VZCZCXYZ5516
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTU #0194/01 0631700
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 031700Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY TUNIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4524
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

S E C R E T TUNIS 000194 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR NEA/FO - WELCH AND GRAY; NEA/MAG - HOPKINS AND HARRIS 
NSC FOR ABRAMS AND YERGER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2018 
TAGS: PREL PTER IR IZ SY LE SE XI
SUBJECT: A/S WELCH'S TOUR D'HORIZON WITH MINISTER OF 
FOREIGN AFFAIRS ABDALLAH 
 
REF: A. TUNIS 193 
     ¶B. TUNIS 84 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Robert F. Godec for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (S) In the course of several hours of interactions between 
NEA A/S  Welch and Foreign Minister Abdallah on February 28, 
Welch conveyed the latest US thinking on Lebanon, Syria, the 
proposed Arab League summit, Iraq, Iran, the 
Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and Kosovo, among other 
topics.  Abdallah responded that: 
 
-- He was not optimistic about a solution to the situation in 
Lebanon in the short term.  On the upcoming Arab League 
summit, the Syrians are convinced that postponing the summit 
would reflect badly on Syria.  Thus, the SARG is trying to 
convince Arab states to participate, notwithstanding the 
absence of a President in Lebanon. 
 
-- In the face of the Israeli siege on Gaza, Hamas had been 
able to win the sympathy of those who had previously rejected 
their separatism.  Tunisia would not be "against" the notion 
of moderate Arab states helping to create a public perception 
of momentum behind the negotiating process, but he also 
referred to the difficulty posed by the current situation on 
the ground. 
 
-- Tunisia has not "yet" recognized Kosovo; while the GOT 
favors self-determination, it does not want to make this 
decision in a "religious optic."  The GOT will also take into 
consideration discussions on the matter at the upcoming OIC 
summit in Dakar. 
 
Abdallah also previewed that the GOT would "soon" reopen its 
Embassy in Qatar, notwithstanding the GOT's continued 
displeasure with al-Jazeera's hostile media coverage 
vis-a-vis Tunisia.  Abdallah's mood was positive and his tone 
friendly.  He was visibly pleased with the visit and 
positively beamed when talking about President Ben Ali's 
satisfaction with it.  End Summary. 
 
2.(C) Following the lengthy meeting between NEA A/S Welch and 
President Ben Ali, which Foreign Minister Abdelwaheb Abdallah 
attended (Ref A), the FM hosted a working lunch for Welch, 
the Ambassador, Executive Assistant to the Deputy National 
Security Advisor, NEA Staff Assistant and Pol/EconCouns.  The 
lunch was followed by an extended office call.  The mood in 
both was friendly and the conversation relaxed.  Abdallah 
started the lunch by commenting on how "at ease" President 
Ben Ali had been: "It was clear that he felt he was speaking 
with a friend and not just an American official." 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Lebanon/Syria/Iran and the Arab League Summit 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Turning to the prospect of a new president being 
elected in Lebanon, A/S Welch laid out three possible 
scenarios:  (a) Election of a president by consensus; (b) 
Election by 50 percent plus one; or (c) No election -- a 
continuation of the current situation, with authorities in 
place exercising controls of government.  He continued that 
the USG would prefer to see a president elected, but not at 
any price.  Thus, we need to be prepared for the third 
option.  Abdallah responded that there does not appear to be 
a sense of urgency in Lebanon to elect a president.  Rather, 
the Lebanese people are getting used to the notion that their 
institutions can keep running, even without a president in 
place. 
 
¶4. (C) Abdallah said that he was not optimistic that a 
solution would be found in the near future.  The problem, he 
said, is not just Syria, but also Iran.  He attributed the 
"rigid attitude of Hizballah" to the confidence on the part 
of Hizballah leaders that Iran will back them up.  The FM 
referred to a conversation he had had with his Iranian 
counterpart, whom he said had asked for Tunisia's assistance 
in persuading African states that they would benefit from 
improved relations with Iran.  Abdallah said he took the 
opportunity to ask his counterpart to help "smooth things 
out" with Hizballah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.  The 
response, he said, was clear: "Hizballah and Hamas are simply 
following their destiny." 
 
