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P 241543Z APR 08
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1502
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 8427
RUEHFL/AMCONSUL FLORENCE 0167
RUEHNP/AMCONSUL NAPLES 0164
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MILAN 000083 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/WE, EUR/PPD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2018 
TAGS: PGOV IT
SUBJECT: NORTHERN ITALY ELECTION RESULTS 
 
REF: A. MILAN 62 
     ¶B. MILAN 73 
     ¶C. ROME 472 
 
MILAN 00000083  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: CG Daniel Weygandt.  Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Berlusconi's People of Liberty (PdL) and Northern 
League (LN) coalition won every region in Northern Italy 
(excluding the autonomous regions of Val D'Aosta and 
Trentino-Alto Adige which elect local parties).  The Northern 
League virtually doubled its vote share in the North, largely 
at the expense of the PdL.  Far left parties lost most of 
their support, mainly to the benefit of the Democratic Party 
(PD).  Northern Italian voters shifted towards the two 
coalitions, forsaking small parties outside the two blocks on 
both the left and right.  The resulting win for PdL-LN gives 
Berlusconi a comfortable majority in the Chamber and Senate, 
but also gives the Northern League a prominent position in 
his government.  Dissatisfaction with the Prodi center-left 
government pushed voters to the right, but a weariness with 
politics as usual, and lackluster memories of Berlusconi's 
previous government drove a significant share of Forza Italia 
voters to support the Northern League.  The Northern League's 
three major campaign themes, fiscal federalism, security, and 
immigration reform, were appealing to Northern voters and 
pressure will mount on Berlusconi to incorporate them, in 
some form, in his government's program.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Note: The results discussed below are those of the 
Senate vote, more significant than the Chamber vote because 
the majority is calculated on a regional basis rather than at 
the national level.  PdL is Berlusconi's new party, primarily 
composed of the Forza Italia (FI) and National Alliance (AN) 
parties that ran in the 2006 election.  Similarly, PD is 
mainly the merger of the Democrats of the Left (DS) and the 
Daisy (Margherita).  The far left refers to the parties that 
ran as the Rainbow of the Left in this election and as the 
Reformed Communists, the Italian Communist Party and the 
Greens in 2006.  The 2006 results from these constituent 
parties are lumped together below to compare to the PdL, PD 
and far left results per general practice in media and 
political circles in Italy.  End note. 
 
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Lombardy 
-------- 
 
¶3. (C) While the PdL-LN coalition trounced the PD-Italy of 
Values (IdV) block by 55.12% to 32.02% in the Lombardy Region 
Senate vote, the results for individual parties are telling. 
The far left lost more than 8 percentage points from 11.7% of 
the vote in 2006 to 3.21% now.  Much of this support seems to 
have shifted to the PD, with small numbers also going for IdV 
and LN.  The Northern League almost doubled its share in the 
Senate vote from 11% in 2006 to 20.72%.  Most of this new 
support came from Berlusconi's PdL.  While PdL still came out 
as the winning party overall with 34.4%, this is almost 4 
percentage points less than its 2006 result of 38.3%. 
Support among new voters and votes pulled from the Center 
Union (UDC) held down PdL's loss.  Largely thanks to voters 
switching from the far left, the PD gained just under 4 
percentage points for 28.23% this year compared to 24.6% for 
its constituent parties in 2006. 
 
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Veneto 
------ 
 
¶4. (C) Even more dramatically than in Lombardy, the Northern 
League surged in Veneto, going from 11% of the vote in 2006 
to an incredible 26.1% - virtually on par with the PdL 
(28.3%) and the PD (27.2%).  The trend of voters moving from 
the former Forza Italia portion of PdL is even stronger in 
the Veneto, with PdL falling almost 9 percentage points from 
2006 levels.  The Northern League victory was an 
embarrassment for Regional President Galan, the leading PdL 
figure in the Veneto who had been discussed as a possible 
Minister.  Now, Berlusconi is widely rumored to be 
considering naming a Northern League figure as Minister of 
Agriculture (an important sector for the Veneto), most likely 
current Vice President of the Region Luca Zaia.  PD and IdV 
 
MILAN 00000083  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
also picked up about 1.5 percentage points each at the 
expense of the far left and UDC primarily. 
 
