VZCZCXRO1902
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHBJ #1697/01 1211134
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 301134Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7025
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 001697 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2033 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KIFR CH
SUBJECT: TIBET: SCHOLARS PRAISE DECISION TO RESTART CONTACT 
WITH DALAI LAMA, BUT EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW 
 
REF: BEIJING 1618 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor 
Aubrey Carlson.  Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) China's decision to reopen talks with the Dalai 
Lama's representatives was largely a result of 
international pressure, Beijing University Sociology 
Professor Ma Rong (protect), a leading expert on 
Tibetan social issues, told PolOff.  Both sides are 
under pressure to show some results at the talks, but 
progress will be extremely difficult to achieve, he 
suggested.  For any progress to occur, Ma predicted, 
the Dalai Lama will need to compromise on his idea of 
"greater Tibet."  Similarly, Beijing-based scholars at 
the Government-sponsored Tibetology Research Center 
described China's decision to agree to consultations 
as a pragmatic step in response to international 
opinion.  They stressed that the talks remain in a 
preliminary stage.  In line with Government 
statements, they put the burden for achieving progress 
squarely on the Dalai Lama's shoulders.  Given the 
wide gulf separating the two sides, these contacts do 
not expect breakthroughs, but still express hope the 
restoration of contact can help reduce tensions.  End 
Summary. 
 
"International Pressure A Big Factor" 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Beijing University Sociology Professor Ma Rong 
(protect), who is a leading expert on Tibetan social 
issues, said China's decision to restart contact with 
the Dalai Lama's representatives was largely a result 
of international pressure.  China's leaders, Ma told 
PolOff April 29, were taken aback, not only by the 
scale of rioting in Tibetan areas, but also by the 
unified international reaction and calls for dialogue. 
The Chinese leadership realized that, in light of the 
Dalai Lama's clear statements against violence and in 
support of the Beijing Games, their refusal to talk 
was making China appear like the obstinate party in 
the eyes of the international community. 
 
¶3. (C) Ma predicted that, as before, the Communist 
Party's United Front Work Department will play the 
lead role in interacting with the Dalai Lama's 
representatives.  However, Ma said, China may involve 
new, higher-level officials given the gravity of 
recent events.  Both sides are under pressure to show 
some results at the talks, but progress will be 
extremely difficult to achieve.  For any progress to 
occur, Ma predicted, the Dalai Lama will need to 
compromise on his idea of "greater Tibet" (i.e., that 
all Tibetan areas be included in a future autonomous 
Tibetan region) which, Ma said, is an absolute non- 
starter with Beijing.  Furthermore, China will seek a 
clearer and more concrete explanation from the Dalai 
Lama about what he means by "true autonomy."  Making 
Tibet an independent territory "like Hong Kong" is 
also unrealistic, Ma argued.  Ma expressed hope that, 
if the discussions go well, authorities in Tibetan 
areas will become more tolerant of displays of 
religious reverence for the Dalai Lama (e.g., 
displaying his picture in temples and homes).  For the 
near future, Ma said, a simple relaxation of tensions 
is the most that can be hoped for. 
 
"Continuation of Existing Policy" 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Three scholars at the China Tibetology Research 
Center, who met with PolOff as a group April 28, 
characterized the Chinese Government's decision as a 
"pragmatic" move, but stressed that it does not 
represent a break from past policy.  Bi Hua, the 
Center's Vice Director General, told PolOff that China 
has faced calls from many countries, including the 
United States, to restart dialogue.  However, Bi Hua 
said the talks that are about to take place should be 
considered a continuation of the process China began 
in 1978, when contacts first began between the Chinese 
leadership and the Dalai Lama's representatives. 
(Note:  This line is in full conformity with the 
official line on the Chinese offer of talks, namely 
that it represents the Chinese Government's consistent 
policy.)  Lian Xiangmin, another Center scholar, said 
the Chinese Government is going against public opinion 
by reopening talks, noting that Internet bloggers have 
 
BEIJING 00001697  002 OF 002 
 
 
been sharply critical of the decision.  That China's 
leadership is agreeing to contact despite the negative 
public reaction, Lian claimed, shows Beijing's 
"sincerity." 
 
"Contact" Not the Same as "Dialogue" 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (C) Lian and Bi Hua also noted that the terminology 
the Chinese Government is using to describe the talks 
is significant.  The Xinhua News Agency release, they 
observed, says China will engage in "contact" (jie 
chu) and "exchange views" (cuo shang) with 
representatives of the Dalai Lama.  The Chinese 
Government is avoiding terms like "dialogue" (dui hua) 
to highlight the preliminary nature of the 
interaction.  The two sides are still trying to 
understand each other's positions, Bi Hua said. 
Nevertheless, she continued, the upcoming 
consultations will allow both sides to raise new 
issues related to recent events.  The Chinese side, 
she predicted, will use the occasion to enlist the 
Dalai Lama's help in stopping further "disruptions" to 
the Olympics.  Tanzen Lhundup, Director of the 
Center's Institute of Sociology and Economics, said 
the Dalai Lama can ensure progress by taking measures 
to stop additional violence in Tibetan regions and to 
distance himself further from hard-line pro- 
independence groups like the Tibetan Youth Congress. 
Though Bi Hua, Lian Xiangmin, and Tanzen Lhundup do 
not expect any breakthroughs, all said they were glad 
to see the two sides reengage.  "Contact," Lian said, 
"is still better than no contact." 
PICCUTA