 
¶5. (C) A/S Welch asked FM Abdallah for his views on how the 
Arab League summit planned for March 5-6 would play out. 
Abdallah responded that the Syrians are in the midst of a 
campaign to convince member states to participate in the 
summit.  His assessment was that the Syrians seem to believe 
that postponing the summit would reflect badly on Syria. 
Asked how the situation would likely play out if it is not 
postponed, Abdallah predicted that "most" Arab countries, 
except Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and perhaps some Gulf countries, 
would follow Syria's urgings and participate in the summit. 
Jordan, he continued, has not yet decided.  Tunisia would 
participate, but not at the presidential level (Ref A).  He 
explained that the GOT does not want to jeopardize its 
"excellent" bilateral relations with Syria, including in the 
realm of counter-terrorism cooperation. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
No Promises On Sending a Positive Signal 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Expanding on his earlier discussion with President Ben 
Ali on the matter, A/S Welch laid out the US perspective on 
Israeli-Palestinian developments.  On the one hand, there is 
progress on the bilateral negotiating track.  While the 
substance of the Israeli-Palestinian talks is being kept 
secret, Welch opined that the content was "encouraging."  At 
 
SIPDIS 
the same time, the deterioration in the situation on the 
ground is problematic.  Among other things, it poses risks to 
both the government of Palestinian Prime Minister Abbas and 
the coalition led by Israeli Prime Minister Olmert. 
 
¶7. (S) In this context, Welch explored with Abdallah current 
US thinking on how best to protect the negotiation track in 
the face of risks to it on the ground.  He emphasized the 
importance of demonstrating that the negotiation track will 
yield tangible results to the Israeli and Palestinian people. 
 On the Palestinian side, one way to accomplish this would be 
by addressing the hardships of occupation.  On the Israeli 
side, he said, there are various ideas about how to signal to 
the Israeli people that they too will benefit from peace. 
While respecting the confidentiality of the talks, Welch 
suggested that there were other means to demonstrate 
momentum, whether through a revival of the multilateral talks 
or through other engagement.  Welch urged "creative thinking" 
among moderate Arab states about how to send such a signal, 
noting that countries like Morocco and Bahrain had indicated 
quietly that they would be willing to help.  He underscored 
that those in the Israeli cabinet who are prepared to pay the 
cost of a settlement would benefit from much-needed 
credibility among their peers as a result of such moves. 
¶8. (C) Abdallah said that the GOT is "not against" such an 
approach.  At the same time, he said, the problem for 
moderate countries like Tunisia is the situation on the 
ground.  Echoing comments he had made previously to the 
Ambassador (Ref B), Abdallah expressed disappointment that 
the Israeli blockade of Gaza had been a "gift" to Hamas 
leaders, who had been able to exploit the situation to 
portray Hamas as "martyrs" and win the sympathy of the 
population.  "It's as if the people have completely forgotten 
that they were separatists!" he exclaimed.  Referring to the 
expected visit to Tunisia of Palestinian President Abbas in 
March, Abdallah undertook to brief Ambassador Godec on the 
substance of his meetings. 
 
