VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLGB #0305/01 1211417
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301417Z APR 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5273
INFO RUEHJB/AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA 0299
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO 0029
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 1114
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 1882
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 0434
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 1201
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 0233

UNCLAS KIGALI 000305 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C 
DEPARTMENT PASS USTDA: ALUPO 
DEPARTMENT PASS COMMERCE: RTELCHIN 
DEPARTMENT PASS OPIC: BCAMERON 
DEPARTMENT PASS USAID/AFR/DP: TLAVELLE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN ECON PGOV EINV ETRD EGOV EAIDRW RW
SUBJECT: IMPACT OF RISING FOOD/AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY 
PRICES IN RWANDA 
 
REF: A. STATE 39410 
     ¶B. 07 KIGALI 1146 
     ¶C. O7 KIGALI 1005 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: For the majority of Rwandans who live in 
rural areas, good rains and harvests in 2007/2008 have kept 
prices for many staple crops at, or below, last year's 
prices.  Urban Rwandans have not fared as well and are 
suffering from significant price increases -- in some cases 
up to 100 percent -- for imported agricultural commodities 
such as cooking oil, sugar, beans, rice and wheat.  These 
increases have prompted the Rwandan government (GOR) to point 
fingers at wholesalers hoarding stocks and threaten price 
ceilings on key food commodities.  What the GOR really needs 
is to accelerate the modernization of the agricultural 
sector, improve food stock storage facilities to reduce 
post-harvest losses and invest in meteorological forecasting 
and agricultural commodity market information systems.  End 
summary. 
 
 
Overview of Food and Agricultural Prices, Supply and Demand 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
 
¶2. (U) Good rains and harvests in 2007/2008 have benefited 
Rwandan subsistence farmers producing staple crops such as 
sorghum, cassava, maize, banana, potato and sweet potato.  In 
the 12-month period from April 2007 - March 2008, prices for 
these products in most cases declined when compared to prices 
for the similar period in 2006-2007.  This is good news for 
85 percent of the population who rely on these crops for 
their basic food needs.  Less encouragingly, prices for beans 
and peas, used as a basic protein source for this population, 
have risen substantially -- over 40 percent compared to last 
year.  Much of this increase is due to the increase in the 
cost of beans being imported from the Democratic Republic of 
Congo (DRC) (ref B) where political instability has disrupted 
supplies and higher fuel prices (50 percent increase in the 
last semester) have increased transportation costs. 
 
¶3. (U) Similarly, prices for other imported foods such as 
wheat, rice, cooking oil and sugar have increased 
dramatically compared to last year.  Cooking oil and sugar 
have increased by over 100 percent, while wheat and rice have 
increased 16 and 40 percent respectively.  Landlocked Rwanda 
already pays a high premium for imported goods transported by 
road from Kenya and Uganda, or Tanzania.  By some estimates 
it costs as much to ship a bag of flour from Mombassa to 
Kigali as it does to ship the same bag from the United States 
to Mombassa.  Even if international prices for agricultural 
commodities were stable, rising fuel costs would force an 
increase in the street price of imported food to Kigali. 
Local wholesalers and traders have limited storage capacity 
and have little choice but to pass increased costs on to 
Rwandan consumers. 
 
¶4. (U) 5. (U) Rwanda's domestic agricultural production 
consists largely of subsistence farming on plots of less than 
1 acre.  Soil erosion, costly fertilizers, limited irrigation 
and water management systems, and weak crop storage capacity 
leaves Rwanda with low agricultural productivity and extreme 
sensitivity to weather fluctuations.  A bumper crop today 
barely feeds the population, while a poor crop tomorrow could 
Qbarely feeds the population, while a poor crop tomorrow could 
have a devastating impact on available food supplies.  With 
prices of agricultural commodities at record levels, Rwanda 
would be hard-pressed to compensate for a poor harvest by 
importing its food needs. 
 
¶5. (U) Many imported food products are staples for urbanized 
Rwandans thus price increases for such commodities have an 
immediate impact on the 15 percent of the population who live 
in cities.  Urban Rwandans are already suffering 
disproportionately from rising fuel costs, rents and school 
fees (ref B).  While urban Rwandans for now represent a 
minority of the population, it is a fast growing segment of 
the Rwandan polity and potentially the most politically 
active.  In the short term, the upper crust will grumble and 
 
poorer city dwellers will likely substitute their consumption 
of imported foods for locally grown products.  In the medium 
and long term, the uncertain availability of local produce 
due to weather conditions, leaves Rwanda vulnerable to food 
shortages and associated social unrest. 
 
