, as he said that it could pave the 
way for him to run in the future, if he so chooses.  Alvarez 
predicted that Zelaya would create a crisis, most likely in 
the National Registry of Persons (RNP), in the last months of 
his administration in an attempt to remain in power.  Alvarez 
was worried that Zelaya might try to manipulate the good 
relations he has built up with the armed forces by giving 
soldiers three salary raises in the past two years in order 
to carry out his nefarious plan, but was pleased when the 
Ambassador related his conversations with Chief of Defense 
Romeo Vasquez Velasquez on this topic.  (Note: Vasquez has 
 
told the Ambassador repeatedly he would support the 
constitution in the face of a constitutional crisis.  End 
note.) 
 
¶5. (C) Alvarez, a former employee at the embassy, worked very 
closely with the USG as Minister of Security.  Known is the 
press as the "show man," he included dozens of journalists on 
his ministry's payroll.  Human rights activists have 
questioned his record, noting that "suicides" and fires 
occurred regularly in the prisons during his mandate.  Former 
Foreign Minister Milton Jimenez publicly criticized the 
proposed naming of Alvarez to a diplomatic posting, but was 
overruled by President Zelaya, perhaps suggesting Alvarez' 
knowledge of Zelaya's hidden past. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶6. (C) Alvarez is a popular figure who will bring prestige to 
the Lobo ticket.  We had heard Lobo would be asking former 
Central Bank President under Maduro, Maria Elena Mondragon, 
to be his vice presidential running mate, but it looks like 
now she will have to settle for being in charge of the 
"Economic hub" of Lobo's administration if he is elected. 
Lobo is slowly amassing a qualified and intelligent team, and 
his candidacy seems almost completely assured.  Micheletti, 
on the other side, is also slowly cementing his candidacy by 
bringing in new people, including a large number of mayors 
that had originally sided with Santos, to his team.  In 
conjunction ith his extensive funds obtained through his 
conrol of congress, Micheletti's team will put up a god 
fight against Lobo.  At this point, the race i still too 
close to call.  End comment. 
Ford