VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHCG #0119/01 0921038
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 011038Z APR 08
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1584
INFO RUEHCG/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000119 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
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E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON IN
SUBJECT: KARNATAKA HEADED FOR MAY POLLS 
 
REF: Chennai 30 and previous 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  The South India state of Karnataka will hold 
elections for its legislative assembly before May 28, according to a 
statement India's Chief Election Commissioner made to reporters on 
March 28 in Chennai.  The precise date of the elections has not been 
set, but earlier reports suggest that they will take place between 
May 9 and 18.  The state has been administered by a New 
Delhi-appointed governor since the collapse of the state's elected 
government in November 2007.  This six-month term of "President's 
Rule" will end on May 28.  All three of the state's major parties 
have told us in recent weeks that they expect to do well enough to 
form the next government.  It is dificult to say whether these 
predictions are based on wishful thinking, pre-election bluster or 
realisitic assessment, but at least one of these parties is likely 
to be disappointed.  End Summary. 
 
Karnataka's election chief makes announcement 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) India's Chief Election Commissioner told reporters on March 
28 in Chennai that elections in Karnataka will take place before May 
¶28.  He also told the reporters that he would announce the precise 
dates of the polls "within a couple of days."  Evasively sourced 
press reports suggest that they will take place between May 9 and 
18, and a high-level Karnataka bureaucrat told us to expect the 
elections to take place around the second week of May.  (The law 
requires that the official poll dates be announced at least 30 days 
before the elections take place.) 
 
¶3. (U) Karnataka has been administered by the state's Governor since 
the collapse of the state's elected government in November 2007. 
This six-month term of "President's Rule," approved by the central 
government and parliament, will end on May 28.  President's Rule can 
be extended for additional six-month periods, if approved by 
parliament (reftels). 
 
Karnataka election commission revises electoral rolls 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
¶4. (U) The Karnataka State Chief Electoral Officer announced on 
March 14 completion of "delimitation" of all 224 assembly 
constituencies in the state (a process analogous to redistricting in 
the U.S. political context).  This process was completed much more 
rapidly than some observers had originally predicted, taking only 
weeks instead of months. 
 
Congress resigns itself to early elections 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) Reluctant initially to face the electorate in May, the 
Congress Party's leadership in Karnataka now seems resigned to early 
elections.  One state leader criticized the methods used during the 
delimitation process but admitted that challenging it in the courts 
would be difficult.  He also said, however, that elections would end 
President's Rule in the state, which was unpopular and a liability 
for Congress.  Another state party leader told us that he expects 
Congress to head the state's next government.  (Comment:  The 
Congress Party nationally, however, has been weakened by an 
onslaught of bad news on inflation and financial markets as well as 
a pounding from the BJP on the right and the Communist parties on 
issues as varied as the state of the agricultural sector, Tibet, 
terrorism, and national security.  The party is not keen to go to 
the polls in such an unfavorable environment.  End comment.) 
 
BJP hopes to win majority 
------------------------- 
¶6. (SBU) A former state Industries Minister and BJP leader told us 
firmly that the party will win a majority in the next assembly.  He 
ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition government, stating 
adamantly that his party would be in the opposition if it failed to 
win an absolute majority of seats in the state's legislative 
assembly.  (Comment:  The state party also believes it has the 
sympathy of many voters due to its betrayal at the hands of its 
former coalition partner, the JD(S), see reftels.  End comment.) 
 
JD(S) also upbeat 
----------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Similarly, the Janata Dal (Secular), JD(S) -- the state's 
other main party -- sees bright prospects in recent political 
developments.  One of the party's key leaders told us that the JD(S) 
would benefit from the delimitation process, but remained vague on 
the details.  He also said that the party has strengthened its base 
in the rural areas of the state during the 20 months that H.D. 
Kumaraswamy was the Chief Minister.  He opined that the recent 
inroads in the state by Mayawati's BSP would draw votes away from 
both the BJP and Congress, putting the JD(S) in an excellent 
position to win a plurality of legislative assembly seats. 
 
BSP:  up-and-coming, but not yet 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) P.G.R. Sindhia, the Karnatka-based national General 
Secretary for the BSP, told us that his party would play only a 
 
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minor role in this election.  He noted, however, that the 
delimitation process raised the number of seats reserved for lower 
castes in Karnataka's 225-member assembly from 35 to 51, increasing 
the opportunity for the party to play a more important role in the 
state.  He predicted that the party may only get 15 seats in the 
upcoming elections but that it will pursue a strategy in Karnataka 
similar to what it has pursued elsewhere (creating coalitions of 
lower-caste and high-caste voters), which will result in the party 
becoming a serious electoral force in the state in the next election 
cycle.  (Comment:  The BSP has failed to make any inroads in other 
states after its stunning election triumph in Uttar Pradesh last 
May.  Its short-term prospects seem dim in Karnataka but, as it did 
in Gujarat, it may attract enough lower-caste votes to tip the 
balance against the Congress Party in some constitutencies.  End 
comment.) 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) For the first time in months, all of the relevant political 
actors seem to agree on the next step in Karnataka's political 
future, namely that elections will occur in May, and the 
announcement of the Chief Election Commissioner -- the country's 
highest authority on election matters -- makes this clear.  The lack 
of reliable polling data, however, prevents analysts from doing any 
more than guessing about the results of the upcoming elections. 
That is not stopping the state's political leaders from waxing 
poetic about their chances for electoral success.  Given that the 
BJP has been pushing hard for elections as soon as possible while 
Congress has been doing its best to delay them, however, it seems 
that the BJP is more confident about its prospects. 
 
¶10. (SBU) The eyes of India's political-watchers are now on 
Karnataka.  After suffering crushing losses in Gujarat, Himachal and 
humbling defeats in Nagaland, Tripura and Meghalaya, the Congress 
Party is looking for some opportunity to revive itself before 
national elections.  Another loss for the Congress Party to add to 
its string of defeats in 2007 and 2008 would be demoralizing for the 
party's supporters.  A win for the BJP, however, would further add 
to its national momentum. 
 
¶11. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi. 
 
HOPPER