VZCZCXRO8203
RR RUEHRG
DE RUEHRI #0091/01 1061916
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151916Z APR 08
FM AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4437
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0779
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 5143
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 3421
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RHEBAAA/USDOE WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 RIO DE JANEIRO 000091 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC AND GREG MANUEL 
EB/ESC JAMES EIGHMIE 
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D 
USDOE FOR CAROLYN GAY AND RHEA DAVIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG EPET EIND EINV BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL'S CHIEF PETROLEUM REGULATOR INADVERTANTLY CONFIRMS 
RUMORS OF MEGA OIL FIELD IN SANTOS BASIN 
 
REF: A) RIO DE JANEIRO 35, B) 07 SAO PAULO 0953 
 
Sensitive but unclassified, please protect accordingly. 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Brazil National Petroleum Agency (ANP) Director 
Haroldo Lima is under fire and, some speculate, may lose his job for 
confirming what petroleum industry insiders have believed for some 
time -- that, at a depth of around 4000 meters in the Santos Basin 
off the coast of Sao Paulo, Brazil potentially has a mega oil field 
estimated to contain between 30-40 billion barrels of oil.  If these 
reserves are confirmed, Brazil could jump into the top 10 oil 
countries by reserves, surpassing nations such as Nigeria and Libya. 
 Though the possibilities have generated a great deal of excitement, 
industry observers caution that the technological challenges 
involved are extensive and expensive to overcome, meaning that any 
developments will, at the very least, be slow in coming.  In light 
of the potential gains, there are signs that GOB is looking for ways 
to maximize the government share of these historic finds and to 
allow Petrobras to position itself to be the leading developer in 
the new fields.    End Summary. 
Making News and Moving the Markets 
---------------------------------- 
¶2.  (U) Speaking as part of a seminar panel on April 14, ANP 
Director Haroldo Lima announced that Brazilian state oil company 
Petrobras is sitting on the world's biggest oil discovery in 30 
years.   ANP quickly released a statement distancing itself from 
Lima's remarks, saying that he had been speaking outside of his 
official capacity.  Brazilian semi-public state oil company 
Petrobras declined to confirm the estimate, saying only that studies 
on the find are still underway.  Still, shares of Petrobras closed 
up 6 percent on the day. 
¶3.  (U) According to Lima, Petrobras, which operates the BM-S-9 
block ("Carioca"), has a significant stake in a massive sub-salt 
structure that could contain more than 33 billion barrels of oil 
equivalent and is estimated to be five times the size of the 
recently announced, large Tupi discovery (5-8 billion barrels)(ref 
B).  He went on to comment that Carioca has the potential to be the 
third biggest active field in the world.  Brazil's Securities and 
Exchange Commission harshly criticized Lima, saying that he should 
have known the effect his comments would have on the stock market. 
In the near-term, ANP and Lima will focus their energies on damage 
control but Lima could very well be fired over this slip-up within 
the next few days. 
¶4. (U) Lima, 67, is an electrical engineer from the state of Bahia. 
Before being named Director of ANP in 2005, Lima was a five-term 
federal deputy in the Brazilian Congress.  He is a member of 
Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB), which supports the Lula 
Administration.  Though Lima did not come to ANP with a strong 
background in petroleum, industry generally gives a positive 
assessment of his performance as Director.  Under Lima, ANP has held 
four bidding rounds for oil and natural gas exploration and 
production blocks.  Lima understands that regular and transparent 
bidding rounds are fundamental to maintaining international 
investment in the petroleum and gas industry.  In a recent interview 
in ISTOE Magazine, Lima called for the creation of a 100% 
state-owned company to receive all the oil extracted from Brazil and 
partners would receive monetary payments. 
 
How Much Oil Are We Talking About? 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) For years, industry insiders have conjectured that there 
might be a lot more oil at deeper geological intervals than those 
where Petrobras, Shell and Devon produce today in Brazil.  Talk of 
"another Campos Basin below the Campos Basin" and large potential in 
Santos Basin has been circulating through the oil community for a 
while.  In 2005, Petrobras began drilling the Parati well in the 
Santos Basin, the first well to reach hydrocarbon-bearing reservoirs 
below a 2 mile-thick layer of salt.  The well was the most expensive 
ever in the country, but it was key as it confirmed that there was 
indeed oil below the salt that might be put into production.  Since 
then, Petrobras drilled three other wells in the area (along with 
four others in different areas off of Brazil's coast) and all found 
relatively light oil (28-30 API) below the salt.  The Tupi 
announcement in November 2007 was the crowning event of a long 
process. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) However, industry insiders never considered Tupi as the 
largest structure in the region.  With the latest technology 
available, subsurface maps of what the area below the salt layer 
might look like have indicated that it is only the smaller of two 
relatively large "hills" under the salt.  If oil bearing, the larger 
 
RIO DE JAN 00000091  002 OF 003 
 
 
structure might hold a quantity of oil estimated to be between 30-40 
billion barrels.  Located to the south of Tupi, the larger structure 
has yet to be given a public name but is being referred to by the 
industry as "Sugarloaf." 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Petrobras tested one well in the Sugarloaf structure last 
year in the BM-S-9 block (Carioca) and is still drilling another. 
It operates the block in partnership with BG Group (30%) and Repsol 
(25%).  In an official release, Petrobras stated that the second 
well has not yet reached the sub-salt level.  In the absence of more 
conclusive data on the block's potential, Petrobras is remaining 
tight-lipped.  Through its work in Brazil and in Mexico's deep-water 
reserves, Petrobras has developed expertise and a reputation as a 
leader in cutting edge deepwater drilling technology. 
 
