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ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 111438Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9054
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY
RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 0721
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DUBLIN 000192 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ETRD EINV EAIR MOPPS MARR EI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR IRISH PRIME MINISTER'S ADDRESS TO 
CONGRESS 
 
REF: A. DUBLIN 188 
     ¶B. DUBLIN 186 
     ¶C. DUBLIN 178 
     ¶D. DUBLIN 170 
     ¶E. DUBLIN 169 
     ¶F. DUBLIN 166 
     ¶G. DUBLIN 114 
 
DUBLIN 00000192  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Thomas C. Foley; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (C) Prime Minister (Taoiseach, TEE-SHUCK) Bertie Ahern's 
address to a Joint Session of Congress on April 30 will be 
framed by the Northern Ireland peace process, Irish economic 
growth (the "Celtic Tiger"), Ireland's view of its place in 
the world, and Ahern's announcement that he will step down as 
Prime Minister on May 6, a bombshell he dropped on April 2 
(Ref F).  During his almost 11 years as Irish Prime Minister, 
Ahern has established policies that dovetail with U.S. 
interests, deepening and broadening the strong U.S.-Irish 
relationship.  Now, even as the very last days of his Prime 
Ministership descend upon him, he has stated repeatedly that 
the greatest honor of his political career lies yet ahead -- 
to address a Joint Session of the U.S. Congress.  End summary. 
 
---------------- 
The Ahern Legacy 
---------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On April 2, Bertie Ahern announced to a stunned 
nation that he would step down as Prime Minister and leader 
of the Fianna Fail party effective May 6 (Refs F and G). 
Despite this shock, Ireland is already beginning to sort out 
its next government.  On April 9, Deputy Prime 
Minister/Minister of Finance Brian Cowen was chosen as the 
next leader of Fianna Fail and, by virtue of being the leader 
of the largest party in the governing coalition, Ireland's 
next Prime Minister (Ref B).  Cowen is expected to assume his 
new duties on May 7, following a vote by the Irish 
Parliament. 
 
¶3.  (C) After nearly 11 years as Prime Minister, Ahern is 
leaving behind a formidable legacy.  In private meetings and 
in his speech to Congress, Ahern will likely touch upon the 
most important aspects of that legacy, including the Northern 
Irish Peace Process, Ireland's "Celtic Tiger" economic 
revival, Ireland's leadership role in Europe and on global 
development issues, and, of course, deepened and broadened 
U.S.-Ireland relations. 
 
---------------- 
Northern Ireland 
---------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Prime Minister Ahern has been widely hailed as one of 
the architects of the Northern Ireland peace process.  In his 
speech, he will highlight two important "next steps" in the 
process.  First, Ahern  will likely thank Congress and the 
President for U.S. support of the peace process over the 
years, especially since the Good Friday Agreement, which was 
brought into being in 1998 with U.S. Government help.  Ahern 
will also thank Congress for sustained U.S. economic support 
in the North and urge continued high-level U.S. Government 
engagement in the May 2008 USG-supported investment 
conference. 
 
¶5.  (C) Secondly, Ahern will press for strong U.S. Government 
support for the devolution of policing and justice from the 
British government to the Northern Ireland Assembly before 
the end of the year.  The Irish believe that implementation 
of the St. Andrews agreement continues to go well, with many 
bread and butter issues being resolved within the Northern 
Ireland Assembly and the basic power-sharing government 
governing better than many in Ireland expected.  North-South 
institutions, such as the North-South Ministerial Council and 
InterTradeIreland, are up and running to Irish satisfaction, 
and the Irish Government has pledged over $900 million for 
infrastructural links between Northern Ireland and Ireland. 
Ireland remains concerned, however, that the powers of 
policing and justice not remain under the direct control of 
the British Government for very much longer.  Ireland will 
look to the United States to use its influence with the UK 
and the key parties in the North to ensure that the 
devolution of policing and justice actually occurs as the 
next major step in the peace process. 
 
------------------ 
 
DUBLIN 00000192  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
The "Celtic Tiger" 
------------------ 
 
¶6.  (C) Ahern presided over the "Celtic Tiger's" dynamic, 
sustained economic growth during his eleven years at the 
helm.  Ireland's economy is closely tied to the economy of 
the U.S., as well as to American investment.  Over 600 U.S. 
firms established operations in Ireland; the stock of U.S. 
investment in the country is, in fact, significantly more 
than the U.S. combined total in the BRIC countries (Brazil, 
Russia, India, and China). 
 
¶7.  (C) Ireland is concerned that U.S. economic difficulties 
will reverberate negatively in Ireland.  As in the U.S., 
Ireland is experiencing slower growth, driven by a slowdown 
in the housing market, tightening credit, and inadequate 
infrastructure that has not kept pace with the growth of the 
"Celtic Tiger."  In his speech, we expect Ahern to reaffirm 
that Ireland's economic policies will remain staunchly 
pro-business and pro-American.  The foundation of Ireland's 
Celtic Tiger transformation has been low corporate tax rates, 
industrial peace, pro-investment policies, fiscal 
responsibility, and effective use of EU support funds.  He 
will undoubtedly call for increased levels of American 
investment in Ireland. 
 
