VZCZCXYZ0005
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHDS #0867/01 0920838
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 010838Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0095
INFO RUEHAE/AMEMBASSY ASMARA 2424
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 8965
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 3442
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 3129
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 4218
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 3061
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 6418
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7315
RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHDC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL//CCJ2/CCJ5/CCJS//
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 000867 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, DAS AF JSWAN, AF/E, AF/PDPA, OES, 
A/S PRM SAUERBREY, AND PRM/AFR 
AFR/AA KALMQUIST, LKELLEY, CTHOMPSON, BDUNFORD 
DCHA/AA MHESS, GGOTTLIEB 
DCHA/OFDA KLUU, ACONVERY, CCHAN, PMORRIS, KCHANNELL 
DCHA/FFP JBORNS, PMOHAN, SANTHONY, PBERTOLIN 
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD 
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN, RTILSWORTH, AND LPANASUK 
NAIROBI FOR OFDA/ECARO JMYER, GPLATT, RFFPO NCOX, USAID/EA 
ROME FOR AMBASSADOR, OHA, HSPANOS 
BRUSSELS FOR USEU PBROWN 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH, RMA 
USUN FOR TMALY 
NSC FOR PMARCHAN 
 
AIDAC 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID PHUM SENV EAGR PGOV ET
SUBJECT: CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR ETHIOPIA PASTORAL AREAS 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  THE FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM NETWORK (FEWSNET) FROM MARCH 
10TH THROUGH THE 18TH, CONDUCTED A CONTINGENCY PLANNING WORKSHOP 
UTILIZING THE HOUSEHOLD ECONOMY APPROACH (HEA) TO PREDICT OUTCOMES 
FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A POOR SHORT RAINY SEASON IN ETHIOPIA'S 
MAIN PASTORAL AREAS.  RESULTS FROM THE WORKSHOP INDICATE THAT, 
UNLESS SIGNIFICANT AND WELL-DISTRIBUTED RAINS BEGIN IMMEDIATELY, 
VULNERABLE PASTORALIST AND AGRO-PASTORALIST HOUSEHOLDS IN SOMALI, 
OROMIYA, SNNPR, AND AFAR REGIONS WILL SOON FACE SIGNIFICANT SURVIVAL 
AND LIVELIHOOD THRESHOLD GAPS. THIS INCLUDES THE CONFLICT AFFECTED 
OGADEN AREAS. 
 
¶2.  THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA'S (FDRE) NATIONAL 
METEROLOGY AGENCY (NMA) AND FEWSNET HAVE ALREADY PROVIDED EARLY 
WARNING FOR THE PROBABILITY OF POOR SHORT (GU/GANNA/BELG) RAINS WITH 
THE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE WHOLE OF EASTERN ETHIOPIA IN THE COMING 
MONTHS (MARCH-MAY). FOR PARTS OF OROMIYA AND SOMALI REGIONS, THIS 
WILL BE THE THIRD POOR SEASON IN SUCCESSION. POOR SHORT RAINS WILL 
HAVE THE GREATEST AND MOST IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON PASTORALISTS IN AFAR, 
SOMALI, OROMIYA AND SNNP REGIONS. THESE AREAS ARE KNOWN FOR THEIR 
HIGH VULNERABILITY TO DROUGHT.  DUE TO HIGH LEVEL OF VULNERABILITY, 
LEAD TIMES BETWEEN RAIN FAILURE AND THE ONSET OF EMERGENCY 
CONDITIONS CAN BE RELATIVELY SHORT.  EFFECTIVE CONTINGENCY PLANNING 
AND RAPID INTERVENTION ARE ESSENTIAL BOTH TO PRESERVE LIVELIHOODS 
AND SAVE LIVES. 
 
