VZCZCXYZ0003
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUNV #0164/01 0740853
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 140853Z MAR 08
FM USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7690
INFO RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIORITY 0160
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 0539
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE PRIORITY 0166
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 0532
RHEBAAA/DOE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEANFA/NRC WASHDC PRIORITY

S E C R E T UNVIE VIENNA 000164 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR IO, IO/T, ISN/MNSA, ISN/NESS, ISN/RA, EAP, WHA 
THE HAGUE FOR CWC DEL, AMBASSADOR JAVITS 
DOE FOR NA-24 SHEINMAN, MENDELSOHN, DALTON, GOODMAN, 
SIEMON/O'CONNOR 
NE FOR MCGINNIS, PEKO, LISANN, SYZMANSKI 
NA-20 FOR CONNERY 
NRC FOR OIP- DOANE, HENDERSON, SCHWARTZMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2018 
TAGS: AORC IAEA KNPP JA AR
SUBJECT: IAEA/DG SELECTION:  PFIRTER JOINS AMANO IN THE RACE 
 
REF: UNVIE 739 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte for Reasons 
1.4 b and d 
 
 ¶1. (S) Summary:  This cable is provided solely for the 
purpose of updating the Department on the state-of-play on 
IAEA DG succession.  Consistent with previous instructions, 
Mission is not engaging publicly or privately in this 
campaign.  The campaign for DG succession has coalesced 
around two more or less declared candidates, Japanese 
Ambassador Yukiya Amano and OPCW DG Rogelio Pfirter 
(Argentina).  Amano has solidified Asia group support for his 
candidacy and Japan expects U.S. support, though we have not 
taken a position.  Argentina has also approached Ambassador 
Schulte, who remained non-committal about Pfirter, and has 
begun to lobby other Board members.  If Pfirter wins the 
support of GRULAC, two regional groups may be pitted against 
one another, which could pave the way for an in-house 
candidate.  Both EXPO Director Vilmos Cserveny and Safeguards 
DDG Olli Heinonen have been mentioned as potential DG 
candidates. ElBaradei has not indicated interest in a 
re-election bid, but neither has he ruled it out.  He has 
until the October 2008 Board meeting following the General 
Conference to announce his intentions.  Procedures for 
selecting the DG are likely to be circulated to the Board in 
September, at which time the Secretariat would expect the 
Board to ratify the procedures.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Potential Amano-Pfirter Face-off 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (S) Japanese Ambassador Amano's candidacy has gained 
momentum in the last few months, with the strong support of 
his government.  According to Australian Ambassador Shannon, 
Amano has solidified Asia group support (Note: This would 
indicate that former Australian FM Gareth Evans is not in the 
running. End note.)  Japan has pulled out all the stops for 
Amano, even inviting African Board of Governors members on 
all expense paid junkets to Tokyo.  Japanese DCM Sumi 
recently approached DCM about Amano's candidacy, possibly in 
response to the prospect of an Argentine candidacy.  DCM 
reiterated that the U.S. is not taking a position and 
reminded him that, as Ambassador Schulte had cautioned Amano, 
U.S. support could be counterproductive.  Sumi nevertheless 
surmised that Japan expected the U.S. eventually to back 
Amano. 
 
¶3. (S) While some Vienna diplomats had earlier mentioned the 
possibility of OPCW DG Rogelio Pfirter's candidacy, shortly 
before the March 3 Board meeting, Argentina began actively 
campaigning on his behalf.  During the meeting, Argentine 
Ambassador Curia approached Ambassador Schulte saying that 
Argentina was exploring Pfirter's candidacy with Board 
members and "traditional" allies in the region.  Pfirter's 
former Chief of Staff Rafael Mariano Grossi of the MFA 
accompanied Curia, who explained that Pfirter had all the 
right qualities and was well-respected for his record of 
managerial accomplishment in The Hague.  Ambassador Schulte 
stipulated, per instructions, that the U.S. is not backing 
any candidate for IAEA DG but noted that U.S.-OPCW Ambassador 
Javitz held Pfirter in high regard.  Grossi and Curia were 
busy lobbying at the Board meeting, systematically pulling 
aside other key Governors such as the UK and Germany.  Curia 
said they would approach about three-quarters of the Board. 
Argentina is also working on GRULAC members.  According to 
Board Chair and Chilean Ambassador Skoknic, Pfirter is 
well-known in Southern Cone countries but not as well in the 
broader Vienna-GRULAC group. 
 
¶4. (S) If Pfirter wins GRULAC support, GRULAC and the Asia 
group could be pitted against one another.  It is not clear 
that "Asia group" support for Amano extends to the Middle 
East South Asia group (MESA).  Another factor to consider is 
G-77 support on the Board.  A successful candidate for DG 
must win a two-thirds majority on the Board.  The DG has not 
indicated that he would seek a fourth term, but has until the 
October 2008 Board meeting following the General Conference 
to formally announce.   A disputed election could also pave 
the way for other internal candidates, and both Safeguards 
DDG Heinonen and EXPO Director Cserveny have been mentioned 
in this regard. 
 
--------- 
Timeframe 
--------- 
 
¶5. (C) Skoknic insists on deferring the DG succession race 
until the end of his tenure as Board Chair in September 2008. 
 It is possible that the DG selection will therefore be 
overseen by Abdul Minty of South Africa, who appears to  be 
the leading Africa group candidate for Board Chair in 
2008-2009. 
 
¶6. (U) During the September Board meeting prior to the GC, 
the Board Chair will circulate the procedures for appointment 
of the DG, which were first adopted in 1997 and are not 
expected to be controversial.  The Board will also set the 
deadline for applications, likely to be December 31, 2008. 
 
¶7. (U) Under the procedures, the item "Appointment of the 
Director General" is placed on the agenda of the Board 
immediately following the 2008 General Conference.  During 
that Board meeting in October, the Board Chair will announce 
whether the DG is or is not available for a further term of 
office. 
 
¶8. (U) The Board Chair will report in the March 2009 Board 
meeting on his consultations regarding the candidates.  The 
June Board will elect the next DG, who must win two-thirds 
majority support in closed session balloting. 
 
¶9. (U) The September 2009 General Conference approves the 
appointment, and the new DG takes office on January 1, 2010. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (S) As the DG race goes into full swing, it will be 
increasingly difficult for the U.S. to remain on the 
side-lines.  The Japanese seem poised to make this a 
bilateral issue.  Already a well-placed South Korean diplomat 
said that he had heard "from Washington" that Pfirter was the 
U.S. preferred candidate.  Mission denied any such rumor and 
will continue to dodge the question whenever posed.  As the 
race tightens, however, one or the other leading candidate 
will seek and expect U.S. support, even if a public 
endorsement is counterproductive. 
SCHULTE