--------------------- 
Ireland in Europe ... 
--------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) During the past eleven years, Ireland has assumed an 
increasingly greater leadership role in Europe and on certain 
global issues.  In many ways, Ireland and Ahern came of age 
during Ireland's widely praised 2004 EU presidency.  Most 
notably, Ahern and his team brought to conclusion the EU 
debate over its constitutional treaty, which eventually 
failed in Dutch and French referenda, and which was slightly 
modified and recast as the Lisbon Treaty. 
 
¶9.  (C) With plentiful jobs, Ireland has also become a magnet 
for inward immigration, attracting over 100,000 new arrivals 
since the accession of ten new EU Member States in 2004. 
Economic success has made Ireland a role model for the new EU 
members and a more confident diplomatic go-between for the 
United States and the EU, as personified by the EU Ambassador 
to the United States, former Irish Prime Minister John Bruton. 
 
¶10.  (C) Looming large on Europe's political horizon, most 
likely in June, is Ireland's referendum on whether to endorse 
the Lisbon Treaty.  As the only EU state holding such a 
referendum, Ireland has become a battleground for the future 
of the EU.  Ahern's Washington speech will be widely reported 
in Ireland and will be the last major speech of his political 
career.  We can expect Ahern to sound his support for the 
Lisbon Treaty in his remarks in Washington in an attempt to 
bolster the "yes" vote in Ireland and make clear Ireland's 
leading role in Europe (and, incidentally, position Ahern for 
the EU President job that would be created by the Lisbon 
Treaty). 
 
¶11.  (C) Ireland's EU membership facilitated another key 
aspect of Ahern's legacy: vastly improved relations between 
the UK and Ireland.  Much of the improvement in relations 
came about as a result of the Northern Ireland Peace Process. 
 Ahern and UK Prime Minster Tony Blair both arrived on the 
scene one month apart in 1997, and immediately agreed to take 
a huge risk by going for a deal in Northern Ireland.  The 
1998 Good Friday Agreement was the result (Ref A). 
 
¶12.  (C) Working from a solid basis of trust forged in the 
sometimes interminable Good Friday Agreement talks, Ahern and 
Blair were then able to take a very pragmatic approach over 
the next eleven years to resolve numerous outstanding 
bilateral issues.  From human rights to Kosovo to Burma, the 
UK and Ireland now share similar views on most international 
issues, and Ireland is no longer afraid to be seen as working 
in concert with the UK.  It is a mature, normal bilateral 
relationship, unimaginable even a decade ago.  Indeed, there 
is talk of a State visit to Ireland by the Queen in the near 
future. 
 
-------------------- 
... and in the World 
-------------------- 
 
¶13.  (C) Prime Minister Ahern is proud of the development of 
Ireland as a force to be reckoned with in international 
affairs.  Whether wielding its influence in EU or UN 
corridors, engaging in peacekeeping efforts, or providing 
humanitarian and development assistance overseas, Ireland has 
 
DUBLIN 00000192  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
become widely admired as a nation that "punches above its 
weight" in international affairs. 
 
¶14.  (C) In his speech, Ahern may call for increased 
cooperation on humanitarian and development assistance. 
Ireland aims to contribute 0.7 percent of GDP to overseas 
development assistance by 2012.  Africa is a particular 
focus.  The new Department of Foreign Affairs Conflict 
Resolution Unit has chosen East Timor as its first major 
conflict resolution effort.  Ahern is likely to praise the 
U.S. Government's initiatives on fighting HIV/AIDS, TB, and 
malaria, particularly in Africa. 
 
¶15.  (C) Ahern may speak about the U.S. and Ireland's common 
platform in promoting democracy and human rights, and in 
combating trafficking in persons.  Like the U.S., Ireland is 
a bastion of democracy and human rights.  Around the world 
(and in the EU and the UN), Ireland has joined the U.S. in 
criticizing undemocratic practices, for example, in Burma and 
Zimbabwe.  In the past year, Ireland has put measures in 
place to further criminalize trafficking in persons and 
provide assistance to victims of trafficking. 
 
¶16.  (C) Ahern will also probably highlight Ireland's 
peacekeeping tradition in his remarks.  The Irish Defense 
Forces have roughly 760 troops serving in multilateral 
peacekeeping missions in Kosovo, Chad, Bosnia, Afghanistan, 
and elsewhere.  Ireland is contributing 350-400 troops to the 
EU's ESDP mission to Chad, which is led by an Irish General, 
and sees this peacekeeping effort as contributing to the 
situation in adjacent Darfur.  The Irish Government prefers 
not to expand its military engagement in Afghanistan, though 
it will consider additional development and humanitarian 
assistance. 
 
