VZCZCXRO9367
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RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDF #0017/01 1070950
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 160950Z APR 08
FM AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0129
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHDF/AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF 0145

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSSELDORF 000017 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON ELAB GM
SUBJECT: THE LEFT PARTY IN NRW: AN EMERGING FACTOR IN STATE POLITICS 
 
 
DUSSELDORF 00000017  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified -- Not for Internet Distribution 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Barely six months after forming its 
North-Rhine Westphalia chapter in October 2007, the Left Party 
is changing the political landscape in Germany's most populous 
state.  The party is gaining in membership and in the opinion 
polls and already has its first state parliament (Landtag) 
member.  The party has not adopted a formal platform, but some 
leaders appear to be attempting to moderate the leadership's 
rather hard line approach. With the NRW Social Democratic Party 
(SPD) in disarray, the Left Party will be a factor in the state 
elections in 2010, although it is much too early to predict how 
much.  It is, however, likely to complicate coalition building. 
Having doubled its electoral support projections in the last 2-3 
years, the party is trending upward.  End Summary. 
 
Hard Left Leadership, Increasing Membership 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) When the Left Party established its chapter in NRW in 
October 2007 via the merger of two small left parties, the 
western WASG and eastern PDS, it was the last state in Germany 
to do so.  Since then, the party has gained considerably in 
visibility and influence in the state.  Its co-chairs, Wolfgang 
Zimmerman (formerly of the WASG) and Ulrike Detjen (formerly of 
the PDS), are pursuing a rather hard line, isolationist course, 
refusing Pol/Econ Officer's request for a meeting on the grounds 
that "U.S. policy is diametrically opposed" to their ideology 
and publishing their response in the Berlin left-wing newspaper 
JungeWelt.  Left Party Bundestag Member Hueseyin-Kenan Aydin, a 
Turkish-born trade unionist and one-time SPD member from the 
Ruhr area who co-founded the NRW WASG, told Pol/Econ Officer 
that party leaders are still debating their course.  While they 
appear extreme now, he expected them to moderate their tone and 
policy positions over time.  He said he expressed 
dissatisfaction during internal meetings with Zimmermann and 
Detjen over their decision not to meet with us, arguing that 
dialogue is important and encouraging engagement with the USG. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) With some 6,300 members, Left Party membership in NRW 
is comparatively low (cf. Greens: 9,900 and FDP: 16,100), but 
the numbers have grown by approximately 15 percent since its 
formation, making it the only party in the state on the rise. 
Of its 132 elected officials statewide, the vast majority sit on 
city councils.  The party also boasts a well structured 
organization with 52 local sub-districts.  Their strategy is to 
focus on local elections in 2009 as a means to solidify their 
base and prepare for the 2010 Landtag elections.  The press has 
reported that Zimmerman believes the party can enlarge its base 
in medium and large cities, drawing on disaffected SPD voters, 
particularly in the unions and in economically weaker regions 
like the Ruhr Valley.  German Confederation of Trade Unions 
(DGB) chairman in NRW Guntram Schneider indirectly confirmed 
this, telling the CG recently that many union leaders were 
attending Left Party speeches and events. 
 
The Left Finds a Voice in the Landtag, Already 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Although predecessors WASG and PDS separately obtained 
far less than the five percent needed to enter the state 
parliament in the 2005 state elections, the Left Party 
experienced its first major success soon after its formation, 
when independent deputy Ruediger Sagel (a former Green deputy) 
joined the party in late 2007, providing its first (and so far 
only) seat in the parliament.  Sagel told Pol/Econ Officer he 
joined the party because the Greens had become "too mainstream." 
 He has become prominent, in part because Green and SPD deputies 
use him as a conduit to voice some of their views. 
 
Future Prospects 
---------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Recent opinion polls show the Left Party winning 6-8 
percent of the NRW popular vote, if elections were held today. 
Many party leaders are optimistic about the party's prospects, 
given continued weakness in the state SPD leadership and 
discontent in the rank-and-file.  They also expect their results 
to be even higher because many voters do not express their true 
opinions to pollsters, as happened recently in Lower Saxony. 
They express confidence that the SPD will have to consider some 
form of cooperation after 2010 if it wants to replace the 
CDU-FDP coalition. 
 
SPD Does Not Foreclose Cooperation with the Left 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) In the past few months, SPD state parliamentary floor 
leader and SPD NRW chair Hannelore Kraft has publicly stated 
several times that in view of the emerging five-party political 
landscape, it would be "unwise" for her party to exclude a 
priori a coalition or cooperation with the Left Party, even if 
 
DUSSELDORF 00000017  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
she could not conceive of it at the moment due to the NRW Left 
Party's radical positions on various issues.  Kraft indicated to 
the CG that it was not clear in which direction the Left Party 
in NRW would develop and which of the wings (PDS or WASG) would 
dominate.  She said she was "appalled" by Zimmerman's lack of 
knowledge of basic economics, his support for nationalization of 
big industry, and his call for Germany's withdrawal from NATO 
and the EU.  Describing Detjen as more "pragmatic" and "closer 
to reality," she said no one could foresee the Left Party's 
positions in 2010.  Publicly, she has called Hesse SPD Chair 
Andrea Ypsilanti's campaign promise to desist from cooperation 
with the Left "a mistake," as she later had to break it. 
 
Comment 
------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU) It is much too early to speculate whether NRW could 
face a chaotic situation like that following the Hesse state 
elections in January.  Unlike Ypsilanti, Kraft has refused to 
preclude cooperation with the Left Party, although there is 
opposition within her party to such a move.  Based on current 
trends and barring major unforeseen developments, the party is 
likely to make it into the next Landtag, which could well 
complicate the formation of the next governing coalition.  Its 
presence in the Landtag, albeit by a lone parliamentarian, has 
already given the party a more formal and visible role in state 
politics.  Its participation in the next government would have 
negative implications for the United States. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) There appears to be debate within the NRW Left Party 
over its direction and policy platform.  Its leaders are 
currently more hard line than at the national level, but some of 
their views could soften over time.  It is not clear how strong 
the "moderates" are or how much they differ from the 
leadership's current policy line.  Membership, though growing 
fast, still lags well behind the FDP and Greens.  The party 
appears to be gaining primarily at the expense of disaffected 
SPD voters and sees itself on something of a roll, but faces an 
SPD that is increasingly fighting back and will not give up 
easily. 
 
¶9.  (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
BOYSE