--------- 
Iraq/Iran 
--------- 
 
¶9. (C) A/S Welch briefed the FM on recent developments in 
Iraq, explaining the logic behind US policy.  He noted that 
there is increasing contact between Arab countries and Iraqi 
representatives, and answered affirmatively to Abdallah's 
question about the likelihood of Saudi Arabia reopening its 
Embassy.  In response to Abdallah's query about Iranian 
influence in Iraq, Welch noted that there has been some 
success in interrupting contact between the al-Quds brigade 
of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and certain Shi'a 
militias in Iraq. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
The Threat of Extremism in North Africa, Egypt 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶10. (C) Abdallah noted with pride that Tunisians have 
traditionally been characterized as a "rational" people, 
unlike many other Arab nationals, including in North Africa, 
 
where the phenomenon of Islamic extremism is on the rise. 
A/S Welch asked for clarification about comments President 
Ben Ali had made about the "explosiveness" of the region and 
in Egypt in particular.  The FM explained that there is a 
perception that the United States has "more or less" 
abandoned the GOE, just as Egypt is facing broadening support 
for radical Islamists.  Welch made clear that the strategic 
relationship between the United States and Egypt is intact. 
Abdallah blamed Arab media outlets, such as al-Jazeera, for 
fanning the flames of extremism, noting that the GOT had 
closed its Embassy in Qatar in October, 2006, to protest 
al-Jazeera's coverage.  He previewed, however, that the GOT 
would "soon" reopen its Embassy in Qatar.  The GOT remains 
incensed over the "ferociousness" of its coverage of Tunisia, 
but he had concluded that it did not make sense to "cut the 
thread" completely. 
 
---------------- 
Kosovo:  Not Yet 
---------------- 
 
¶11. (C) Asked about GOT policy vis-a-vis Kosovo, Abdallah 
responded that Tunisia has not "yet" recognized Kosovo.  He 
explained that while the GOT favors self-determination it 
does not want to make this decision in a "religious optic." 
For now, Abdallah said, Tunisia is waiting and seeing how 
other countries react.  He expressed surprise that no African 
country had yet recognized Kosovo as an independent state. 
Indicating that he would be leading the Tunisian delegation 
to the OIC summit in Dakar, Abdallah said he planned to take 
advantage of this opportunity to sound out neighboring 
countries from Africa and the Arab world.  Asked if the GOT 
had been lobbied on this matter by other countries, Abdallah 
acknowledged that the Greek Foreign Minister had just 
concluded a visit to Tunisia.  huckling, he pointed out that 
her meeting with Pesident Ben Ali had lasted only 45 
minutes, whil A/S Welch's had been an hour longer.  The 
Serbins asked the MFA for its position on the matter without 
trying to influence them, Abdallah continued.  Queried about 
any Russian contact, he said that they had only been active 
at the Ambassadorial level in Tunisia. 
 
------------------------------- 
Topics for Next US-AMU Meeting? 
------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (C) A/S Welch suggested that if the October 2007 
discussions on the margins of the UNGA between then-U/S Burns 
and the foreign ministers of the Maghreb states serves as a 
model for future such discussions, it would make sense to 
include on the agenda more discussion of African issues, such 
as Sudan and Chad.  Abdallah agreed, suggesting that the 
issue of Somalia could also be added to the agenda. 
 
-------- 
Bio Note 
-------- 
 
¶13. (C) At one point in the conversation, Abdallah made 
reference to the comedy program, "The Daily Show with Jon 
Stewart."  He said that it is one of his favorite TV 
programs, and that he and his children watch it regularly via 
satellite. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶14. (S)  Abdallah was in high spirits and seemed genuinely 
pleased with the visit.  He visibly beamed when relating Ben 
Ali's positive assessment of his meeting with Welch. 
Throughout the lunch and subsequent meeting, Abdallah's mood 
was positive and his tone friendly.  The FM appeared willing 
to consider outreach to Israel, but the current situation in 
Gaza is clearly problematic for him.  We will, however, 
continue to explore options and ideas with the FM.  The GOT's 
foreign policy is among the most moderate in the region and 
the FM has already met quietly with FM Livni.  Ongoing, 
high-level contact with the Tunisians may yet yield some 
success.  End Comment. 
 
¶15. (U) A/S Welch did not have an opportunity to clear this 
cable. 
 
Please visit Embassy Tunis' Classified Website at: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/tunis/index.c fm 
GODEC