VZCZCXRO0307
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPOD #0106/01 0921641
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 011641Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0722
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0800

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000106 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:  MANDIC STRESSES UNITY 
WHILE MOBILIZING SERB BASE 
 
REF: PODGORICA 105 AND PREVIOUS 
 
PODGORICA 00000106  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Andrija Mandic of the Serbian People's Party 
(SNS) has inched into second place in the polls -- albeit far 
behind incumbent President Vujanovic (who is knocking on the 
door of a first-round victory) -- in the run-up to the April 6 
presidential election.  Defying his reputation as a 
rabble-rousing, anti-independence Serb nationalist, Mandic is 
running a positive, issue-based campaign.  However, he continues 
to surround himself with Serb symbols and Serb ideologues, and 
has capitalized on the Kosovo issue to mobilize his electoral 
base.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
Mandic Gains Ground 
 
------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) According to the latest survey (conducted March 14-20 by 
the CEDEM thinktank), Mandic has moved past Nebojsa Medojevic of 
the Movement for Change (PzP) into second place in the polls -- 
with 19.1 percent support compared to the PzP candidate's 18.3 
percent -- albeit still far behind incumbent President 
Vujanovic, who is supported by 52.8 percent of voters.  Mandic 
received 14.8 percent support in CEDEM's February poll, while 
Medojevic had 21.2 percent.  (A fourth candidate, Srdjan Milic 
of the Socialist People's Party (SNP), polled 9.8 percent in 
March and 9.9 percent in February). 
 
 
 
Uniting, Not Dividing? 
 
---------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Defying his reputation as a one-trick politician 
pandering to and supported by disgruntled, anti-independence 
Serbs, Mandic has run a surprisingly positive, issue-based 
campaign.  In slick TV advertisements, he touts his support for 
family values, security for pensioners, top quality education, 
health care improvements, higher wages, and the fight against 
crime and corruption.  In the advertisements, there is nary a 
mention of the Serb identity issues that have been his political 
bread-and-butter. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Mandic, who called for civil disobedience following the 
passage of the Constitution in October 2007, now says his 
"optimistic" candidacy -- he is running "for all of us" -- 
provides Montenegro with "a chance for unification."  In public 
speeches he has also touting his "European values."  SNS deputy 
leader Goran Danilovic told us recently that Mandic was 
supporting greater economic opportunities for youths, 
pensioners, and public sector employees, as well as equal rights 
for all minorities.  When we suggested that Mandic was promoting 
Serbs' rights, we were lectured on how Mandic was not singling 
out Serbs, and how his platform also benefited Bosniaks and 
Albanians. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) At a March 25 campaign rally we witnessed, Mandic stuck 
exclusively to economic and social issues.  Addressing a small 
but enthusiastic working-class crowd in a Podgorica suburb, he 
promised to fix Montenegro's pension system and eliminate drugs 
in schools, touted the benefits of computers for students, 
foreign language training, and "European education," and blasted 
the government for failing to clean up crime and corruption, 
which he said had slowed foreign investment.  He also mentioned 
he recently had lobbied the Russian Duma to extend the proposed 
South Stream gas pipeline through Montenegro.  (Note:  One of 
the opening speakers at the rally introduced Mandic as a 
candidate who "can have breakfast in Washington," -- a reference 
to Mandic's presence at the recent Prayer Breakfast -- "lunch in 
Belgrade, and dinner in Moscow".) 
 
 
 
Still The Serb Candidate 
 
------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) But while Mandic may not be highlighting identity 
issues in his national TV ads (or in the Podgorica appearance we 
 
PODGORICA 00000106  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
witnessed), he repeatedly has promised to amend the Constitution 
to promote the Serbian language, Serbian Orthodox Church, and 
Serbian flag.  He also does not need to stress Serb issues in 
his speeches, because others do that for him.  After Mandic 
entered the hall in Podgorica, all rose for the Serbian national 
anthem as supporters waved the Serbian flag and flashed the Serb 
three-fingered salute.  A speaker from the Serb Radical Party (a 
member of Mandic's Serbian List coalition) told the crowd that 
Mandic was the only candidate "who can reunite our brothers in 
Montenegro and Serbia," and the speaker who lauded Mandic's 
contacts in Washington, Belgrade, and Moscow also said Mandic 
could travel to Dubrovnik, but that "he would never kneel and 
apologize" for Montenegrin shelling of that city at the start of 
the Yugoslav civil wars. 
 
 
 
Kosovo Helps Mobilize Base 
 
-------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Also, more than any other candidate, Mandic has linked 
himself to opposition to Kosovo's independence.  Mandic 
organized the large anti-independence rally in Podgorica on 
February 22, and traveled to Kosovska Mitrovica on February 17 
and again on March 17 (a recent, full-page campaign ad in 
Vijesti featured a letter from a student association in that 
city supporting his candidacy).  In fact, he has promised to 
withhold recognition even if Serbia recognizes Kosovo. 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Mandic also has linked Kosovo to opposition to NATO. 
For example, on March 9 he told journalists that, while he would 
honor the results of a referendum on membership, "in my opinion, 
Montenegro does not belong in NATO," and the NATO bombing in 
1999 "was not aimed at protecting human rights in Kosovo but at 
depriving Serbia of part of its territory."  (Note:  Mandic 
further stated that, "I do not want my son Ilija to go to 
Afghanistan, Somalia, or Iraq to make war and hurt innocent 
people just like our people suffered less than ten years ago.") 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) Mandic vociferously opposed Montenegrin independence 
and just a few months ago called on Serbs to show civil 
disobedience to protest the passage of Montenegro's new 
constitution.  Despite the interesting electoral rhetoric, it 
would be premature to surmise that Mandic is trying to remake 
his Serb-based political force into a civic party (as Milic is 
attempting to do with the SNP) or that the up-tick in support 
for his candidacy over the last month comes from non-Serb 
voters.  His supporters (and indeed all citizens of this small 
country) know well what he stands for, and it is likely that the 
Kosovo issue has helped him mobilize his base electorate. 
Mandic himself has told us that his goal is to emerge from these 
elections as the uncontested leader of the opposition. 
MOORE