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Viewing cable 08GUAYAQUIL88, UNCERTAINTY SLOWING INVESTMENT BY GUAYAQUIL

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08GUAYAQUIL88 2008-04-10 21:36 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Consulate Guayaquil
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHGL #0088/01 1012136
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 102136Z APR 08
FM AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9413
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3289
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0462
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ APR LIMA 3711
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 0531
C O N F I D E N T I A L GUAYAQUIL 000088 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2018 
TAGS: ECON PGOV EC
SUBJECT: UNCERTAINTY SLOWING INVESTMENT BY GUAYAQUIL 
BUSINESS SECTOR 
 
REF: A. QUITO 152 
 
     B. QUITO 129 
 
Classified By: Consul General Douglas Griffiths for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
 (d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: In the face of continued uncertainty about 
Ecuador's regulatory environment and long-term policies, 
Guayaquil's business sector is still holding off on the new 
investment needed to foster growth and employment.  Business 
leaders expect continued underperformance in 2008, 
considering that current high prices of Ecuadorian exports 
ought to be driving strong growth.  Most believe that the 
Correa administration is wary of the private sector, but 
opinions differ as to how damaging the policies have been and 
what direction the government will take.  The private sector 
is frustrated by delays in building a new regulatory 
framework and cautious of what may be coming, particularly 
proposed restrictions on the already inflexible labor market. 
 In the end, for coastal business leaders used to working 
around government regulations, the administration's failure 
to define a clear direction for its economic program may do 
more damage than any actual policies.  END SUMMARY. 
 
GUAYAQUIL BUSINESSES BEARISH FOR 2008( 
---------- 
 
2.  (C) In a round of meetings with Econcouns and Econoff on 
March 31, prominent Guayaquil business leaders forecast a 
poor business and investment climate in 2008, despite fairly 
favorable external conditions.  Worldwide prices of most 
Ecuadorian exports, such as oil, shrimp, tuna and bananas, 
are high, and Colombia and Peru are expected to post 5-7% 
growth this year.  However, Guayaquil's private sector agreed 
with bearish IMF estimates for Ecuador that predict about 
2.5% annual growth in 2008.  Many believe that this is a 
result of continued uncertainty about the new regulatory 
framework and the Correa administration's long-term policies. 
 
 
3.  (C) Maria Gloria Alarcon, President of the Guayaquil 
Chamber of Commerce, noted that most local businesses are in 
a holding pattern until the country approves its new 
constitution and President Rafael Correa makes his economic 
agenda clearer.  "The new labor laws approved by the 
Constituent Assembly have a lot of businesses investing in 
labor-saving machinery to replace workers who will soon 
become more expensive," she explained.  "But they are not 
really investing to build additional capacity."  Her father, 
Paco Alarcon, separately told the Consul General that his 
Venezuelan and Columbian partners have cancelled two planned 
joint ventures due to the political uncertainty.  Carlos 
Andrade, Acting President of Guayaquil's Chamber of 
Industries, said that some companies are investing to 
maintain their core business sectors, but are not expanding 
into new areas.  He added that, ironically, the uncertainty 
helps protect established companies, as its scares away new 
entrants. 
 
BELIEVE GOVERNMENT IS WARY OF PRIVATE SECTOR... 
---------- 
 
4.  (C) Part of the uncertainty that is paralyzing investment 
stems from difficulties in interpreting the government's 
approach to the private sector.  Guayaquil's business 
community generally agrees that the new administration has 
thus far not fostered a good environment for business and 
investment.  However, opinions differed as to just how 
"anti-business" the administration really is.  Some 
interlocutors were frustrated by the numerous small 
regulatory changes the government has imposed, which they 
believe are chipping away at their ability to do business. 
According to Guillermo Lasso, President of Banco de 
Guayaquil, the GOE's bank policies are limiting access to 
credit, especially for the poor.  "Banks no longer have 
access to the nationwide credit report database, so we are 
operating in the dark and more hesitant to approve new 
loans," he told Econcouns.  "Lowering interest rate caps will 
also restrict the supply of credit, unless the government 
orders us to give more loans."  Alarcon pointed to changes in 
the licensing procedures for importers that have made it 
harder to bring in goods from other countries.  "They now 
have to get additional approvals from the government to 
import foreign products," she said.  She also stated her 
belief that Correa is using price controls on milk to 
directly target her dairy products business, although she 
acknowledged that her company mainly produces value-added 
products that are not subject to the price controls. 
 
