VZCZCXRO7743
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHSH #0056/01 1160603
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 250603Z APR 08
FM AMCONSUL SHENYANG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8398
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY 0109
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY 0805

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHENYANG 000056 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO DEPT OF AGRICULTURE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2018 
TAGS: CH EAGR ECON ETRD PGOV
SUBJECT: REPORTS OF MAJOR DROUGHT IN CHINA'S NORTHEAST ARE 
ALL WET 
 
REF: SHENYANG 00252 
 
Classified By: Consul General Stephen Wickman E.O. 12958: B and D 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary.  Over the past six weeks, China's Xinhua 
News Agency has published numerous reports of serious drought 
in Northeast China, many of which were picked up by western 
wire services.  Econoff,s queries about the drought during a 
series of trips around the region, however, met with 
responses that ranged from muted denial to outright laughter. 
 Our personal observations throughout the region likewise 
revealed no shortage of surface water, with rivers and 
reservoirs nearly full.  The reasons behind Xinhua's 
reporting remain unclear, but the reports do not appear to be 
related to any real shortage of rainfall or surface water in 
this district.  End Summary 
 
---------------------- 
The Sky Is Not Falling 
---------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) In early March, Xinhua began a steady drumbeat of 
reports underscoring Northeast China's lack of rainfall 
during 2008, initially describing it as "the worst drought in 
five years" and, in subsequent reports, "the worst in fifty 
years."  Cursory observation however, did not reveal any 
unusual weather pattern.  Northeast China typically 
experiences very little rainfall in the first quarter of each 
calendar year.  Xinhua's reports, which cite China's National 
Meteorological Agency as a source and indicate rainfall well 
below normal, conflict with U.S. meteorological observations 
that put rainfall at or above normal for the entire region. 
 
¶3. (C) In an attempt to locate possible pockets of drought, 
Econoff traveled extensively throughout Northeast China, 
speaking with agricultural officials to determine the 
potential impact of the drought on Northeast China's grain 
production.  At every stop, spring planting was proceeding on 
a normal schedule.  Only in Jinzhou was any shortage of 
surface water reported, although the cause of the problem was 
a mystery.  The Chief of the local Agriculture Bureau said 
there had been plenty of rain and the river should have water 
in it, but for some reason the flow had been stopped 
upstream.  He explained that, normally, local farmers would 
be drawing water from the river, but now they will have to 
rely on wells until water is released. 
 
----------------------- 
Water, Water Everywhere 
----------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) The story in Chaoyang ) abutting Inner Mongolia -- 
was much different.  The most recent reports from Xinhua 
indicated severe drought in the area, with many people 
lacking water for cooking and drinking.  However, officials 
from Chaoyang's Water Bureau responded with laughter when 
asked about the drought's impact and their plans for dealing 
with it.  They said that although some local residents are 
being assisted in putting in new wells, water is readily 
available and they are not suffering from any drought. 
 
¶5. (C) On 23 April, China's central government released a 
warning stating that fire risk was extremely high in 
Northeast China due to persistent drought.  Visits to 
northern Jilin Province again painted another very different 
picture.  Both the Tumen and Songhua rivers were nearly bank 
full, and the associated reservoirs were above 80 percent of 
capacity.  During a visit to Songhua Lake, a large reservoir 
and hydroelectric facility in Jilin City, local officials 
pointed out that turbines were in full operation and all six 
flood gates were partially open.  He said that, "with current 
water levels, if we opened the gates fully, downtown Harbin 
would flood in a matter of hours." 
 
¶6. (C) Similarly, Agriculture officials in the ethnic Korean 
enclave of Yanji expressed surprise at the notion of a 
drought.  While noting that Yanbian Prefecture is not a major 
agricultural region, they described their water supplies as 
more than adequate.  Yanji agriculture officials added that 
the Tumen River was at normal levels for mid-March and local 
farmers had no complaints about water supplies. 
 
------------------- 
Divining the Source 
------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) It is unclear what the motivation might be for 
 
SHENYANG 00000056  002 OF 002 
 
 
persistent reports of drought in Northeast China, but it does 
not appear to be related to a lack of rainfall.  One 
possibility is that Beijing is trying to lower expectations 
for this year's harvest in order to explain shortages in the 
domestic market.  As reported reftel, Beijing recently 
directed shipments of corn from government stores in 
Northeast China to China's South and substantially overstated 
harvest amounts last year and had to release grain from 
government stores to maintain price stability during the 
Spring Festival.  Officials in Jilin, moreover, told Econoff 
they had no intention of adhering to Beijing's admonishment 
to refrain from using food for ethanol production this year, 
and during this latest trip Jilin Development Zone officials 
said they expect to convert Jilin's entire 2008 corn crop to 
ethanol at a newly opening facility in their zone.  All of 
this means that less grain is available to protect China's 
domestic market from inflationary pressures. 
 
WICKMAN