----------------------------------- 
JOINT CONTINGENCY PLANNING EXERCISE 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  FEWSNET, WITH FUNDING SUPPORT FROM USAID, ORGANIZED A WORKSHOP 
FROM THE MARCH 10 THROUGH 18TH THAT BROUGHT TOGETHER EXPERTS FROM 
ALL FOUR REGIONS WITH PASTORALIST COMMUNITIES TO DEVELOP 2-3 
SCENARIOS OF LIKELY NEEDS IN THE EVENT OF A SHORT RAIN FAILURE. 
REPRESENTATIVES FROM GOVERNMENT, NON-GOVERNMENTAL, AND INTERNATIONAL 
ORGANIZATIONS INCLUDING SAVE THE CHILDREN UK, SAVE THE CHILDREN US, 
CARE, FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION (FAO), WORLD FOOD PROGRAM 
(WFP), OFFICE FOR THE COORDINATION OF HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 
(OCHA), EUROPEAN COMMISSION (EC), THE FDRE DISASTER PREVENTION AND 
PREPAREDNESS AGENCY (DPPA), REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVES FROM OROMIYA, 
SNNPR, AFAR, AND SOMALI AND USAID PARTICIPATED IN THE WORKSHOP. 
SCENARIOS INCLUDED THE EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT LEVELS OF RAIN FAILURE, 
PLUS THE EFFECTS OF REDUCED MARKET ACCESS IN PARTS OF SOMALI REGION. 
THE OBJECTIVE WAS TO PROVIDE CRITICAL AND TIMELY INFORMATION THAT 
CAN SERVE AS AN INPUT TO GOVERNMENT-LED CONTINGENCY PLANNING. 
 
¶4.  CONTINGENCY PLANNING SHOULD BE BASED UPON RELIABLE ESTIMATES OF 
THE LIKELY SCALE OF NEED. DUE TO THE RECENT COMPLETION OF HEA 
BASELINE PROFILES IN OROMIYA'S PASTORALIST LIVELIHOOD ZONE, 
HOUSEHOLD ECONOMY BASELINE DATA IS NOW AVAILABLE FOR ALL THE 
AFFECTED AREAS. [BASELINE PROFILES FOR AFAR, SOMALI, AND SNNPR HAVE 
ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.] THE OPPORTUNITY EXISTED FOR THE FIRST TIME 
TO DEVELOP SUCH ESTIMATES FOR ALL THE POTENTIALLY AFFECTED AREAS 
USING A COMMON LIVELIHOODS-BASED ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY - THE HEA. 
THIS IS NOW THE OFFICIALLY ACCEPTED METHOD FOR ESTIMATING EMERGENCY 
NEEDS IN ETHIOPIA. 
 
¶5.  HEA IS A UNIQUE LIVELIHOODS-BASED FRAMEWORK DESIGNED TO PROVIDE 
A CLEAR AND ACCURATE REPRESENTATION OF THE INSIDE WORKINGS OF 
HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIES. THIS PICTURE CAN BE USED FOR A WIDE RANGE OF 
PURPOSES, INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, EARLY 
WARNING, POVERTY ANALYSIS AND REDUCTION, AND POLICY ANALYSIS. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
HOUSEHOLD ECONOMY APPROACH (HEA) TO CONTINGENCY PLANNING 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶6.  FEWSNET DEVELOPED TWO MAIN SCENARIOS, ONE FOR 'BAD' RAINS OR 
50-60 PER CENT OF NORMAL, AND ONE FOR 'VERY BAD' RAINS OR 20-30 PER 
CENT OF NORMAL.  BOTH SCENARIOS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO SHOW THE 
IMPACT OF REDUCTIONS TO MARKET ACCESS FOR INSECURE AREAS IN THE 
SOMALI REGION.  BASIC PARAMETERS FOR EACH SCENARIO WERE DEVELOPED BY 
LIVESTOCK EXPERTS ALONG WITH HEA PRACTIONERS AND INCLUDED INPUTS 
SUCH AS THE EXPECTED LEVEL OF MILK OUTPUT, LIVESTOCK MORTALITY, AND 
LIVESTOCK PRICES.  THE ANALYSIS ALSO CONSIDERED THE DIFFERENT TYPES 
OF COPING STRATEGIES THAT MAY BE EMPLOYED LIKE INCREASED LIVESTOCK 
SALES AND/OR SLAUGHTERED AND INCREASES IN CHARCOAL COLLECTION. 
 
