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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000934 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR TIBET COORDINATOR DOBRIANSKY 
NSC FOR HADLEY/ABRAMS 
H PASS TO SPEAKER PELOSI, REPRESENTATIVES MARKEY, 
MCDERMOTT, MILLER, SENSENBRENNER, INSLEE, HOLMES-NORTON, 
SOLIS, ESHOO AND HOLT 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR ETRD EINV MNUC PARM IN CH PK
SUBJECT: FS MENON PESSIMISTIC ON TIBET AND PAKISTAN 
 
 
NEW DELHI 00000934  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon told the 
Ambassador March 31 that he expected elements of the Tibetan 
community to become more independent of the Dalai Lama's 
moderate line the longer they reside in India's "free and 
open society."  He asserted that India would have no problem 
with any attempts by the U.S. to resettle Tibetan refugees 
currently in India, and he noted that the government could 
issue Indian re-entry permits which would allow Tibetan 
refugees to return to India.  The Ambassador asked about 
Menon's thoughts regarding political developments in 
Pakistan.  Menon said that the UPA government will reach out 
to the new government after the swearing-in ceremony, but he 
highlighted two concerns.  He worried that President 
Musharraf would not allow the new government to take credit 
for the progress that India and Pakistan made in 
confidence-building measures, and he wondered whether the new 
leadership even has the capacity to complete those steps.  He 
also observed that jihadis have increased their activities, 
and he worried about the temptation for the new government to 
incite external conflicts to increase its popularity.  End 
Summary. 
 
Menon Sees Tibetan Protests As a Long-Term Problem 
- - - 
 
¶2. (C) In a March 31 meeting with Foreign Secretary 
Shivshankar Menon, the Ambassador related that he met with 
the Dalai Lama March 28, during which the Dalai Lama 
articulated his grievances with the Chinese government.  The 
Ambassador asked Menon about the 40 Tibetan prisoners that 
remain in Delhi jails.  Menon assured him that the Indian 
government would free all the old prisoners, of which seven 
remained, and would soon release the newly arrested 
protesters as well.  Referring to the barbed wire and 
barricades placed around the Chinese Embassy last week, Menon 
observed that "the Chinese are now locked in jail themselves." 
 
¶3. (C) Menon stated that the sentiment of Indians "lies 
clearly on the side of Tibet."  "As a democracy, we allow 
Tibetans to express themselves, so long as they do not break 
the law," he assured the Ambassador.  Menon reiterated that 
India's stated policy is to "provide a space for which the 
Tibetan culture and religion is safe."  But Menon foresaw a 
long-term problem in which segments of the Tibetan community, 
while continuing to respect the Dalai Lama, diverge in their 
thinking.  "They have lived in the free and open society of 
India," Menon observed, "and they believe that they have 
rights."  He wondered about the effect of continued protests, 
since Han Chinese already outnumbered ethnic Tibetans in 
Lhasa, and would soon dominate the region.  "There is no 
existential threat to Chinese control over Tibet today," he 
 
NEW DELHI 00000934  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
stated, "and I'm not sure China is in any mood to give up." 
He conceded that he was not sure what the Indian government 
could do "beyond asking Tibet and China to talk to each 
other." 
 
Menon Has No Problem With Resettling Refugees in U.S. 
- - - 
 
¶4. (C) The Ambassador recounted that the Dalai Lama had 
pleaded with the congressional delegation led by Speaker 
Nancy Pelosi to resettle 2,000 Tibetan refugees currently 
residing in India in the U.S.  Menon responded, "we have 
always said that they're free to leave if they want."  He 
related that Tibetans who leave India have sought "No 
Objection to Return to India (NORI) certificates" from the 
Indian government, which allows them to return to India "like 
a re-entry visa."  Menon asserted that the Indian government 
stands ready to issue such certificates for those refugees 
who have lived in India for some time, but might have trouble 
issuing such paperwork for recent arrivals.  Menon also 
stated that the Indian government would have no problem with 
Tibetan refugees transiting through India from Nepal to the 
U.S., although he noted that they would not receive the NORI 
certificates.  "We would be happy to help in any way we can," 
he assured the Ambassador. 
 
Menon Worried About New Pakistan Government 
- - - 
 
¶5. (C) The Ambassador asked for Menon's thoughts on the new 
government in Pakistan.  Menon contended that "the new system 
was trying to figure itself out," but he offered that the 
Indian government would reach out after today's swearing-in 
ceremony.  After hearing Nawaz Sharif declare that the new 
government would review all actions taken by its predecessor, 
he worried that Prime Minister Gillani's government would 
lack the capacity to continue President Musharraf's efforts 
to build confidence-building measures.  Moreover, he 
cautioned that President Musharraf himself might not "allow 
someone else to take credit for all our hard work with him." 
 
¶6. (C) Menon also expressed anxiety about the rise of jihadis 
in the past two months which, he thought, stemmed from a 
process begun by the earthquake relief camps set up by 
terrorist groups in December 2005.  Those camps established 
linkages between Al Qaeda and the Taliban, which then fed 
into Punjab groups, particular Jaish-e-Muhammad, he 
explained.  Menon related that a former Chief Secretary told 
him that the March 3 Lahore bombing may have involved a 
Kashmiri group.  The ramped up terrorist activity has raised 
suspicion in India, he continued.  "The first temptation for 
a new government is to make peace inside, and go to war 
outside," he cautioned, adding that Nawaz Sharif had followed 
 
NEW DELHI 00000934  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
such a path.  The new government's approach to the Kashmir 
issue has also aggravated anxiety in India, he noted.  Still, 
the Indian government planned to keep its head "low and slow 
while the government finds its level." 
 
Comment: Troubled Neighbors Cause India Grief 
- - - 
 
¶7. (C) India has never lived in a quiet neighborhood, and the 
external difficulties in Tibet, China and Pakistan have 
compounded India's internal problems.  While India continues 
to attempt to enhance its economic relationship with China, 
it must also manage Tibetans and Indians who strongly support 
the Dalai Lama and an autonomous Tibet.  As Menon warns, the 
internal pressure to support Tibet will only increase.  As 
for Pakistan, the Indian government remains determined to 
avoid becoming a political issue, despite the recent spike in 
terrorist incidents that, Menon claimed, have roots in a 
troubled political environment.  A greater increase in 
attacks, however, will severely test an Indian government 
that will face a tough test from the political opposition as 
general elections approach. 
MULFORD