VZCZCXRO7616
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMZ #0141/01 1001419
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091419Z APR 08
FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4360
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000141 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: CSU UNITES BY STRESSING BAVARIAN DIFFERENCES WITH BERLIN 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
REF:  (A) Munich 102; (B) Munich 130 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (SBU) The Bavarian sister party to Chancellor Merkel's Christian 
Democrats (CDU), the Christian Social Union (CSU), held a special 
closed-door meeting for its leadership to address voter discontent 
and the appearance of divisions among the party leadership.  The 
CSU's leaders emerged from the meeting showing a united front, but 
promoting plans to highlight differences with Merkel's Grand 
Coalition government where Bavarian interests appear threatened. 
The strategy is aimed at ensuring that the CSU maintains its 
long-held absolute majority in the fall state elections, and that 
CSU party chief Erwin Huber keeps his job.  CSU politicians believe 
that it is in the interests of the CDU for the CSU to bolster its 
standing in Bavaria, even if it requires criticizing the national 
Grand Coalition to do so.  End summary. 
 
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THE SPRING OF THE CSU'S DISCONTENT 
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¶2.  (SBU) The leadership of the CSU held a closed-door meeting at 
the Bavarian alpine resort of Wildbad Kreuth April 4-5 to address a 
perceived "crisis of confidence" on the part of CSU voters resulting 
from a stream of negative news that has plagued the party in recent 
months.  The party's woes came into clear relief following the CSU's 
worst municipal election performance in forty years on March 2 (Ref 
A), leading to media speculation of a rift between Bavarian 
Minister-President Guenther Beckstein and CSU Chairman Erwin Huber, 
and a simmering "revolt" among the party's rank-and-file.  Some had 
even speculated that Federal Agriculture Minister Horst Seehofer 
would be brought home from Berlin to replace Huber as party chief. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The March 2 municipal elections exposed a general voter 
discontentment with the status quo, rather than any single "hot 
button" issue.  Among the issues contributing to voters' sense of 
malaise:  Bavaria's tough smoking ban that went into effect at the 
beginning of the year, but was subsequently watered-down to placate 
smokers; Bavarian officials handling of state bank BayernLB's 4.3 
billion euros in subprime-related losses (with Huber, as Finance 
Minister, sitting on the bank's supervisory board and a state 
legislature committee set to investigate -- see Ref B); the collapse 
of the planned, but unpopular "Transrapid" maglev train project 
between the Munich airport and main train station due to spiraling 
costs (Huber's pet project); and frustration over state educational 
reforms.  Additionally, Bavarian voters have expressed frustration 
with certain federal policies undertaken by the Grand Coalition in 
Berlin, including health care reform and increased taxes. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Some public opinion polls have recently predicted the CSU 
may get only about 50 percent of the vote in the September 28 state 
elections, in contrast to the party's 2003 result of 60 percent, 
which gave the party a two-thirds majority in the state legislature 
(Landtag) [Note: the two-thirds majority is due to the CSU receiving 
a portion of the votes from smaller parties that did not meet the 
threshold to enter the Landtag.  End note].  Meanwhile, both the 
"Independent" party and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) have 
legitimate hopes of winning enough votes to meet the five percent 
threshold necessary to enter the Landtag this fall, and would 
primarily gain seats from the CSU -- leaving many of the CSU's 124 
Landtag deputies, particularly those without constituencies, feeling 
vulnerable. 
 
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HIGHLIGHTING DIFFERENCES WITH BERLIN 
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¶5.  (SBU) Despite speculation over internal party divisions, the 
CSU's leadership emerged from its Wildbad Kreuth session displaying 
a united front, and vowing to go on the offensive in the face of the 
fall elections.  While sidestepping the party's problems at the 
state-level, CSU Chief Huber announced a strategy aimed at 
demonstrating that the CSU puts Bavaria first by sharpening the 
party's profile on federal issues.  Huber promised to submit a 
reform paper aiming at lower taxes and a reintroduction of a tax 
deduction for commuters.  CSU leaders also are pushing for an 
amendment of the federal health care reform agreed to by the Grand 
Coalition, should the reform result in Bavaria having to pay more 
than 100 million euros per year into the federal healthcare system. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) CSU Deputy Political Director and Foreign Policy Advisor 
Oliver Weiler told ConGen Munich that while he understands how the 
outcome of the Kreuth meeting could possibly be interpreted as 
undercutting the Chancellor's agenda, it is ultimately in the 
 
MUNICH 00000141  002 OF 002 
 
 
Chancellor's, and CSU sister party CDU's interest to have a strong 
CSU representing the CDU/CSU's southern tier.  For the CSU to remain 
a strong coalition partner, said Weiler, "it must represent 
Bavaria's interests." 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶7.  (SBU) The outcome of the Wildbad Kreuth meeting is consistent 
with what we have come to expect from the CSU:  at the end of the 
day, putting aside divisions (at least publicly), and demonstrating 
party loyalty and discipline with a goal of the CSU winning at least 
50 percent of the vote in the next election.  Huber's strategy of 
highlighting differences with the Grand Coalition should come as no 
surprise.  His mandate as CSU Chairman is to ensure that the CSU 
holds on to its absolute majority in Bavaria -- something the party 
has done for nearly half a century.  If that means distancing the 
party from earlier grand coalition agreements, so be it -- the CSU 
would not be taken to task by its voters for abandoning Berlin or 
the Grand Coalition, but it surely would for being seen as 
abandoning Bavaria.  End comment. 
 
¶8.  (U) This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
¶9.  (U) Previous reporting from Munich is available on our SIPRNET 
website at www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/munich/ . 
 
NELSON