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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SURABAYA 000051 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y - Paragraphs 8 and 9 garbled in transm 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, DRL, DRL/AWH, EAP/PD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM SOCI KISL ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA -- SOME LISTEN TO ALLAH, SOME TO THE POLLS; 
POLITICS IN EAST JAVA'S LARGEST MUSLIM ORGANIZATION 
 
REF: JAKARTA 488 
 
SURABAYA 00000051  001.4 OF 003 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  What role will the world's largest Muslim 
organization play in the run up to Indonesia's 2009 Presidential 
election?  The East Java governor's race could provide a preview 
of the declining role of large Muslim organizations like 
Nadhlatul Ulama (NU), with some 40 million members nationally. 
Several current and former high-level NU cadres have declared 
their candidacy for vice governor with their campaigns claiming 
at least notional NU support.  Observers tell us that the 
refusal of the Chair of East Java NU to either stop his campaign 
or resign from NU suggests that he sees little risk in 
alienating his membership.  Moreover, the party created to bind 
the apolitical NU membership into a cohesive political force, 
the National Awakening Party (PKB) is in total disarray (many 
would argue that the last leadership battle in PKB was equally 
contentious.)  Whether the declining impact of organizations 
like NU on political races will create opportunities for a 
growing Muslim political party like the Prosperous Justice Party 
(PKS) remains to be seen.  End Summary 
 
Does NU Matter? 
--------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U)  NU was founded in 1926 in Surabaya by Kiai Hasyim 
Asy'ari -- grandfather of Abdurahman Wahid or Gus Dur, who would 
later become the national chairman of NU and President of 
Indonesia.  Since its establishment in 1952, NU struggled to 
preserve its original character as a religious and social 
organization.  However, its leaders have been invariably tempted 
to enter political life.  Under Sukarno, NU became one of the 
biggest political parties in Indonesia by 1955.  NU's political 
activities declined subsequently under Suharto, and in 1973 NU 
politicians were forced to join a single amalgam of Islamic 
parties, the United Development Party (PPP).  Representing the 
NU heartland, East Java NU announced a commitment to return to 
its original status as a religious and social organization (and 
to stay out of politics) at its 1984 Congress.  Having come full 
circle, NU officially maintains a distance from electoral 
politics, but allows its membership to join parties as 
individuals. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Today, NU is distinguished by the religious and 
socio-economic profile of its membership.  Its membership is 
largely drawn from rural areas and "kampung" or working-class, 
urban neighborhoods.  With no membership cards, no dues and 
self-financed meetings, for those who consider themselves 
members, NU is tantamount to the practice of Islam itself.  NU 
accepts pre-Islamic beliefs and practices, mixed with Islamic 
rituals.  Members are guided in their religious practice by the 
Kiai, local religious leaders and respected figures, who are 
consulted concerning a wide range of religious and social 
matters. 
 
¶4. (SBU) When Suharto stepped down, Gus Dur, as the chairman of 
National NU, established the National Awakening Party (PKB). 
PKB's appeal was based on being the true political heir to NU, 
according to Prof. Aribowo, the Dean of Humanities and Social 
Sciences at Airlangga University in Surabaya.  From its 
inception, Gus Dur intended the PKB to give voice to the 
political aspirations of NU members.  In 1998, the year Gus Dur 
became President, PKB gave voice to NU adherents and garnered 
their full support.  Since then, NU politicians and voters have 
routinely scattered their support among various political 
 
SURABAYA 00000051  002.4 OF 003 
 
 
parties.  Recent squabbling over the leadership of PKB itself 
demonstrates the difficultly of party building among this 
constituency (reftel).  The multiple party allegiances of East 
Java gubernatorial candidates, who also claim to be NU 
favorites, further highlights this disunity. 
 
