VZCZCXRO3561
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPOD #0116/01 0951309
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 041309Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0736
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0814

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000116 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:  VUJANOVIC HITCHES 
CAMPAIGN WAGON TO DJUKANOVIC'S STAR 
 
REF: PODGORICA 106 AND PREVIOUS 
 
PODGORICA 00000116  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  President Filip Vujanovic of the ruling 
Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) is the clear front-runner 
in the Montenegrin presidential election, set for April 6. 
Intent on a first-round victory, the low-key Vujanovic's biggest 
challenge is to mobilize DPS members and sympathizers, many of 
whom lobbied for party leader and current PM Djukanovic to run. 
Vujanovic can count on the DPS's formidable political machine to 
get out many voters, and as a recent visit to a campaign rally 
attested, is seeking to link his candidacy with Montenegrin 
statehood and emphasize his close relations with DPS favorite 
Djukanovic.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
Vujanovic Stakes Big Lead... 
 
---------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) Incumbent President Vujanovic enjoys a huge lead in the 
polls.  According to a March 14-20 survey by the CEDEM 
think-tank, 52.8 percent of likely voters support his candidacy 
(up from 49.5 percent in February).  His closest challenger, 
currently Serbian People's Party leader Andrija Mandic, has only 
19.8 percent support. 
 
 
 
...But Generating Enthusiasm Remains Main Challenge 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Vujanovic represents Montenegro's strongest party (in 
power for 17-plus years) and has a relatively clean image, low 
negative ratings, and a history of reaching out to minorities 
(and Serbs).  But DPS stalwarts worry that he lacks the charisma 
to energize voters and mobilize the DPS base in an election in 
which Montenegrin statehood is not at stake and all candidates 
profess support for European integration.  (Note:  Some 
Montenegrin nationalists also see Vujanovic, who patronizes the 
Serbian Orthodox Church, as soft on issues related to 
Montenegrin identity.)  While few doubt his ultimate victory, 
the DPS wants to avoid a second electoral round, which would 
embolden the opposition and draw public attention to policy 
differences, and many in the party originally lobbied for DPS 
leader and current PM Milo Djukanovic to run.  The very fact of 
DPS dominance and Vujanovic's substantial lead may work against 
him:  if victory is inevitable, why should those who voted for 
the DPS in the past -- perhaps to support Montenegrin 
independence -- bother to go the polls now? 
 
 
 
Seeking Support From All Montenegrins... 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Vujanovic's Chief of Staff Ivan Lekovic told us the 
President sought to mobilize voters by meeting as many of them 
as possible in visits to all 21 municipalities.  While not 
targeting particular voter groups or swing regions, Vujanovic is 
adjusting his message to address local concerns.  In poorer 
northern municipalities, Vujanovic has focused on economic and 
infrastructure development (and specific local issues like 
promising municipal status to the township of Gusinje) and 
downplayed the DPS's role in securing independence, while on the 
more prosperous Montenegrin coast he talked about managing 
development.  Continued European integration and the importance 
of stability have been common themes in all municipalities, 
Lekovic said. 
 
 
 
...But Counting On The DPS Machine 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Vujanovic has the advantage of incumbency -- he has 
been busy opening schools and handing out awards -- and enjoys 
more coverage on state media than his rivals.  The DPS hopes 
Djukanovic's accession to PM will energize supporters, as will 
good feelings from the independence referendum.  Finally and 
perhaps most importantly, the DPS's deep coffers are paying for 
 
PODGORICA 00000116  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
ubiquitous TV spots and billboards, and the party is counting on 
its formidable patronage machine to get out the vote (we heard 
the DPS deployed 4,500 activists in Podgorica, each charged with 
talking to at least 30 voters per day). 
 
 
 
Love-Fest in Niksic...For Milo 
 
------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Energy and enthusiasm were very much in evidence at a 
Vujanovic rally we attended in Niksic on March 29. A diverse 
crowd of over a thousand packed the hall, with many standing in 
the aisles. The families of Vujanovic, Djukanovic, and former PM 
Sturanovic are from Niksic; all three politicians attended the 
event (along with Parliament Speaker Ranko Krivokapic of the 
allied Social Democrats), which felt like a homecoming. 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) The focus of the audience's attention and adoration, 
however, was not Vujanovic.  Rather, the party faithful swooned 
over Djukanovic.  The PM entered the hall (with Vujanovic) to 
chants of "Milo, Milo," which were to be repeated any time a 
speaker mentioned Djukanovic (and sometimes even when they did 
not).  The crowd did yell Vujanovic's name, but much less 
frequently.  When Djukanovic took the stage, the audience rose 
to its feet, cell phone cameras clicking.  When Vujanovic spoke, 
half remained seated and a couple of people even made for the 
exits.  (Note:  Apparently seeking to turn the spotlight back on 
Vujanovic, Djukanovic stressed that he had never made a 
political decision without consulting Vujanovic and that 
securing a "European future" for Montenegro required a team 
effort.) 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) The crowd's enthusiasm also was for Montenegrin 
statehood.  Montenegrin flags festooned the gallery, Montenegrin 
folk songs warmed up the audience (which frequently broke into 
nationalist chants), and Montenegrin independence -- and 
specifically the fact that DPS leaders had passed the 
independence referendum over opposition from Vujanovic's rivals 
-- was the main theme of the evening, highlighted by almost 
every speaker.  Djukanovic in particular devoted much of his 
speech to systematically attacking the other presidential 
candidates for opposing independence (he also said Vujanovic's 
reelection was important for Montenegro's European integration 
prospects, continued economic growth, and stability in a 
transitional period). 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) Vujanovic used his speech, which was brief but 
punctuated by vigorous hand gestures, to praise Niksic for its 
anti-fascist credentials and support for Montenegrin 
independence.  He said that during his first term as President 
he had fulfilled most of his campaign promises -- Montenegro had 
achieved independence (which he said his rivals opposed) and was 
internationally recognized ("if my opponents had their way we 
would not be in these international organizations"), and he had 
supported minority rights and worked to reduce unemployment and 
raise wages and pension.  Montenegro was now well on its way 
toward Europe, and Vujanovic hoped to see the process through 
during a second term. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Backed by the DPS political machine and opposed by an 
internally divided opposition, Vujanovic's eventual victory does 
not appear to be in serious question.  But it remains to be seen 
whether he can deliver a first-round knockout.  A low-key 
personality, his biggest challenge is to energize DPS members 
and sympathizers in an election which by rights should not be 
about the emotional issue of independence -- which has been 
settled -- or about Montenegro's orientation -- which all 
candidates agree is toward Europe.  As the Niksic rally attests, 
Vujanovic is doing his best to both re-inject independence and 
Montenegrin nationalism (even though he is not seen as its 
strongest proponent by some) into the campaign in areas where it 
is favored and to link himself to the wildly popular (with DPS 
supporters) Djukanovic.  While stressing European integration, 
 
PODGORICA 00000116  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
economic improvements, stability, and local issues, his main 
message seems to be, "we brought you statehood, and I'll work 
with Milo to strengthen Montenegro," or simply, "I'm with Milo." 
MOORE