¶17.  (C) Ahern may also highlight Ireland's constructive role 
on Kosovo.  Ireland has consistently worked within the EU to 
forge a common position on Kosovo's independence and 
supported the Ahtisaari Plan.  On February 28, 2008 Ireland 
recognized Kosovo's independence; the fourteenth nation in 
the world to do so.  It plans to continue its engagement in 
KFOR (for which it is the framework, or lead, nation and 
contributes 270 troops), contribute officers to the EU's ESDP 
police mission, and allocate substantial additional 
development and humanitarian assistance. 
 
¶18.  (C) hern is likely to express dismay at the level ofviolence in the Middle East, and urge Congress andthe 
President to use their offices to the best o their ability 
to make headway in the Middle EastPeac Process.   Ireland 
supports the internatioal community in calling for Hamas to 
renounce vilence and to recognize Israel's right to exist. 
t supports the two-state solution.  While concerne about 
Hamas' rocket attacks on Isael, Ireland also believes that 
Israel's armed response has been disproportionately fierce. 
 
¶19.  (C) Ahern will likely stress the responsibility of all 
nations to address the threat of climate change.  Although 
the Irish public and media criticize the United States for 
remaining outside the Kyoto Protocol, Ireland's rapid 
economic growth has made it difficult for the country to meet 
its own Kyoto commitments.  Under the Protocol, Ireland 
pledged to reduce emissions to 13 percent above the 1990 
levels by 2012, but emissions now stand at 25 percent above 
the 1990 threshold.  In this context, the Government has 
welcomed U.S. Government proposals for a cooperative approach 
to climate change.  Embassy Dublin is working on bilateral 
initiatives focused on ocean/wave energy, methane capture, 
and clean coal technologies. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
U.S.-Ireland Relations:  Broader and Deeper 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶20.  (C) Throughout his time in office, Ahern has assiduously 
worked to enrich the U.S.-Irish dialogue beyond the key 
issues of Northern Ireland and immigration.  In their 2004 EU 
presidency roles, Ahern and then Foreign Minister Brian Cowen 
were justifiably proud of their efforts to improve the 
transatlantic relationship that had been badly frayed by 
debates over the 2003 invasion of Iraq.  Ahern is also 
pleased that the St. Patrick's Day Shamrock ceremony is now 
much more about the bilateral relationship and less about 
Northern Ireland.  Under Ahern's direction, Ireland has 
agreed to resettle Cuban refugees currently at Guantanamo 
Bay.  Ireland is participating enthusiastically in 
negotiations for the establishment of full pre-clearance 
facilities in Ireland for both commercial and general 
aviation flights to the U.S., helping us to better secure our 
borders. 
 
DUBLIN 00000192  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶21.  (C) Despite not agreeing with our approach on Iraq, 
Ahern has been behind Ireland's steadfast support for the 
U.S. in permitting U.S. military transits at Shannon and 
Dublin Airports (347,000 troops in 2005) that backstop U.S. 
actions, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan.  This policy has 
been deeply unpopular -- the Irish Government has rebuffed 
repeated calls from opposition parliamentarians and the 
public to investigate the alleged use of Shannon Airport for 
terrorist rendition flights, citing earlier U.S. assurances 
that no such practice involves Ireland.  Yet, there has been 
no interruption in U.S. access.  Ahern may note this policy 
as part of Ireland's contribution to the war on terror. 
 
¶22. (C) The Irish Government continues to consult and lobby 
with Congress and Irish-American groups on behalf of Irish 
residing illegally in the U.S., variously estimated at 
between 5,000 and 50,000.  A special unit of the Department 
of Foreign Affairs, set up in 2006 to assist the Irish 
Diaspora, assists Irish Ambassador to the U.S. Michael 
Collins in this endeavor.  While the Irish Government 
understands that Irish illegal aliens will not be dealt with 
separately from comprehensive U.S. immigration reform, Ahern 
takes this emotive domestic issue personally.  He is likely 
to express his deep concern for these illegals and may ask 
Congress to move to regularize their status as soon as 
possible.  He may also push for approval of a special visa 
category, such as the Australian E-3 visa or a modified J-1 
visa, which would enable Irish citizens to live and work in 
U.S. for durations longer than currently available under 
existing visa regulations. 
 
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Comment 
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¶23.  (C) Over the years, Ahern has established policies that 
frequently dovetail with U.S. interests.  While this is most 
evident in the growth of the "Celtic Tiger," there are many 
global issues where Irish and American interests and policies 
have coincided under his stewardship -- and, of course, he 
contributed immensely to peace in Northern Ireland.  Ahern 
may well move on to greater things in the future; the 
Presidency of the European Union has been mentioned. 
However, even as the very last days of his Prime Ministership 
descend upon him, he says that the greatest honor of his 
career lies yet ahead -- to address a Joint Session of the 
U.S. Congress. 
FOLEY