 
5.  (C) While Lasso and Alarcon are convinced the government 
is implementing measures designed to hamper the private 
sector, other business leaders offered more favorable 
assessments of the Correa administration's reforms.  For 
example, Andrade opined that elements of the new tax law are 
understandable, given the level of tax evasion.  While the 
law was drafted behind closed doors, the government did 
consult with businesses about implementing the regulations. 
"However, how the laws are implemented is the key," he 
continued, referring to the tax law and other changes. 
Walter Spurrier, Editor of the Weekly Analysis magazine and a 
well known economic analyst, also felt that the situation was 
not as bad many believe.  "The coming year will not be good, 
but it will not be cataclysmic either," he said.  The local 
Toyota and Chevrolet dealers told the Consul General that 
they are having their best year on record in terms of sales 
volume.  Revenues are down after the Correa administration 
dramatically increased taxes on luxury cars, but mass market 
cars are selling in record numbers. 
 
...BUT UNSURE OF GOVERNMENT'S LONG-TERM PLANS 
---------- 
 
6.  (C) The business community in Guayaquil is also divided 
over the direction Correa will take after the new 
constitution is approved.  Guillermo Lasso predicted that 
"Correa will swing firmly to the left."  Both he and Alarcon 
expect the president to propose legislation that further 
discourages investment after approval of the new constitution 
and the expected national elections in late 2008.  On the 
other hand, the Chamber of Industries believes that Correa is 
already backing off from some of the proposals from their 
first year in office.  "The government has learned that the 
price controls are not working, and they are beginning to 
move away from using them," said Jose Salvador, Executive 
Director of the Chamber of Industries.  Spurrier added that 
many of the more economically leftist ministers have left the 
government in recent months.  The government's increase in 
basic welfare payments, the minimum wage and a new program 
that allows employees to borrow from their retirement 
accounts have created a consumer boomlet.  A housing 
developer recently told the Consul General that his new low 
to middle class housing developments on the outskirts of 
Guayaquil are netting record sales, while his luxury 
developments are unsold because the rich are waiting to see 
what direction the government takes. 
 
UNCLEAR WHAT NEW CONSTITUTION WILL BRING 
---------- 
 
7.  (C) The other factor contributing to the private sector's 
uncertainty and reluctance to invest is the fact that they 
still have only vague ideas about the new regulatory 
environment the Constituent Assembly will create.  Although 
the Assembly has approved a few measures relating to economic 
matters, they have still only addressed these issues in broad 
terms.  Guayaquil's private sector was only able to offer a 
few limited examples of what the changes might look like.  "I 
have it on good authority that the new constitution will go 
after private property.  It will stipulate that all property 
needs to contribute to social welfare, which gives the 
government a powerful tool to use against businesses," 
Alarcon said.  Indeed, a draft text from the Assembly calls 
for an economic model of "solidarity," though it is still 
unclear what exactly that means. 
 
8.  (C) However, Pablo Lucio Paredes, a Quito-based economist 
and delegate to the Constituent Assembly, said that he does 
not expect extensive changes in economic provisions between 
the current and new constitutions, arguing that the 
constitution is not the appropriate tool to implement 
Correa's economic vision.  He did not anticipate any 
appreciable change to the definition of private property 
(Septel). 
 
ECONOMY WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERPERFORM 
---------- 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT: The divergence of opinion of Guayaquil's 
business leaders illustrates just how much uncertainty the 
government's policies ) particularly the gap between 
rhetoric and implementation (Reftel A and B) - have created. 
Guayaquil's business community has decades of experience 
dealing with (and finding ways around) government 
regulations.  But with no clear definition on even the broad 
direction of the economic policy, investment and job creation 
outside of the retail and construction sectors have largely 
 
come to a stand-still, with negative repercussions over the 
medium and long-term.  Given the current high oil prices, 
Ecuador's economy will probably continue to muddle along for 
the rest of the year at its current pace.  But when Ecuador's 
neighbors are posting robust growth and only about 25 percent 
of the country's workforce in the formal sector, just getting 
by is not good enough. 
GRIFFITHS