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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DAMASCUS 000251 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PARIS FOR JORDAN; LONDON FOR TSOU 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SY IZ
SUBJECT: PREMATURE RUMORS OF ASIF SHAWKAT'S DEMISE 
 
REF: DAMASCUS 142 
 
Classified By: CDA Michael Corbin, per 1.4 b,d. 
 
¶1.  (S) Summary:  Widespread reports that Syrian Military 
Intelligence Chief Asif Shawkat is under house arrest and 
that Shawkat's wife (and Bashar Asad's sister) Bushra al-Asad 
is trying to flee the country likely reflect Bashar's 
successful moves to limit Shawkat's influence.  While our 
sources suspect both stories are untrue and blame the 
external opposition for stirring the rumor mill to weaken 
Bashar, Shawkat's star definitely appears to be on the wane. 
End Summary 
 
------------------------------- 
The Rumor Mill Working Overtime 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  Many Embassy contacts point to a report published 
by opposition website "Free Syria"  as the original source of 
a number of news stories reporting Shawkat's house arrest. 
Sources here also contend that former Syrian VP (and now 
leader of the expat opposition group National Salvation 
Front) Abdel Halim Khaddam has attempted to weaken Bashar by 
repeating this rumor during recent anti-SARG interviews on 
SkyTV and Lebanese TV station al Moustaqbal in which he 
alleged Shawkat's house arrest and predicted Shawkat would 
suffer the same fate as now deceased head of Syrian 
intelligence operations in Lebanon, Ghazi Kanaan. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Opposition website "al Haqiqa" published an April 
6 story reporting that President Asad would replace Shawkat 
with SMI deputy Ali Yunis, a story similar to a "Debka" 
website report on Bashar's decision to fire Shawkat.  Saudi 
daily "Sharq al Awsaat" reported Shawkat's house arrest; 
according to this version, Shawkat overstepped his authority 
in negotiating (via the Turks) with the USG about withdrawing 
Syria's support for Hizballah in exchange for agreement that 
the International Tribunal would not indict senior Syrian 
officials.  Another version reported by the French-based 
opposition website "Ihraar Suriya" (the Free People of Syria) 
alleged that Shawkat had been implicated in the assassination 
plot against Hizballah leader Imad Mugniyah and that 
Hizballah and Iran were demanding his prosecution. 
 
¶4.  (C) Another rumor circulating in diplomatic circles 
(perhaps reflecting wishful thinking) is that Bashar has 
decided to turn Shawkat over to the International Tribunal 
for the murder for former Lebanese PM Rafiq Hariri in 
exchange for immunity. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Bushra al-Asad to Flee the Country? 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  Different stories regarding Shawkat's arrest also 
allege that his wife (and Bashar older sister) has or is 
attempting to leave the country and seek political asylum in 
possibly France or a Gulf country such as the UAE.  The 
Kuwaiti daily "al-Siyasiya," for example,  reported that 
Shawkat allegedly told his wife, Busra, to leave Syria with 
the couple's children, and she had applied for asylum in 
France (later denied by the French government, according to 
an April 13 story in "al Hayat.")  According to a few 
contacts here, however, Bushra remains in Syria and her 
children are still attending school.  A French Embassy 
contact told us that Bushra had been to Paris earlier in the 
year on a routine shopping excursion but there was no truth 
to stories that she had sought political asylum. 
 
---------------------- 
Rumors Discounted Here 
---------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  In what many are viewing as a SARG response to the 
growing wave of rumors, an April 10 Syrian TV evening 
newscast showed footage of Shawkat attending a military 
academy graduation ceremony. The footage highlighted Shawkat 
wearing his military uniform and appearing with Minister of 
Defense Hasan Turkumani, who delivered the key note address. 
Meanwhile, pro-government Syrian website "Shafaf al-Sham" ran 
a story describing Shawkat as the "most powerful man in 
Syria" and reporting government plans to appoint Shawkat as 
Vice President for National Security Affairs.  (Note:  This 
position was a job briefly held by Bashar's paternal uncle 
Rifa't al-Asad before being exiled by the late Hafez al 
Asad.) 
 
