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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
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RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 4469
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000254 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR S. HILL 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS 
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF PLANS VOTE-RIGGED VICTORY OR COUP 
 
REF: HARARE 252 AND PREV. 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  Two contacts with direct access to the 
ZANU-PF security apparatus told us the night of March 31 that 
ZANU-PF is in the process of rigging the election and will 
have the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) announce that 
President Robert Mugabe has won reelection with over 51 
percent of the vote.  An announcement is planned this morning 
(April 1).  If this plan is thwarted, the ruling party 
intends to declare a state of emergency to prevent a Morgan 
Tsvangirai victory.  In an effort to preempt MufvQ/-Rhe ZANU-PF plot.  Separately, the Zimbabwe Election 
 
SIPDIS 
Support Network (ZESN) announced results of a parallel vote 
count.  Based on a sample of 435 polling stations, ZESN 
stated that Tsvangirai's projected vote was over 49 percent 
with Mugabe winning 42 percent.  The margin of error was 
about 2.5 percent.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) We spoke separately the evening of March 31 with a 
businessman with ties to the ruling party who has contacts 
within the ZANU-PF security apparatus, and with ZANU-PF 
dissident Ibbo Mandaza who is a close ally of Simba Makoni. 
Mandaza has close Central Intelligence Organization (CIO) 
contacts who are opposed to Mugabe.  Both the businessman and 
Mandaza related consistent versions of a ZANU-PF plot. 
 
¶3.  (C) According to both of our contacts, Mugabe's inner 
circle became aware early on in the vote-counting process 
that Mugabe was losing and that Tsvangirai would probably win 
over 50 percent of the vote.  Individuals who are part of 
this coterie are Defense Chief Constantine Chiwenga, Police 
Commissioner Augustine Chichuri, Minister of State Security 
Didymus Mutasa, Minister of Labor Nicholas Goche, Minister of 
Justice Patrick Chinimasa, CIO Director Happyton Bonyongwe, 
and presidential spokesperson George Chy?QQ}xZ{with what they believed to be the actual 
results.  Instead of Tsvangirai receiving over 50 percent of 
the votes, he would receive slightly less and Mugabe would 
receive a little over 40 percent.  This would create a runoff 
and would be acceptable to ZANU-PF officials who are 
anti-Mugabe.  They concluded, however, that Mugabe would lose 
a runoff.  They then decided to rig to give Mugabe 51.6 
percent.  We understand there are plans to announce this 
result today.  Our contacts told us that to carry out the 
plan, the group has established a command center which is 
dictating results to the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC). 
 If the rigging plan was thwarted, they planned a state of 
emergency, and ultimately a coup against Tsvangirai if he 
somehow became president. 
 
¶5.  (C) Mandaza said he met with MDC officials yesterday 
morning and informed them of the plot.  TPq.Q1Q_w/ 
Tsvangirai was to make the announcement--he has not been 
 
SIPDIS 
visible since the election, reportedly because of security 
concerns--and possibly expose the ZANU-PF plot.  For unknown 
reasons, the MDC decided not to hold a press conference.  One 
is now scheduled for this morning. 
 
¶6.  (C) Separately, ZESN last night announced results of its 
parallel vote count.  Based on a sampling of 435 polling 
 
HARARE 00000254  002 OF 002 
 
 
stations, ZESN projected that Tsvangirai would win 49.4 
percent of the vote, Mugabe would win 41.8 percent, and 
Makoni would win 8.2 percent.  The margin of error for 
Tsvangirai was 2.4 percent, for Mugabe 2.6 percent, and for 
 
SIPDIS 
Makoni 1.1 percent.  In a press conference where the results 
were presented, ZESN urged the ZEC to make public the polling 
station results which, according to the Electoral Act, were 
required to be posted outside polling stations on completion 
of counting. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶7.  (C) Armed with information, the MDC has dallied, and it 
appears ZANU-PF will take advantage of the MDC's failure to 
act.  All signs point to Mugabe seizing the initiative and 
declaring victory today.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
MCGEE