 
Impact on Domestic Politics, Economy and Environment 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶6. (U) The GOR has been quick to point fingers at 
agricultural wholesalers who they accuse of hoarding stocks 
and engaging in "exploitative practices", and has threatened 
price-ceilings on key foodstuffs.  The Senate has also 
publicly "summoned" the Minister of Commerce to explain the 
"soaring food prices."  The Minister of Commerce, Monique 
Nsanzabagnwa admitted to reporters the demand for cereals in 
the country is greater than the supply in spite of increased 
local production.  She blamed the food price increases on 
rising international agricultural commodity prices, higher 
transportation costs, the declining dollar and food shortages 
in neighboring countries such as Uganda and Kenya. 
Nsanzabagnwa noted the Ministry of Agriculture through the 
Integrated Development Program hopes to improve production 
and supply of local agricultural products, encourage farmers 
to improve storage capacity for grains, eliminate monopolies 
in the distribution chain and establish a market information 
system to integrate price information from regional markets. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Informally, Econoff heard from several sources 
including a consultant at the Ministry of Agricultural that 
the GOR is extremely concerned about food shortages and is 
looking for quick fix solutions.  This source predicted if 
the situation did not improve there could be serious social 
unrest before the end of the year. 
 
¶8.  (U) Rising food prices have contributed to rising 
inflation rates across the country.  According to the 
National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, the national 
annual inflation rate has increased from 9.1 percent in 
December 2007 to an estimated 10.3 percent in February. 
Inflationary pressures will only increase as imported food 
stocks are depleted and replaced at higher cost, and fuel 
costs continue to rise.  As reported in reftel B, the impact 
of inflation on most Rwandans is more profound than indicated 
by the national statistics.  The vast majority of Rwandans 
live on less than $1 per day and can ill afford rising costs 
for basic necessities. 
 
 
Host Government Policies and Post Programs 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (U) The GOR recognizes the need to modernize its 
agricultural sector and is struggling to implement land 
reform programs that would allow for more efficient farming 
techniques.  Densely populated rural communities, with most 
available farmland splintered into tiny plots with no land 
titles, make this a daunting challenge.  With the aid of the 
international donor community, the GOR has also been 
encouraging better land management including investment in 
terracing, irrigation, use of fertilizers and the 
introduction of value added crops.  Progress has been slow. 
While some sectors (such as high value coffee) have shown 
QWhile some sectors (such as high value coffee) have shown 
solid gains, for the most part agricultural production 
continues to be inefficient, highly dependent on weather and 
vulnerable to soil erosion and depletion.  Crop storage 
facilities are inadequate and market distribution weak. 
 
¶10. (U) USG agricultural development assistance programs have 
focused on value added crops such as high quality specialty 
coffee. This assistance has been successful but limited in 
scope.  As a percent of the total country USAID budget, 
agricultural development assistance currently represents 
about eight percent of total expenditures.  USAID also 
manages a Title II food aid program averaging $10 million 
annually.  However, this program is scheduled to be 
terminated in 2009.  Rwanda desperately needs more 
 
agricultural development assistance to avoid food shortages 
with potentially destabilizing political consequences.  To 
improve agricultural yields, the GOR needs targeted 
assistance in implementing irrigation,  terracing and land 
conservation programs.  Assistance in developing effective 
crop storage facilities are needed to mitigate the impact of 
poor harvests.  Current estimates indicate that post-harvest 
losses for most food crops exceed 20 percent. Improving 
market information systems would provide for more efficient 
pricing and distribution between regional markets. 
Developing Meteorological forecasting capacity would assist 
Rwanda to more accurately predict weather conditions, manage 
water resources and take early action against flood and 
drought conditions. 
 
 
How Can We Help ? 
----------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU)  Comment: Most observers believe that the ethnic 
tensions that led to the 1994 genocide have not yet abated, 
despite an official ideology of political reconciliation. 
While the GOR is firmly in control, it recognizes that rapid 
economic development and an improved quality of life across 
the socio-economic spectrum is an essential balm needed to 
achieve national unity.  Until now the GOR has largely 
delivered on its promises for better economic conditions. 
However, inflation and rising food prices are hurting the 
average Rwandan and could threaten reconciliation efforts. 
The USG can help by investing more resources in agricultural 
development.  Such investment will have multiplier effects 
across the Rwandan economy, support political stability and 
ethnic reconciliation and provide trade opportunities for 
American companies.  Post supports this investment and 
recommends increasing the amount of USAID funding allocated 
to agricultural development from 8 to 30 percent of total 
assistance or $40 million annually.  End comment. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ARIETTI