¶7.  (S)  Most of our contacts heavily discount reports of 
Shawkat's dismissal and house arrest.  Well connected 
As-Safir correspondent Ziad Haydar called the reports 
"rubbish."   Ihsan Sanker, a longtime Embassy contact who 
claims occassional access to Asad family members, reported 
April 10 seeing Shawkat at the funeral of a mutual friend a 
week earlier.  According to Sanker, mutual acquaintances say 
they have seen Shawkat "regularly" over the last month. 
 
----------------------------- 
Shawkat's Star on the Decline? 
----------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (S) Describing Shawkat as "dejected and withdrawn," 
Sanker said Shawkat was "not even trying to hide" his 
unhappiness over his continuing loss of influence.  The 
assassination of Hizballah luminary Imad Mugniyeh led to a 
series of accusations between SMI and GID, with the outcome 
coming out in GID's favor, Sanker reported.  Additionally, 
Sanker said he had heard Shawkat's portfolio had been pared 
down to military issues, while Bashar's cousin Hafez Makhluf 
had all but taken over the national security portfolio. 
As-Safir correspondent Haydar reported he had heard the same 
thing, saying Bashar had recently further marginalized 
Shawkat's national security role. 
 
¶9.  (S)  Orient Center Director and MFA Advisor Samir al-Taki 
told us recently that Shawkat and  GID chief Ali Mamluk had 
exchanged mutual recriminations of blame and negligence in 
the wake of the Mugniyeh assassination (reftel).  In an 
attempt to discredit GID, Shawkat ordered SMI to question a 
number of Syrians with ties to France and the U.S. (including 
al-Taki) under possible suspicion of involvement in the 
Mugniyeh affair.  In the meantime, al-Taqi added, the GID had 
assumed primary responsibility for investigating the Mugniyeh 
killing, under the overall direction of Bashar's cousin, 
Hafez Makhluf, a prominent GID officer.  Against the backdrop 
of these recent events, an ongoing reorganization of security 
organizations has made it difficult to determine who was up 
and who was down, al-Taqi explained.  Separate reporting and 
diplomatic circles point to Mamluk's rise and Shawkat's 
relative retreat. But Al-Taqi cast doubt on reports of 
Shawkat's removal, saying "we've heard such reports before," 
only to see Shawkat maintain his position as a key insider. 
 
------------------------- 
Shawkat in the Dog House? 
------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (S)  A UK-Syrian business contact with low level regime 
ties told us April 13 that Shawkat's problems with Bashar had 
come to head before the Arab League Summit.  According to 
this source, SMI arrested a Saudi national suspected of 
involvement in the Mugniyeh assassination.  This Saudi died 
in SMI custody, complicating Bashar's already strained 
relations with the Saudi royal family.  A variant of this 
rumor which has appeared in the press was that the deceased 
Saudi was a diplomat working in the Saudi Embassy.  Our 
contact discounted this rumor because "not even Shawkat would 
be stupid enough" to apprehend someone with diplomatic 
immunity. 
 
¶11.  (S)  Comment:  It seems highly unlikely that Bashar 
would arrest Shawkat unless he perceived a direct challenge 
to his authority, especially at a time when Syrians are 
openly talking about the possibility of war with Israel and 
worsening economic conditions that require greater regime 
cohesion.  Moreover, we strongly doubt Bashar feels pressured 
enough on Lebanon to be preparing to turn over Shawkat to the 
Tribunal.  Rather, we believe Bashar's continuing efforts to 
erode Shawkat's influence reflect his perception of Shawkat 
as a potential threat that must be managed.  Separately, we 
assess that Bashar is most comfortable with Bushra here in 
Syria under his thumb and that he would not cause her to 
flee.  We also believe that unless family matters worsen, 
Bushra prefers to reside in Syria, particularly given her 
desire to stay close to her elderly mother. 
 
CORBIN