¶7.  HEA ANALYSIS USES A DUAL PROTECTION THRESHOLD MODEL TO EXPRESS 
VULNERABILITY TO SHOCKS AND TO GUIDE RESPONSE.  THE LIVELIHOODS 
PROTECTION THRESHOLD IS THE LINE BELOW WHICH AN INTERVENTION IS 
REQUIRED IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN EXISTING LIVELIHOOD ASSETS AND 
STRATEGIES. IT REPRESENTS THE TOTAL INCOME REQUIRED TO SUSTAIN LOCAL 
LIVELIHOODS. THE SURVIVAL THRESHOLD IS THE LINE BELOW WHICH 
INTERVENTION IS REQUIRED TO SAVE LIVES. IT REPRESENTS THE TOTAL 
INCOME REQUIRED TO COVER: A) 100% OF MINIMUM FOOD ENERGY NEEDS (2100 
KCALS PER PERSON), PLUS B) THE COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FOOD 
PREPARATION AND CONSUMPTION (I.E. SALT, SOAP, KEROSENE AND/OR 
FIREWOOD FOR COOKING AND BASIC LIGHTING), PLUS C) ANY EXPENDITURE ON 
WATER FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION.  THE THRESHOLDS PROVIDE A LIVELIHOODS 
GROUNDED AND EVIDENCE-BASED REFERENCE POINT AGAINST WHICH TO JUDGE 
THE LIKELY OUTCOME OF DIFFERENT EVENTS OR POLICY SHIFTS, AND TO PLAN 
ACCORDINGLY. THEY SHOW JUST HOW MUCH OF A GAP WILL BE LEFT, AND IN 
THIS WAY PROVIDE GUIDANCE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE REQUIRED RESPONSE. 
 
 
-------------- 
RESULTS OF HEA 
-------------- 
 
¶8.  RESULTS FROM BOTH THE "BAD" AND "VERY BAD" RAIN SCENARIOS 
INDICATE THAT AN EXTREMELY WORRYING SITUATION MAY BE DEVELOPING IN 
THE ETHIOPIA'S PASTORALIST AND AGROPASTORALIST AREAS.  POOR AND VERY 
POOR HOUSEHOLDS, WHO MAKE UP MORE THAN 40 PER CENT OF THE POPULATION 
IN THE AREA CONSIDERED, FACE SERIOUS THREATS NOT ONLY TO THEIR 
LIVELIHOODS BUT TO THE ABILITY TO SURVIVE WITHOUT USING NEGATIVE AND 
RESOURCE DEPLETING COPING STRATEGIES. 
 
----------------------------------- 
PREPARING FOR AN APPEAL IN ETHIOPIA 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  THE PROCESS USED IN ETHIOPIA FOR CONTINGENCY PLANNING HAS 
TRADITIONALLY INVOLVED THE COMPARISON OF PAST EXAMPLES OF NORMAL, 
POOR, AND VERY POOR YEARS (AND THE BENEFICIARY NUMBERS FROM THOSE 
YEARS) TO EXPECTED CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BEST, MID, AND WORST CASE 
SCENARIOS. THE HEA SCENARIOS SHOULD PROVIDE EVIDENCE BASED ESTIMATES 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SCENARIOS. 
¶10.  DPPA'S POLICY, PROGRAMS, AND PLANS DEPARTMENT (PPPD) IS 
RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING AND COORDINATING CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR 
THE FDRE.  WHILE THE PPPD DETERMINES POTENTIAL FOOD NEEDS, THE 
REMAINING SECTOR PLANS (WATER AND SANITATION, HEALTH, AGRICULTURE) 
ARE CONSTRUCTED BY THE APPROPRIATE LINE MINISTRY.  THE PPPD THEN 
INTEGRATES ALL OF THE SECTOR SPECIFIC PLANS INTO A COMPREHENSIVE 
DOCUMENT. THE FDRE MULTI-DONOR PRODUCTIVE SAFETY NET PROGRAM 
(PSNP)PROVIDES SIX MONTHS OF FOOD OR CASH TRANSFERS FOR ABOUT EIGHT 
MILLION CHRONICALLY FOOD INSECURE PEOPLE IN SIX REGIONS OF ETHIOPIA. 
THE PSNP HAS BUILT INTO ITS DESIGN A 20% CONTINGENCY THAT CAN COVER 
MILD TO MODERATE SHOCKS ABOVE THE CHRONIC FOOD INSECURITY NEEDS IN 
PSNP WOREDAS. 
 
¶11.  THE DPPA PLANS TO LAUNCH AN APPEAL DURING THE WEEK OF MARCH 31. 
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE APPEAL WILL INCLUDE RESULTS OF HEA SCENARIO 
EXERCISES. THE APPEAL IS BASED ON CONTINGENCY PLANNING AND CONSIDERS 
THAT PSNP PLAYS A ROLE IN THE RESPONSE. 
 
YAMAMATO