VZCZCXRO5016
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPOD #0119/01 0981115
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O P 071115Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0741
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0819

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000119 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:  UNOFFICIAL  RESULTS SHOW 
VUJANOVIC WINNING SECOND TERM 
 
REF: PODGORICA 116 AND PREVIOUS 
 
PODGORICA 00000119  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Unofficial results have incumbent President 
Vujanovic of the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) 
winning more than 50 percent of the vote April 6 in Montenegro's 
first post-independence presidential election.  Serbian People's 
Party (SNS) candidate Andrija Mandic came in a distant second, 
with around 20 percent of the vote.  While the State Election 
Commission will not announce official results until later today 
or tomorrow, Vujanovic has declared victory and two of his three 
opponents have conceded (the third, Mandic, is not disputing the 
results).  No major irregularities were reported on election 
day.  Turnout was high (about 68%), and candidates ran generally 
positive and substantive campaigns.  Because Vujanovic appears 
to have taken over 50% of the vote in the first round, no second 
round will be needed if these results hold. END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
It's Unofficial...Vujanovic Wins Landslide Victory 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) The NGO Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) parallel 
vote tabulation -- with 100 percent of 200 (out of 1,141 in 
Montenegro) participating polling stations reporting -- shows 
Vujanovic with 51.4 percent and Mandic with 20.4 percent. 
Nebojsa Medojevic of the centrist Movement for Change (PzP) came 
in third with 15.7 percent, and Srdjan Milic of the left-center 
Socialist People's Party (SNP) received 12.6 percent.  CDT 
conducted its parallel vote tabulation and fielded approximately 
500 election monitors with an NED grant. 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) The NGO Center for Monitoring (CEMI) also conducted a 
parallel vote tabulation based on results from 240 polling 
stations.  With 97.9 percent of participating stations 
reporting, Vujanovic has 52.2 percent of the vote, Mandic 19.3 
percent, Medojevic 17.4 percent, and Milic 11.2 percent. 
 
 
 
¶4. (U) Both CDT and CEMI began releasing results after polls 
closed at 21:00 local time.  Shortly after 22:30, President 
Vujanovic and fellow DPS member and Prime Minister Djukanovic 
declared victory to a crowd of supporters outside the Government 
Building in Podgorica.  (Vujanovic, who called his win a "joint 
victory," said he would "be President for all citizens of 
Montenegro; we'll work together on Montenegro's European road, 
so that Montenegro belongs to the European Union.")  DPS 
faithful set off fireworks around the city, and downtown 
Podgorica quickly became hazardous as zigzagging drivers honked 
horns and passengers shouted and waved Montenegrin flags. 
 
 
 
¶5. (U) The State Election Commission will not release official 
results until either late today or tomorrow (by law, they have 
36 hours following close of polls), and CDT told us the margin 
of error for Vujanovic's victory was 2.1 percent.  However, the 
NGO's parallel vote tabulations have proven accurate in previous 
elections.  The DPS also reportedly did its own vote tabulations 
based on reports from polling commission members and observers 
throughout the country.  Medojevic and Milic have publicly 
conceded defeat; Mandic said he would wait until his party 
headquarters had verified the preliminary results. 
 
 
 
High Turnout 
 
------------ 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) The parallel vote tabulations estimated turnout at about 
68 percent.  According to CDT, turnout was 71.1 percent in the 
center of the country, 69.9 percent in the north, and 63.4 in 
the south.  Turnout was slightly below the 2006 parliamentary 
election (when it was 71 percent), but well above the last 
presidential election in 2003, when it was only 48 percent. 
 
 
 
Few Violations Reported Election Day 
 
------------------------------------ 
 
 
 
PODGORICA 00000119  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Observers had not expected major irregularities on 
election day, and none were reported.  U.S. Embassy observers 
noted some minor infractions, but nothing that might have 
compromised the integrity of the vote.  Opposition candidates 
were well represented on polling commissions, and the State 
Election Commission registered more than 800 domestic and 
international observers (not counting candidate observers).  The 
OSCE/ODIHR election observation mission will announce its 
assessment of the campaign and vote later this afternoon 
(septel). 
 
 
 
Conduct of Campaign 
 
------------------- 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) While no major problems were reported on the day of the 
vote, several deficiencies marked the campaign.  In particular, 
we heard complaints about incomplete and confusing electoral 
legislation, allegations of abuse of state resources by 
Vujanovic, and a slight bias in state media for Vujanovic. 
There were a number of incidents in which candidates' 
advertising was defaced (particularly Mandic's).  There also 
were allegations of ID buying, but none have been substantiated. 
 In general, all candidates received significant media coverage, 
and we heard fewer allegations of vote buying and pressure to 
vote for a certain candidate than in previous elections. 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Overall, candidates ran substantive, issue-based 
campaigns (reftels).  Negative campaigning was less evident than 
in recent elections.  All candidates professed support for 
Montenegro's EU orientation and for Montenegro's identity as a 
civil state respecting minority rights.  We know of no incidents 
where a candidate overtly questioned Montenegrin statehood 
(although Mandic, who ran an otherwise positive campaign, 
surrounded himself with Serb symbols; Vujanovic very prominently 
linked his candidacy with the achievement of Montenegrin 
independence). 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Opposition candidates focused on issues such as wages, 
pensions, and jobs, as well as on crime and corruption.  A major 
opposition theme was that the DPS was running the government for 
its own financial benefit.  NATO membership was not a major 
issue (although Vujanovic publicly supported it and Mandic 
publicly opposed).  Mandic, and to a lesser degree Milic, sought 
to capitalize on widespread opposition to Kosovo's independence. 
 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) Vujanovic's eventual victory was never really in 
doubt, but despite initial skepticism that he could mobilize DPS 
members and sympathizers to achieve a first-round win, he did so 
by capitalizing on Montenegrin independence and by highlighting 
his close relations with DPS-favorite Djukanovic.  Mandic, who 
ran a generally positive, issue-based campaign -- although 
relying on Serb symbols and ideologues and with frequent 
references to his opposition to Kosovo independence -- has to be 
pleased to have solidified his position as the strongest 
opposition candidate in advance of 2009 parliamentary elections. 
 
 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) We expect the OSCE/ODIHR observation mission to give 
election day proceedings and Montenegro's electoral 
administration solid marks.  And while some deficiencies did 
mark the campaign, many observers believe it represented a 
modest step forward in terms of conduct and content over recent 
elections. 
MOORE