¶8. (SBU) While Petrobras is getting the majority of the press play 
right now, it should be noted that other companies are also well 
positioned should a discovery at Sugarloaf be confirmed.  The 
BM-S-22 block, just south of Petrobras' Carioca block, is thought to 
be the apex of the structure and is operated by Exxon (40%) in 
partnership with Hess (40%) and Petrobras (20%).  Galp, BG, and 
Shell also have minority stakes in neighboring blocks.  Exxon Brazil 
President John Knapp told Mission Brazil officers that the industry 
as a whole is extremely excited about pre-salt opportunities in 
Brazil, but cautioned that the government and press euphoria does 
not sufficiently take into account the serious technological and 
financial challenges of drilling so deep. Knapp also expressed some 
concern that, in this euphoria, the GOB may be tempted to change its 
current concession model which industry views as fair, transparent, 
and effective in order to allow the GOB and Petrobras to take 
maximum advantage of the finds, possibly at the expense of the 
international oil community. 
 
Next Steps for the Government of Brazil 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) As previously reported (Ref A), the Government of Brazil 
withdrew 41 prime blocks in the Santos Basin from auction shortly 
after the Tupi announcement in November 2007.  Pending a 
determination of how to best develop the Santos Basin pre-salt 
reserves and capture the most revenue, no further bidding will take 
place.  This has international industry concerned since, in the 
absence of new exploration opportunities, they could be forced to 
leave Brazil.  ANP has formed a task force and contracted 
international consulting firm Wood MacKenzie to study how other 
countries handle such contracts.  ANP has also expressed interest in 
sending a delegation to the U.S. to study how the USG handles 
contracts in the Gulf of Mexico and in Alaska. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) While Petrobras CEO Sergio Gabrielli has made public 
comments that Brazil should look into amending its Petroleum Law, 
industry insiders and academic experts agree that the most likely 
outcome is for Brazil to maintain its current concessions 
arrangement and increase the government's take, or "special 
participation rate" (maybe to as high as 80 percent).  There is 
likely not enough support within the Congress to support such a new 
Petroleum Law, and little confidence in Congress' ability to come up 
with a palatable new framework.  The benefit of increasing the 
special participation rate is that it can be achieved by 
Presidential Decree. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Petrobras would also likely oppose any change towards a 
production sharing or service contract regime.  It appears as though 
Gabrielli's strategy is to stall the auction process for a few years 
so that Petrobras can be better positioned, financially, to bid 
competitively on the prime blocks.  As it is, Petrobras is 
confronting serious resource constraints on Tupi, and getting 
Sugarloaf into production may be beyond its current capabilities. 
There is a worldwide shortage of geologists, engineers and 
equipment, and the depth of these discoveries (2000 plus meters of 
water and up to two miles of salt) would require the most advanced 
(and most expensive) drilling technology on the market.  (Note: 
There are only a few drills capable of drilling at such depths.  Per 
ref B, two of these have been reserved to begin work at Tupi in 
¶2009.  End Note.) 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Supported by key players within the Brazilian government, 
such as Presidential Chief of Staff and Chairman of Petrobras' Board 
of Directors Dilma Rousseff, Petrobras is shifting resources to 
develop Tupi as quickly as possible.  The government views the new 
sub-salt discoveries as a good source of future political leverage, 
 
RIO DE JAN 00000091  003 OF 003 
 
 
and is about to embark on a US$50 million publicity campaign to 
spread the news about Brazil's apparent new oil riches.  If Dilma 
Rousseff indeed runs for the presidency in 2010, it is possible that 
these oil and gas developments combined with the government's 
large-scale planned infrastructure projects could boost her profile 
as a candidate. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶13.  (SBU) The potential discovery of additional oil deposits in the 
Santos Basin is certainly good news for Brazil.  Unfortunately, the 
bad news is that there is insufficient drilling equipment to bring 
these resources on line quickly and there remain significant 
technological hurdles to drilling in such extreme conditions.  If 
the best estimates have the Tupi field producing no sooner than 2013 
even with the full support of Petrobras and the rest of the GOB, 
developing "Sugarloaf" may indeed take some time.  Undoubtedly, 
however, these discoveries have the potential to make Brazil a 
player in international energy markets and may have an impact on 
Venezuela's role for the region as well.  The GOB's decisions on how 
to develop the area will have further impact on U.S. companies' 
ability to participate in these exciting new finds.  End Comment. 
 
¶12. (U) This message was cleared/coordinated with Embassy Brasilia. 
 
MARTINEZ