VZCZCXRO0078
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0061/01 0921110
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 011110Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2354
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000061 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2018 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB ASEC KDEM GV
SUBJECT: COMMITTEE DE SUIVI TO REPORT TO CONTE THIS WEEK 
 
REF: A. CONAKRY 0050 
 
     ¶B. CONAKRY 0029 
     ¶C. CONAKRY 0164 
 
Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  According to one union leader, the 
Committee de Suivi will present a summary of its findings to 
President Conte this week.  In addition, the Committee's 
delegation will present a new restructuring decree and ask 
that the president sign it.  If the president rejects the 
Committee's recommendations and the decree, contact says the 
unions will talk about setting a date for a strike.  Despite 
these comments, it is unclear whether the population would 
back the unions.  At the same time, economic pressures 
continue to mount, contributing to growing popular 
frustration.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) Poloff met with Louis M'Bemba Soumah, Secretary 
General of Guinea's teachers' union (SLECG) and Deputy 
Director of the Union of Guinean Workers (USTG), on March 31. 
 Although a separate union, SLECG is also a member of the 
broader USTG union.  Dr. Ibrahima Fofana (USTG) and Mme Serah 
Rabiatou Diallo (CNTG) tend to take the local spotlight with 
respect to union leadership, but Soumah is an important 
behind the scenes actor, and an active participant in union 
negotiations.  However, he is widely seen as too outspoken 
and provocative by his colleagues.  Several of them have 
commented to POL LES that Soumah is too loud during 
negotiations and does not know when to sit down and be quiet. 
 He is one of the older union leaders and is widely seen as a 
possible alcoholic.  Despite these issues, Soumah is well 
connected within the unions and privy to extensive 
negotiations.  His colleagues may not necessarily agree with 
his tactics, but they tend to agree with the underlying 
principles. 
 
-------------------------- 
GOING TO SEE THE PRESIDENT 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Soumah said that he had left his colleagues to 
continue negotiations with Guinea's republican institutions 
(the National Assembly, the Supreme Court, and the Economic 
and Social Council) in order to meet with Poloff, but planned 
to return later.  He echoed Rabiatou's comments of last week 
(reftel A), saying that March 31 was not a deadline for 
resuming a nationwide labor strike, but rather, a deadline 
for the Committee de Suivi (reftel B) to complete its review 
of the January 2007 Accords.  Soumah said that the Committee 
has almost completed its work and he anticipates that a 
delegation will visit President Conte this week in order to 
present its report.  (COMMENT.  Guinee24.com also reported on 
April 1 that the Committee will see the president.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
¶4.  (C) According to Soumah, the delegation will present 
Conte with a draft restructuring decree that will clearly 
delineate the powers attributed to the prime minister and his 
cabinet members, and include a provision specifying that the 
PM holds the right to appoint his cabinet as well as a host 
of other administrative positions.  In addition, Soumah said 
that the Committee will present a report on its work as well 
as the various concessions that the parties have tentatively 
agreed to.  "We will ask him to sign the decree," Soumah 
said, "and for the rest, we will ask him to agree with our 
recommendations." 
 
¶5.  (C) As for the actual delegation, Soumah said that it 
will be comprised of the heads of all three republican 
institutions, the Council of Elders, religious leaders, and 
one or two union representatives.  He said that the unions 
would probably send Rabiatou, although they had not yet 
agreed.  He noted that the choice of Rabiatou is related to 
the fact that she is a woman and likely to be less 
threatening to the president.  "We are sending a very 
respectful delegation," Soumah said as he emphasized that the 
group will include respected elders and religious leaders. 
"We are sending them in the African way; the elders will tell 
him that they are coming as his fathers and he must respect 
them because they will speak the truth." 
 
-------------- 
ALL OR NOTHING 
-------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Poloff asked what would happen if the president 
refused to sign the new restructuring decree or did not 
accept the Committee's recommendations.  Soumah said that if 
 
CONAKRY 00000061  002 OF 003 
 
 
the outcome is positive, there will be no problem, "but if 
there is any blockage, we will sit down and choose a date for 
a strike."  When Poloff pushed for clarification, Soumah said 
that the president must agree to sign the decree and fully 
accept the rest of the proposal. 
 
-------------------------------- 
LOOKING FOR ECONOMIC CONCESSIONS 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) With respect to the Committee's specific findings and 
recommendations, Soumah said that they still want basic 
problems addressed, such as lack of access to water and 
electricity, and economic relief.  He said that they will ask 
for rice prices to be "regularized," that exports be 
suspended for six months in order to bring down local prices, 
and that certain economic concessions be offered in exchange 
for fuel price increases.  When Poloff stressed that rising 
commodity prices are a worldwide phenomenon, and that the 
negative effects have already been felt in neighboring 
countries, Soumah said that they know the problem is 
international prices, but the government still needs to offer 
economic relief. 
 
