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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KATHMANDU 000374 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM EAID NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL:  CAREENING TOWARD ELECTION IN NINE DAYS 
 
REF: A. KATHMANDU 341 
     ¶B. KATHMANDU 309 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell.  Reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Nine days before the April 10 Constituent Assembly 
election, the Election Commission is on track with its 
preparations.  Meanwhile, the legal system established for 
resolving electoral disputes does not inspire confidence, 
according to a key Embassy contact.  Poll-related violence, 
primarily by the Maoists, is increasing, as the UN Mission in 
Nepal has reported.  Armed Madhesi groups in the Terai 
refused proffered talks with the Government of Nepal (GON) 
because the GON did not meet their preconditions.  The groups 
launched a Terai strike instead.  Nevertheless, the electoral 
outlook in the Terai appears to be improving as the Madhesi 
parties settle into their campaigns and district officials 
finalize logistics. 
 
Election Commission on Track with Ballots... 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Peter Erben, country director for IFES, reported on 
March 28 that the Election Commission (EC) is on track with 
its Constituent Assembly (CA) election preparations and 
training of polling officials, but transportation and 
distribution logistics remain a concern.  The EC, previously 
unable to fill all volunteer positions, has improved staff 
recruitment in hotspot areas of the Terai.  Erben projected 
the USAID-sponsored ballot printing would finish on March 31, 
four days ahead of schedule, and that ballots should be 
distributed to districts on time.  IFES is assisting the 
domestic NGO Democracy and Election Alliance Nepal (DEAN) 
with the Nepal Election Portal (www.nepalelectionportal.org), 
a website that provides extensive election information and 
which will post analysis of election results, including 
parallel vote tabulation, EC-provided constituency-level 
results, and a database linked to candidate and party 
information.  Erben suggested that the portal would be able 
to help validate election results, which could be useful if, 
as expected, some results are contested. 
 
...And Cleaning Up Candidate Lists 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Separately, the United Nations Mission in Nepal 
(UNMIN) noted in its weekly activities update on March 27 
that the EC is vetting proportional representation lists and 
will publish the final lists on April 4.  The EC received 
objections against three candidates, all government 
employees, who may be disqualified from their closed lists. 
The EC has also found 22 candidates to be under-aged, 253 
candidates who failed to provide proof of citizenship, 10 
candidates running in both proportional representation and 
first-past-the-post (FPTP) races, and five candidates listed 
under two different parties.  On March 24, the EC informed 
the Supreme Court that the GON's much-criticized and 
since-suspended decision to allocate one million rupees 
(approximately USD 15,873) to each Member of Parliament 
violated the electoral Code of Conduct. 
 
Courts Problematic 
------------------ 
 
¶4.  (C) Erben told the Ambassador March 28 that the 
significance of the CA election and the increase since the 
last general election in 1999 in political awareness broadly 
may lead to a flood of electoral litigation.  This is 
problematic because of a weak judiciary and an arcane 
adjudication system.  Erben lamented the lack of real due 
process, describing the situation of a FPTP candidate from 
Jhapa who recently had his candidacy canceled by the 
returning officer because the candidate was allegedly a loan 
defaulter.  The special CA Court will hear his appeal, but it 
 
KATHMANDU 00000374  002 OF 004 
 
 
does not have to do so before the election.  Under the law, 
it has three months to decide.  Such a lengthy time to decide 
cases may make unresolved issues worse.  Erben concluded 
that, in his opinion, the election will not be free and fair, 
but it is fair to hope that broadly-accepted results could 
contribute to peace, stability, and democratization of the 
country. 
 
Poll-Related Violence Increasing 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Chief Election Commissioner Bhojraj Pokharel summoned 
Nepali Congress (NC) party leader and Prime Minister G.P. 
Koirala, Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist 
(UML) leader M.K. Nepal, and Communist Party of Nepal - 
Maoist chairman Pushpa Dahal (aka Prachanda) to his office on 
March 31 to address the growing poll-related violence. 
Prachanda assured M.K. Nepal at the latter's residence on 
March 30 that he would command Young Communist League (YCL) 
cadres to stop attacking members of other parties, according 
to media reports.  In their second joint election report 
released the same day, UNMIN and the Office of the High 
Commissioner for Human Rights cited as the main threats to 
campaigning a surge in obstruction, intimidation, and 
violence between the Maoists and other political parties and 
activities by armed groups in the Terai opposed to the 
election.  A clash between NC and YCL cadres at a mass 
meeting in Solukhumbu in the eastern hills on March 26 left 
one Maoist dead and Bal Bahadur KC, the NC candidate from the 
constituency, severely wounded.  Another Maoist cadre was 
killed in Kapilvastu in the western Terai the same week. 
 
Two Killed in Biratnagar Mosque Bombing 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) Two people were killed and two others seriously 
injured when a bomb exploded at a mosque in the eastern Terai 
city of Biratnagar (Morang) on March 29, coinciding with the 
visit of PM Koirala to his hometown.  Koirala, talking to 
reporters at his Biratnagar residence the following morning, 
condemned the attacks and suggested the bombing could have 
been a response to the deteriorating six-party-plus-Maoist 
alliance.  Maoist district leader Puspa claimed royalists 
carried out the attack to derail the election.  NC district 
president Amrit Aryal also accused anti-election entities of 
the bombing but did not specify a particular perpetrator. 
UNMIN chief Ian Martin issued a statement condemning the 
blast and appealing for calm.  Residents from mainly the 
Muslim community held localized demonstrations and 
transportation strikes and closed the main markets in 
Biratnagar for a day, but an indefinite curfew imposed on the 
evening of March 29 was lifted the following morning. 
 