A Study in Miscalculation, Ali Maschan Moesa 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU)  If there was a blurred line between political 
participation and NU bylaws, it just got a lot clearer for Ali 
Maschan Moesa, the current chairman of East Java NU.  Ali 
Maschan has taken a hit in the press for "listening to the 
polls, instead of Allah" and trying to parlay his East Java NU 
leadership into a successful candidacy for East Java Vice 
Governor.  According to the East Java NU hierarchy, Ali Maschan 
must choose between NU leadership and the election.  But he 
wants it both ways.  His acceptance of a spot on the ticket with 
current Vice Governor and East Java Golkar Chairman Soenarjo and 
refusal to relinquish his chairmanship provoked the ire of East 
Java NU's rule-making clerics, the Syuriah Council.  Since Ali 
Maschan had signed a contract foreswearing political candidacy, 
East Java's NU Council found Ali Maschan Moesa in breach of 
contract. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Ali Maschan maintains he is still nominally chairman 
and will return after a leave of absence, or quit altogether if 
he wins.  In the meantime, the Council has replaced Ali Maschan 
with NU cleric Muttawakil Allah, leader of an Islamic boarding 
school in Probbolingo, East Java.  Prof. Aribowo, a personal 
acquaintance of Ali Maschan Moesa, told the Consulate that the 
dispute has deeply wounded Ali Maschan politically.  By showing 
a lack of respect for the Council's decision, Ali Maschan failed 
to finesse East Java NU and turned them against him.  In short, 
while NU support cannot be counted on to help a candidate, NU 
antipathy can be counted on to hurt his chances. 
 
National NU Carpetbaggers in East Java 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶7. (SBU) While Ali Maschan has been forced to resign, candidates 
from National NU's top echelon, some also former cabinet 
ministers, have no such restrictions.  To date, two pairs of 
candidates have tried to lay claim to NU votes based on their 
current national NU leadership positions.  East Java Provincial 
Secretary Soekarwo is teamed with Syaifullah Yusuf (aka Gus 
 
SIPDIS 
Ipul).  Syaifullah is head of National NU's Youth Organization, 
is former State Minister for Development in Undeveloped Regions, 
(he is also Gus Dur's nephew and was forced to flee PKB after a 
falling out with Gus Dur).  Their ticket is supported by the 
Democratic Party (PD) and National Mandate Party (PAN).Qhofifah, head of the Women's Division of National NU and former 
Minister of Women's Empowerment, is teamed with Mujiono, former 
Chief of Staff of East Java's Military Command.  They are 
supported by a coalition of 12 smaller parties.  Khofifah took a 
leave of absence from NU when announcing her candidacy.  Another 
East Java gubernatorial candidate promises to fragment notional 
NU votes further still.  Running with the endorsement of Gus Dur 
and the PKB party, at least for now, Mojokerto Regent Achmady 
has told local media that NU votes will go to his camp because 
the "pro Gus Dur NU community will definitely back his 
candidacy."  Achmady is off to a dismal start as PKB infighting 
has only added to his problems locating a suitable and willing 
 
SURABAYA 00000051  003.4 OF 003 
 
 
running mate, according to local media.  If he fails to name a 
vice governor candidate by April 27, he will be lose his PKB 
endorsement. 
 
Politics Tempt the Weak and Weaken NU 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Haryadi, a professor and political observer at 
Surabaya's Airlangga University, told the Consulate that even if 
NU's membership were cohesive, the number of top echelon NU 
cadres running for office have hopelessly split potential NU 
support.  This has further fragmented NU and complicated efforts 
by political parties and their candidates to reach out to these 
Muslim 'values voters' during the election.  Haryadi suggested 
that if NU were to seek political unity it could become a 
formidable party machine, but concludes that it has not and is 
unlikely to do so. Haryadi speculated that many NU elite are 
running in the governor's election because they can't resist 
trying to convert their credentials into the power and wealth 
promised by elective office. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Taufikurahman Saleh, an NU cadre and national 
parliamentarian, told the Consulate that other candidates would 
benefit from NU's internal divisions and in the end NU would get 
nothing from the race. Echoing this, Krisnugroho, a lecturer in 
political science at Airlangga University, told local media that 
confusion among NU voters would again lead them to elect the 
current leading "non-NU" candidates Sucipto (Deputy Chair of the 
Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Ridwan Hisyam 
(Deputy Speaker of the East Java Parliament and former Chair of 
East Java Golkar).  This result would mirror the 2004 
presidential election when NU votes were split between competing 
NU-linked candidates.  Voters rejected vice presidential 
candidates Kiai Hasyim Muzadi, National Chairman of NU and 
Megawati's running mate and Kiai Sholahudin Wahid, Gus Dur's 
younger brother, and General Wiranto's running mate. President 
Yudhoyono and Yusuf Kalla, with no NU pedigree, garnered 60% of 
the total vote in East Java. 
MCCLELLAND