 
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Piedmont 
-------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Similar trends held for Piedmont, though more 
modestly.  Northern League again almost doubled its share, 
but to only 12.32% versus 6.5% in 2006.  PdL lost only a 
fraction of a percentage point.  PD and IdV made modest gains 
of around one percentage point.  The far left fell more than 
9 percentage points from 12.5% in 2006 to 3.32%.  Its vote 
share was split between PD, IdV and LN.  PdL again picked up 
new voters and minimal UDC support while losing some voters 
to LN. 
 
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Liguria 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Liguria was the scene of the biggest drop for the 
far left, down almost 10 percentage points from 13.1% in 2006 
to 3.5%.  Most of this support went to the PD, which took the 
largest vote share as an individual party (38.3% as opposed 
to 35.1% in 2006).  Still, the PdL-LN coalition won overall. 
PdL scored its only vote share increase in the North from 
35.8% in 2006 to 37.5% while the Northern League grew from 
3.8% in 2006 to 6.6%.  IdV also increased by over 2 
percentage points (or more than 100%) from 2.7% to 4.8%.  The 
Liguria results showcase a broader trend - the movement of 
votes away from parties outside the main coalitions.  In 
general, PdL, LN, PD and IdV all picked up votes at the 
expense of small parties external to the coalitions such as 
UDC, the far left and far right parties.  Liguria also had 
the closest election results in the North with 44.1% for 
PdL-LN and 43.1% for PD-IdV. 
 
--------------------- 
Friuli-Venezia-Giulia 
--------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Friuli-Venezia-Giulia went solidly for the PdL-LN 
group (48.5%) over the PD-IdV coalition (36.1%).  Still, as 
almost everywhere else in the North, PdL support shrunk from 
39.2% in 2006 to 35.5%. The Northern League nearly doubled 
its votes yet again from 7.1% in 2006 to 13% in 2008.  PD and 
IdV made small gains, largely as a result of the far left's 7 
percentage point drop (from 10% in 2006 to 3%). Regional 
President Illy (allied with the PD) lost his reelection bid, 
making it a sweep for PdL-LN.  (Comment: When the Consul 
General met Illy in early March, he seemed over-confident he 
would win and was not actively campaigning.  Post believes 
this was the most likely cause for his loss.  End comment.) 
 
----------------------------------- 
Trentino-Alto Adige and Val D'Aosta 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Trentino-Alto Adige and Val D'Aosta went strongly 
for local regional parties that are pro-autonomy.  Their 
deputies and senators will work to protect local interests. 
 
--------------------- 
Northern League Gains 
--------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) Press reports initially explained the Northern 
League's increase as coming from the far left.  Post believes 
most of the far left voters went to the PD and that Northern 
League support came predominantly from the PdL in Northern 
Italy.  Leading pollster Paolo Natale made the same point and 
cites exit polling data to support his contention that almost 
23% of former Forza Italia voters in Northern Italy defected 
from the PdL to vote for LN.  PdL insiders, such as 
presumptive Defense Minister Ignazio La Russa, also told the 
Consul General that less than one percentage point of voters 
nationally switched from the far left to the LN, far short of 
accounting for LN's four point gain nationally.  Thus, the 
resulting win for PdL-LN gives Berlusconi a comfortable 
majority in the Chamber and Senate, but also gives the 
Northern League a prominent position in his government.  How 
the LN will seek to exploit its gains, and make them lasting, 
could be a major factor in the overall stability of the new 
 
MILAN 00000083  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
government and its ability to carry out coherent reforms. 
WEYGANDT