¶8.  (C) At one point, Soumah said that Guinea's prices are 
grossly inflated, and then later said that the borders have 
to be closed because people are coming to Guinea to buy goods 
at lower prices.  Poloff said that this kind of thinking 
effectively goes against every basic economic principle. 
Soumah agreed, but said that the situation is different for 
Guinea because "people are hungry."  Poloff also pointed out 
that freezing exports had already been tried under the 
original January 27 Accords.  Soumah said that the government 
only effectively implemented that policy for two months, and 
that prices actually went down for that period of time. 
Soumah repeatedly mentioned the imminent fuel price increases 
(septel), saying that increased costs for fuel will force up 
prices on nearly all other goods.  "The people will be 
strangled by the prices," he said. 
 
¶9.  (C) Again emphasizing the need for the government to 
offer economic concessions in exchange for taking away the 
fuel subsidy program, Soumah said that the unions had met 
several times with the visiting IMF team and the Ministry of 
Finance over the past few days in order to discuss possible 
solutions.  According to Soumah, the IMF and Finance agreed 
that the government could implement reduced transportation 
fares for certain categories of commuters (such as students), 
suspend the customs duty on rice imports, and increase 
stipends for university students.  "What we really want is 
salary increases, but we cannot get that right now because of 
the IMF program," he said, although he added that everyone 
had agreed to hold an annual discussion on salaries in order 
to discuss appropriate increases. 
 
---------------------- 
NEED LEGAL CHANGES TOO 
---------------------- 
 
¶10.  (C) Poloff asked whether the Committee plans to 
recommend any changes to Guinea's constitution or legal code. 
 Soumah said that the report will include a specific 
recommendation to the National Assembly to legally 
institutionalize the prime minister's position.  "I 
personally told them (the National Assembly) that they have 
never done their job and now is the time to rehabilitate 
themselves and do what they were elected to do," Soumah said. 
 However, Soumah said that any legal changes should be done 
in consultation with the political parties.  Soumah 
characterized this provision as a "medium-term" goal. 
 
------------------------------------ 
STILL WANT JUSTICE ON MAMADOU SYLLAH 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶11.  (C) When asked whether the Committee will address the 
pending corruption case against Mamadou Syllah, Soumah 
responded with a resounding yes.  He said that the unions 
understand that the criminal case has been dismissed, but 
they still expect the case to proceed as a civil case. 
 
------------------------------ 
MORE WORKERS SWITCHING TO USTG 
------------------------------ 
 
¶12.  (C) In reference to a recently published press interview 
with Soumah, Poloff asked him about his comments about a 
growing divide between the USTG and the CNTG.  Soumah said 
that the CNTG is rapidly losing members because they are 
 
CONAKRY 00000061  003 OF 003 
 
 
shifting their allegiance to the USTG.  According to Soumah, 
many workers see the CNTG as "too old fashioned" and that it 
is not accurately representing worker interests.  He said 
that workers have the right to choose which union they want 
to represent them, which is what is happening.  However, he 
emphasized that Unions-Intersyndicale, as an organization, 
remains strong, and the CNTG will continue to play its 
leadership role within that organization. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶13.  (C) The unions are not currently calling for a strike, 
but they seem to have fairly defined expectations of what 
should happen over the next few weeks to avoid one.  Despite 
continued threats, it is not clear whether the population 
would actually support the unions if they do call a strike. 
Economic frustration continues to mount, especially now that 
the promised fuel price increases have gone into effect, 
which could generate popular support.  At the same time, 
people seem to be confused about what they would be striking 
against.  They are frustrated both with Conte and with 
Kouyate, and there is some sense that a labor strike would be 
a public statement of support for one or the other. 
 
¶14.  (C) If Conte reacts as he traditionally has when the 
Committee de Suivi comes to see him, it is likely that he 
will resist signing the proposed restructuring decree 
especially if it clearly strengthens the PM's powers at the 
expense of his own.  In the same vein, getting the National 
Assembly to pass a law institutionalizing the prime 
minister's position is likely to generate resistance, both 
within the National Assembly and when it eventually makes its 
way to the president to be signed into law.  On the economic 
side, many of the unions' demands are illogical.  When Soumah 
was talking about prices in Guinea, he repeatedly 
contradicted himself, and what he was saying did not make 
sense.  His comments were very similar to those of Fofana's 
just a few weeks ago (reftel C), suggesting that the unions 
do not have a good understanding of the fundamental economic 
problems facing the country.  END COMMENT. 
CARTER