Armed Madhesi Groups Refuse Talks 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) After much complaining that the GON has ignored them 
(reftels), four armed Madhesi groups ultimately refused 
proffered talks with the government because police had not 
complied with their demand to release their cadres from 
detention.  Talks between the GON and the four groups -- 
Samyukta Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha, Terai Cobra, Madhesi 
Mukti Tigers, and Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM) -- 
originally had been scheduled to occur in Janakpur on March 
¶28.  (Note:  This current grouping does not include the two 
most active armed groups in the Terai, the Jwala Singh 
faction of the JTMM and Jai Krishna Goit's Akhil Terai Mukti 
Morcha.  End note.)  On March 28, a seven-member GON 
negotiation team led by Peace and Reconstruction Minister Ram 
Chandra Poudel had written a second invitation urging the 
groups to come to the table without preconditions, according 
to media reports.  As of March 31, the talks have yet to be 
rescheduled, and the same groups had enforced a two-day 
"bandh" (strike) in the headquarters of four Terai districts 
starting March 31 
 
Ambassador's Observations from Western Terai 
 
KATHMANDU 00000374  003 OF 004 
 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) During her March 26-27 trip to Banke district and 
Bardiya National Park in the western Terai, the Ambassador 
found government officials prepared for an election.  The 
Banke Chief District Officer (CDO) claimed that the killing 
the previous week in Banke of a National People's Front 
candidate had been the work of common criminals hiding behind 
a political affiliation.  The CDO held the U.S.-sponsored 
electoral street dramas in high regard.  (Note: 
IFES-supported performers have been playacting their way 
through all 75 districts to educate Nepalis about the CA 
election.  According to Peter Erben, the dramas have drawn 
satisfied crowds of a couple hundred to a couple thousand per 
performance.  End note.)  In Nepalgunj, the park warden and 
several staff had been pulled in as polling officials.  The 
Ambassador saw few campaign flags but many EC posters.  In 
remote villages, many flags were visible, and villagers had 
received the invitations to vote, which USAID's Office of 
Transition Initiatives printed for the EC.  The Ambassador 
noted that, when other Nepalis were not around, many 
villagers admitted they thought the Maoists would do well in 
Bardiya. 
 
More from the Terai: Violence Questionable 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) A contractor for USAID's Office of Transition 
Initiatives told the Ambassador on March 28 she no longer 
expected large-scale violence in the Terai.  The contractor 
said the Madhesi parties, unable to capitalize on the Madhesi 
movement, now appeared willing to give the CA an opportunity 
to address Madhesi issues rather than insisting that Madhesi 
parties obtain a set percentage of votes and seats.  On the 
other hand, the contractor said, the Maoist Young Communist 
League (YCL) cadres had been very active, openly displaying 
weapons and allegedly providing training to cadres along the 
border.  Nevertheless, she said, the NC's prospects were 
looking better in the Terai.  The Ambassador commented that, 
during her recent trips to the Terai, she had seen more NC 
flags than UML or Madhesi party flags. 
 
Mixed Confidence in NC and UML Locally, Nationally... 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶10.  (C) Dominic Cardy, Country Director for the National 
Democratic Institute (NDI), reported on March 28 that at the 
local level, UML activists were enthused and standing up to 
the Maoists, but confidence levels in the NC were mixed. 
Cardy said that NC cadres have hired thugs in areas where 
they no longer have influence over the police.  On the 
national level, the NDI country director observed decreased 
UML enthusiasm for an election as party cadres realized they 
could not fight the Maoists, but overall the UML was 
relatively positive.  The NC has continued to comment 
publicly that an election may not be possible because of 
security concerns. 
 
...And in Ramechhap 
------------------- 
 
¶11.  (C) Emboff heard similar remarks during a March 27-28 
visit to Ramechhap, a hill district east of Kathmandu 
(septel).  Laxman Ghimire, NC Central Committee Member and 
member of Parliament, told Emboff he had no faith the 
election could be held on April 10, and suggested the UML and 
NC would be better off working together to postpone the polls 
and sideline the Maoists.  Dev Shankar Poudel, the UML 
candidate from Ramechhap constituency number one, told Emboff 
at the same meeting that postponing the election without a 
guarantee of peace would be useless, but having candidates 
continue to risk their lives for a clearly unfair election 
would be equally useless.  (Note:  Poudel was the victim of a 
Maoist attack while campaigning on March 12.  He sustained a 
serious head injury and still had difficulty walking when he 
met Emboff on March 27.  End note.)  Poudel said the best 
choice would be to persevere through this crucial period. 
 
KATHMANDU 00000374  004 OF 004 
 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12.  (C) Cancellation of the Constituent Assembly election 
seems unfathomable with only nine days to go, but increasing 
violence, particularly by the Maoists, and a resulting 
decrease in confidence within the UML and at best a mixed 
picture within the Nepali Congress means that option cannot 
be completely ruled out.  Certainly the Maoists have little 
reason for confidence despite their bold assertions of 
imminent victory.  Visits to various districts reveal a 
nation of voters who eagerly desire change yet are still 
doubtful, at least in some districts, that it can happen in 
the current electoral climate.  On March 31, the Chief 
Election Commissioner met with the leaders of the three major 
parties -- NC, UML, and Maoist -- in an effort to broker some 
solution to the ongoing electoral violence.  While there was 
no major breakthrough, the public welcomed this step. 
POWELL